June 27, 2025 06:17 PM GMT US Credit Strategy: 1Q25 Fundamentals Modest Deterioration, but Interest Coverage a Bright Spot M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H North America Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Vishwas Patkar Strategist Vishwas.Patkar@morganstanley.com +1 212.761.8041 Joyce Jiang Strategist Joyce.Jiang@morganstanley.com +1 212.761.0165 Karen Chen Strategist Karen.Chen@morganstanley.com +1 212.761.1199 Christina Sigler Strategist Christina.Sigler@morganstanley.com +1 212.761.4116 Source: Bloomberg, ...

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Key Observations on Bitcoin Treasury Companies - Bitcoin treasury companies are accumulating Bitcoin on their balance sheets, a strategy pioneered by Michael Sailor [1] - Around 130 publicly traded companies have added Bitcoin to their treasuries, and that number keeps growing [4] - These companies raise capital by issuing shares or convertible bonds to buy Bitcoin [5][6] - The stocks of these companies trade like leveraged Bitcoin plays, with prices moving more than Bitcoin's price [10] - Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028 due to this accumulation [26] - Over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply is held by public companies, and could eventually reach one-third [27] Risks and Concerns - These companies are using leverage to fund Bitcoin purchases, which poses a risk [14] - If Bitcoin falls below $9,000, nearly half of these companies could be underwater [16] - Most Bitcoin treasury companies trade at a premium, which may not be sustainable [18][20] - Some companies might take on more aggressive strategies to maintain elevated stock prices [20]

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Crypto Leverage Overview - 加密货币市场中的杠杆使用会放大价格波动，对市场产生重大影响 [1] - 投资者主要通过两种方式获得杠杆：抵押贷款和通过期货或永续合约进行杠杆交易 [1] - 强制平仓会加剧市场崩盘，而杠杆空头挤压会导致价格意外上涨 [1] Collateralized Lending - 2021 年第四季度，加密货币抵押贷款市场达到近 650 亿美元的峰值 [1] - 截至 2025 年第一季度，中心化金融 (CFI) 平台的未偿借款约为 135 亿美元，环比增长约 9% [1] - Tether 在 CFI 借贷市场中占据主导地位，持有 65% 的份额，透明度不足是 CFI 借贷的一个主要问题 [1] - 截至 2025 年第一季度末，去中心化金融 (DeFi) 借贷的未偿借款约为 177 亿美元，环比下降超过 21% [1] - Pendle 代币被引入到 Aave 中，由于其高贷款价值比率，显著提升了 DeFi 借贷活动 [1] Borrowing Trends - 稳定币借款利率大幅下降，从 1 月份的约 12% 降至 5 月下旬的约 5%，降幅达 57% [2] - 链上比特币借款保持相对较低和稳定，而链下比特币借款利率仍然较高 [2] - 以太坊借款利率始终高于质押以太坊 (ST ETH) 的利率，机构投资者通常在链下借入 ETH 以做空以太坊或将其用作现金贷款的抵押品 [2] Debt Issuance by Crypto Treasury Companies - 截至 2025 年 5 月下旬，比特币国库公司总共持有高达 1227 亿美元的未偿债务，其中 MicroStrategy 占近 65% [2] - 这些公司面临着双重风险：如果比特币价格在债务到期时显著降低，可能会被迫出售大量 BTC；如果股票价格上涨，投资者可以将债务转换为公司股份，这可能会稀释现有股东的权益 [2] Crypto Futures Market - 2025 年初，加密货币期货市场交易活动和投资者参与度显著下降，但 4 月初市场信心开始恢复，5 月下旬未平仓合约大幅反弹，从约 680 亿美元增至 1160 亿美元 [3] - 机构投资者越来越倾向于在芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 等受监管的交易所进行交易，截至 5 月，CME 约占加密货币期货市场总额的 25% [3] - 永续期货 (Perp) 在零售交易者中越来越受欢迎，截至 5 月下旬，Perp 约占期货未平仓合约总额的 72%，达到约 840 亿美元 [3] - Hyperliquid 作为一个去中心化交易所，由于其无需 KYC 的特点，正在蚕食币安等传统中心化交易所的市场份额 [3] Market Implications and Risks - 随着牛市的进行，加密货币借贷市场正在强劲复苏，并可能显著增长 [3] - 随着越来越多的个人交易者和杠杆公司实体进行杠杆交易和借贷，下一次熊市可能会特别残酷 [3] - 如果加密货币国库公司没有足够的现金流或股价下跌，可能会被迫在最糟糕的时刻清算其加密货币持有量，从而引发广泛的强制抛售 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tariffs have created significant uncertainty for the S&P 500 and the retail sector, particularly affecting companies like Alibaba Group, which faces additional challenges due to tariffs on Chinese imports [1][2]. Group 1: Alibaba's Market Position - Alibaba Group's stock is currently priced at $113.38, with a 52-week range between $71.80 and $148.43, and a price target of $154.21, indicating a potential upside of 36.01% [2][9]. - The company is viewed as a leading blue-chip stock in China, likely to benefit from any rebound in the Chinese stock market before other stocks [4][14]. - Alibaba's diversification into cloud computing and software solutions mitigates its exposure to retail sector challenges posed by trade tariffs [8][12]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Options Activity - There has been a notable increase in call option buying for Alibaba, with approximately 1.4 million call options purchased, significantly above the usual volume of 319,800, indicating strong investor conviction [7]. - The current trading price reflects only 78% of Alibaba's 52-week highs, suggesting a potential for significant upside as market conditions improve [8][9]. Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - Analysts have set a new valuation for Alibaba stock at a high of $176 per share, representing a potential rally of up to 53% from its current level [10][11]. - Institutional capital has shown confidence in Alibaba, with $4.7 billion invested recently, signaling strong support from institutional investors [13]. - The overall thesis is that as China's economy rebounds, Alibaba is positioned to attract significant attention and capital, reinforcing its status as a leading investment opportunity [14].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the equity markets, focusing on positioning metrics and investor sentiment as of June 16, 2025, provided by Goldman Sachs (GS) FICC and Equities Division. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **CTA Positioning**: - CTAs have a long position of $78 billion, ranking in the 66th percentile. Recent estimates indicate insignificant changes in the next week and month, with a downside skew [2][4][39]. - In the last week, CTAs bought $3.5 billion in equities globally [2]. 2. **Performance Estimates**: - GS Equity Fundamental Long/Short (L/S) Performance Estimate rose by +0.07% from June 6 to June 12, compared to MSCI World TR which increased by +1.43%. This was driven by a beta of +0.70% but offset by an alpha of -0.64% due to losses on both sides [2]. - The GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance Estimate fell by -0.14% during the same period, driven by short side losses [2]. 3. **Market Flows**: - Over the next week, sellers are expected to sell $0.35 billion, while buyers are expected to buy $0.88 billion. In a down market, sellers are projected to sell $20.65 billion [4]. - For the next month, significant selling is anticipated at $130.93 billion, with buyers expected to purchase $14.23 billion [4]. 4. **Investor Sentiment**: - The Sentiment Indicator stands at -1.2, indicating persistently light investor positioning in US equities despite a 21% rally in the S&P 500 since April [53][55]. - Mutual fund and ETF flows have shown outflows of $17 billion in June, contributing to the negative sentiment [58]. 5. **Sector Performance**: - The industrial sector has been the most net bought in the US, with gross/net allocations at 12.8%/11.8%, ranking in the 99th/55th percentiles over the past year [41]. - Seven out of eleven global sectors were net bought, with healthcare, financials, energy, and utilities leading the way [42]. 6. **Professional Investor Positioning**: - Professional investors are maintaining cautious positioning, with a significant decline in demand for levered equity exposure noted since the beginning of 2025 [70][71]. - The demand for oil options has reached extreme levels, with call buying pushing the oil put-call skew to its most extreme level in over 25 years, indicating expectations for significant upside [73]. Additional Important Insights - The overall book gross leverage increased by 3.6 percentage points to 292.4%, while net leverage rose by 0.2 percentage points to 78% [39]. - The trading activity in Asia (both developed and emerging markets) saw the largest increase in over five years, driven by long buys outpacing short sales [41]. - The sentiment indicator's components tracking mutual fund and ETF flows have remained low, reflecting a cautious outlook among various investor types [56][58]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the equity markets, investor sentiment, and sector performance as analyzed by Goldman Sachs.

