+1-212-816-0325 andrew.hollenhorst@citi.com V i e w p o i n t | 13 Jun 2025 16:28:31 ET │ 21 pages US Economics Weekly Dovish developments CITI'S TAKE Upside risks to inflation are reduced after May inflation data showed no impact from tariffs on goods prices (yet) and services prices that have slowed further. Meanwhile, the rise in continuing jobless claims suggests that the labor market is loosening despite last week's 139k new jobs and still-low 4.2% unemployment rate. These developments likely will cast ...

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The Fed's latest round of projections released Wednesday will include the muchstudied dot plot. It's a chart updated quarterly that shows each Fed officials prediction about the direction of the central bank's benchmark interest rate. Our next guest, however, is in the camp of no cuts from the Fed for the remainder of the year.We got Kenny Pulcari here, a Slatestone Wealth chief market strategist and host of the Yahoo Finance podcast, Trader Talk. So, each one of those little dots represents a member of the ...

Core Insights - Bank of America (BAC) is highly sensitive to interest rate changes, benefiting from a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve last year, which positively impacted its net interest income (NII) [1] - The company anticipates a sequential rise in NII for all quarters in 2025, with expectations of reaching $15.5-$15.7 billion in Q4 2025, driven by strong loan demand and higher interest rates [3][8] - The bank's aggressive branch expansion strategy aims to enhance customer relationships and tap into new markets, with plans to open over 150 financial centers by 2027 [7][9] Net Interest Income (NII) Outlook - NII is expected to rise 6-7% in 2025, supported by solid loan demand, robust deposit balances, and a stable economic environment [2][3] - The company projects NII growth to accelerate in the second half of 2025, with a target of $15.7 billion in Q4 [3][8] Investment Banking (IB) Performance - The investment banking sector has faced challenges, with IB fees declining over 20% in Q2 2025 due to tariff-related uncertainties affecting deal-making [14][17] - Despite a significant drop in IB fees in previous years, there was a 31.4% year-over-year increase in 2024, indicating potential recovery [14][15] Asset Quality Concerns - Bank of America has experienced a deterioration in asset quality, with provisions increasing significantly over the past few years due to a challenging macroeconomic outlook [19][20] - The company remains cautious about the impact of high interest rates on borrowers' credit profiles, which may further affect asset quality [20] Shareholder Returns and Valuation - The company has increased its quarterly dividend by 8% to 26 cents per share and has a payout ratio of 31% of earnings, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [12] - Bank of America stock is currently trading at a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.66X, which is below the industry average of 2.83X, indicating it may be undervalued [24][26] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have a positive outlook for Bank of America, with earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 indicating growth of 12.2% and 15.6%, respectively [21][22] - The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 Index over the past three months, gaining 6.4% [27][30]

One way or another, you have to bring debt the deficit not only in the United States but other places but I'm focusing on the United States down to from a supply demand point of view down to about 3%. So that's the 3% of GDP that that's an amount that the market I think can digest. Um it will um affect also the supply demand.There are when I say three parts I think when we think of budgets we think of taxes and spending um but also interest has a huge effect. um a 1% change in the interest rate, 100 basis p ...

All right, let's talk markets. Ahead of a big week, investors paying close attention to fighting between Israel and Iran as well as the Fed. The central bank's going to be issuing its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday.And right now, we want to bring in Lori Calvacina. She is head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. And Lori, we thought we had a little bit of idea of how the markets were headed.We've been looking at inflation coming down. We thought maybe that was going to help the Fed get ...

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These days, waiting for the Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark interest rate is a bit like waiting for Godot: the arrival date for the long-anticipated monetary policy move keeps getting pushed into the future. https://t.co/X4M4yzK9FN ...

