Chile’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time this year as a weak jobs market crimps activity and a slowdown in inflation deepens https://t.co/0LILYAZbeH ...

Student Loan Interest Jumps This Week For 7.7 Million Borrowers https://t.co/8PRTTXXKh5 https://t.co/LYR6CYx2JH ...

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady and boost its inflation outlook, as investors look for hints of another rate hike this year after a US-Japan trade deal reduced some uncertainty https://t.co/Q3KRaJEOU6 ...

Federal Reserve officials are unlikely to cut their influential interest rate in their two-day meeting this week, despite pressure from President Donald Trump. https://t.co/cYPQf8sLoM ...

Market Outlook - State Street Investment Management 认为贸易改善将持续，预计 USMCA 谈判将在今年晚些时候进行，加拿大和墨西哥的贸易状况良好 [1][2][5] - 减税政策将为许多公司带来自由现金流，尤其是在研发方面投入较多的公司 [2] - 美元疲软利好标普 500 指数成分股公司，因为其超过 40% 的收入来自美国境外，尤其对科技公司有利 [2] - 只要盈利同比增长，就不会出现经济衰退 [2] - 季节性疲软期通常在 8 月至 10 月，在此期间财政部重建财政部一般账户会从系统中抽取流动性 [9] Interest Rate Policy - 预计美联储将降息 [2][3] - Waller 和 Bowman 可能对降息决策持不同意见，这将是 30 多年来首次有两位美联储理事对利率决策持不同意见 [4] - 贸易政策的明朗化（与英国、越南、印度尼西亚、日本、菲律宾和欧盟的协议，以及与中国有望取得突破）为美联储开始或恢复降息提供了理由 [5] - 财政部将在第三季度增加借款，可能导致利率上升，即使美联储不降息 [9][10] Potential Risks - 如果贸易倒退，市场可能面临风险 [6] - 上诉法院将就贸易协议的合法性举行听证会，如果这些协议被认定为非法，可能会对市场产生影响 [6] - 特朗普政府拥有其他工具（如第 122 条和第 322 条）来维持关税政策 [7][8]

Earnings Reports - Q2 earnings season is ramping up with major companies like Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Amazon set to report earnings this week [2][3] - A total of 164 companies in the S&P 500 are expected to release their earnings results by August 1st [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, maintaining the current rate of +4.25-4.50% [4] - There is only a 2% chance that the Fed will cut rates at this meeting, with a 67% probability of a 25 basis-point cut in September [5] Labor Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims have decreased to 217K, but the labor market may be weakening as ADP reported a negative -33K jobs filled in June, the first decline in over two years [7] - The BLS report indicated +147K new jobs in June, but only about 70K were outside government hires, which may not be sufficient to offset the retiring workforce [8]

Hey, Vivian. >> Hey, Brian. So happy to be here to chat.>> So, let's talk a little bit about just like zooming out because borrowers have had an emotional roller coaster of confusion in the last few years over this, right. >> Yes, absolutely. And I mean, let's just be honest, this system has never been that clear, cut, and dry.Before, you know, some of the programs we have now, there was pay P a yee. There was repay re-ay. Then there was the save plan, which obviously was struck down by a federal court.Now ...

Russia’s central bank slashed its key interest rate to the lowest level in nearly a year amid growing worries the cooling economy could tip into recession https://t.co/5xpyMLrFjP ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the economy and financial markets, particularly focusing on the upcoming FOMC meeting in July 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Stance**: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a "wait-and-see" approach during the July meeting, with no changes to the federal funds rate or balance sheet policies [6][8][9]. 2. **Dissenting Opinions**: Governors Waller and Bowman are anticipated to dissent in favor of a 25 basis point reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate, indicating differing views within the committee [6][10]. 3. **Economic Assessment**: The economic activity is described as expanding at a "solid" pace, with a low unemployment rate of 4.1% and inflation remaining "somewhat elevated" [11][15][38]. 4. **Inflation Dynamics**: The recent inflation data suggests tariff-induced pressures, but it is deemed too early for the Fed to alter its inflation assessment significantly [15][21][22]. 5. **Future Rate Cuts**: The forecast indicates no rate cuts in 2025, with the economy expected to be further from the Fed's price stability mandate than from full employment [6][30][31]. 6. **Curve Flattening Risks**: There is an acknowledgment of curve-flattening risks following the FOMC meeting and the Treasury quarterly refunding announcement, suggesting a strategic approach to manage these risks [6][59]. 7. **USD Outlook**: The USD is expected to weaken over time as US yields decline relative to those in the Euro Area, with sensitivity to front-end rate movements [62][66]. 8. **Mortgage Market Focus**: The mortgage market is anticipated to remain focused on future Fed paths and regulatory updates, with current demand being tepid, particularly from banks and overseas investors [80][87]. Additional Important Content 1. **Labor Market Insights**: The labor market is characterized by a two-speed dynamic, with low unemployment coexisting with softer payroll growth, indicating a complex economic environment [16][32]. 2. **Regulatory Environment**: There is ongoing discussion about bank regulation, with expectations for more clarity and potential impacts on bank demand for mortgages [80][81]. 3. **Trade Ideas**: Specific trade ideas are suggested, including maintaining long positions in certain UST and SOFR swap spreads, indicating a proactive investment strategy [61]. 4. **Market Reactions**: The market's reaction to the Fed's communications will depend on the emphasis placed by Chair Powell on inflation risks versus the potential for rate cuts [23][29]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, economic assessments, and market implications.

The Bank of Russia has room for a deeper cut to its key interest rate amid slowing inflation and growing pressure from officials and businesses to save the economy from sliding into recession https://t.co/B8we14faQx ...