Company Overview - Texas Capital (TCBI) shares increased by 5.1% to $76.05 in the last trading session, with a notable trading volume compared to its previous 0.3% loss over the past four weeks [1] - The company is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.29 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 61.3%, with revenues projected at $298.92 million, up 12% from the same quarter last year [3] Earnings and Market Sentiment - Solid job market data has led to expectations of interest rate cuts being pushed to later in the year, which is likely to benefit banks' net interest income and margin, resulting in increased investor optimism towards Texas Capital stock [2] - The consensus EPS estimate for Texas Capital has been revised slightly higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions that typically correlates with stock price appreciation [4] Industry Context - Texas Capital is part of the Zacks Banks - Southwest industry, where Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) also operates, having closed 2.3% higher at $129.22 in the last trading session [4] - Cullen/Frost's consensus EPS estimate remains unchanged at $2.27, representing a 2.7% increase from the previous year, and it also holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5]

Report Date - The report was released on June 4, 2025 [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On June 3, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.456%, 4.637%, 3.189% respectively. Latest changes ranged from -0.031% (Switzerland) to 0.053% (US). One - month changes were between -0.069% (Italy and Switzerland) and 0.348% (Japan). One - year changes were from -0.984% (Japan) to 0.378% (UK) [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On June 3, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany were 3.920%, 4.021%, 1.781% respectively. Latest changes were from -0.040% (US) to 0.017% (Japan). One - month changes were between -0.040% (US) and 0.224% (UK). One - year changes were from -1.559% (Italy) to 0.410% (Japan) [3] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On June 3, 2025, exchange rates against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc. were 5.638, 108.000 respectively. Latest changes were from -1.48% (Brazil) to 0.00% (Russia and Thai baht). One - month changes were between -4.00% (South Africa) and 0.00% (Russia). One - year changes were from -10.12% (Thailand) to 9.59% (Brazil) [3] Exchange Rates of the Renminbi - On June 3, 2025, on - shore, off - shore, and mid - price were 7.188, 7.192, 7.187 respectively. Latest changes were from -0.19% (off - shore) to 0.03% (mid - price). One - month changes were between -1.24% (12 - month NDF) and -0.20% (mid - price). One - year changes were from -0.91% (off - shore) to 1.08% (mid - price) [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On June 3, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq were 5970.370, 42519.640, 19398.960 respectively. Latest changes were from -0.35% (Mexico) to 1.49% (Nasdaq). One - month changes were between -4.40% (Japan) and 11.19% (Nasdaq). One - year changes were from -7.73% (Malaysia) to 28.89% (Germany's DAX) [3] Credit Bond Indices - Latest changes were from -0.16% (US investment - grade) to 0.30% (emerging - market high - yield). One - month changes were between -0.17% (US investment - grade) and 2.08% (emerging - market high - yield). One - year changes were from 5.61% (US investment - grade) to 12.64% (emerging - market high - yield) [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - On June 3, 2025, the A - share, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 closed at 3361.98, 3852.01, 2687.30, 2002.70, 5694.84 respectively, with daily changes of 0.43%, 0.31%, 0.32%, 0.48%, 0.42% [4] Valuation - PE (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 12.50, 10.89, 28.78 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.04, 0.03, 0.13 [4] Risk Premium - Risk premiums of the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 3.70, 5.77, -0.38 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00 [4] Fund Flows - Latest values of A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were -52.19, -92.88, -56.21, 27.04, 3.71 respectively. Five - day average values were -314.36, -258.20, -56.21, -50.29, -27.17 [4] Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext were 11414.09, 2267.83, 590.77, 2513.97, 3071.27 respectively, with环比 changes of 22.30, 273.93, 14.34, -76.51, -139.14 [4] Main Contract Premiums and Discounts - Basis of IF, IH, and IC were -27.21, -18.70, -56.44 respectively, with amplitudes of -0.71%, -0.70%, -0.99% [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - On June 3, 2025, T00, TF00, T01, TF01 closed at 108.460, 105.690, 108.685, 105.960 respectively, with no daily changes [5] - R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4641%, 1.5877%, 1.6520% respectively, with daily changes of -24.00 BP, -11.00 BP, 0.00 BP [5]