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market displayed mixed signals on May 29, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 gaining due to NVIDIA's strong quarterly results and a favorable ruling against Trump-imposed tariffs, while the Dow Jones declined amid economic outlook concerns and geopolitical uncertainties [1] Investment Strategy - In a volatile market, investors are advised to consider low-leverage stocks such as Novartis, ENGIE SA, MasTec, Dorman Products, and Sterling Infrastructure to mitigate potential losses [2] - Low-leverage stocks are preferred as they typically bear less financial risk, making them safer options during market turmoil [6][5] Understanding Leverage - Leverage refers to the practice of companies borrowing capital to operate and expand, primarily through debt financing, which can be risky if it does not yield returns exceeding the interest rate [4][5] - A lower debt-to-equity ratio indicates improved solvency and reduced financial risk for a company [7] Stock Selection Criteria - Stocks should have a debt-to-equity ratio lower than the industry median, a current price of at least $10, an average 20-day trading volume of 50,000 or more, and a percentage change in EPS greater than the industry median [11][12] - Additional criteria include a VGM Score of A or B, estimated one-year EPS growth greater than 5%, and a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 [12] Company Highlights - **Novartis**: Launched a tender offer to acquire Regulus Therapeutics for $7.00 per share, potentially enhancing its RNA-targeted therapies pipeline. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 sales suggests a 7.1% improvement from 2024, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 7.9% [14][15] - **ENGIE SA**: Reported a 5.6% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 2025 and has 8.5 GW of renewable and battery capacity under construction. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings indicates a 22.9% year-over-year improvement [16][17] - **MasTec**: Announced a 6% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2025, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 sales showing an 11% improvement and earnings expected to rise by 54.9% [17][18] - **Dorman Products**: Released hundreds of new automotive repair solutions, expanding its catalog and creating over 12 million new sales opportunities. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 sales indicates a 4.9% improvement [19][20] - **Sterling Infrastructure**: Reported a 7% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2025, with adjusted earnings per share surging by 29%. The company has a long-term earnings growth rate of 15% [21]

Core Viewpoint - Companies like AGNC Investment, Annaly Capital Management, and Delek Logistics Partners are identified as "monster dividend stocks" with yields exceeding 10%, making them attractive for generating passive income [1]. Group 1: AGNC Investment - AGNC Investment offers a dividend yield of over 16%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's yield of less than 1.5% [3]. - As a REIT, AGNC is required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable net income as dividends, contributing to its high yield [4]. - The company utilizes leverage to enhance returns, with potential returns in the low 20% range, but this strategy carries risks during market downturns [5]. Group 2: Annaly Capital Management - Annaly Capital Management, another mortgage REIT, has a dividend yield approaching 15% and has recently increased its dividend due to improved earnings [7]. - The REIT invests primarily in Agency MBS and has also ventured into higher-risk residential credit investments and mortgage servicing rights [6][8]. - Historical performance shows that Annaly has had to cut dividends in the past due to declining earnings, indicating a higher risk-reward profile [8]. Group 3: Delek Logistics Partners - Delek Logistics Partners operates as a master limited partnership (MLP) with a dividend yield of nearly 10.5%, the highest in the energy midstream sector [10]. - The MLP has consistently raised its distribution for 49 consecutive quarters, with a 3.7% increase over the past year [10]. - Its business model is supported by stable cash flows from long-term contracts, and it is diversifying its earnings by reducing reliance on its parent company [11].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the quarter ending March 31, 2025, the company reported net investment income before taxes of $700,000 or $0.05 per share, down from $0.06 per share in the prior quarter [4] - The net asset value per share increased by $0.02 to $5.42 compared to $5.39 as of September 30, 2024 [5] - The fair value of the portfolio was $192.4 million, up from $191.6 million on December 31 [14] - Net assets increased by $500,000 from the prior quarter to $78.1 million [14] - The weighted average yield of the debt portfolio increased to 10.8% from 10.4% in the previous quarter [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company invested in one new portfolio company and two existing portfolio companies during the quarter, with total fundings for new investments amounting to $5.1 million [10] - Realized investments totaled $7.3 million with an internal rate of return (IRR) of approximately 9.6% [10] - The largest industry concentrations by fair market value included professional services at 15.5%, containers and packaging at 9.2%, and trading companies and distributors at 8.6% [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a noticeable slowdown in new deal activity, particularly in M&A volume and sponsor-less financing [6] - Less than 20% of the portfolio may experience moderate direct effects from tariffs, with proactive measures being implemented to mitigate impacts [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on maintaining net asset value stability and sustainable net investment income while selectively deploying capital in high-quality opportunities [17] - The management expressed cautious optimism about potential investment opportunities in the second half of 2025 as market volatility decreases [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that the portfolio remains stable despite reduced investment activity and prepayment trends, with a significant reduction in non-accrual investments [5][6] - The company expects more stabilized profiles for the remainder of 2025, notwithstanding any macroeconomic shocks [6] - Management is optimistic about the potential for increased net investment income in the second quarter due to spread widening in new opportunities [32] Other Important Information - The Board of Directors declared a distribution of $0.12 per share payable in cash on June 14, 2025 [16] - As of March 31, the company had approximately $13 million in cash, with $10.7 million being restricted cash [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: How can the adviser scale or provide benefits to the BDC? - Management indicated that waiving fees is always a consideration and that scaling the private credit platform is an ongoing effort that will help absorb overhead and expenses [20][22] Question: What is the timeline for capital raising? - Management confirmed that they are currently in the process of raising another pool of capital, expected to benefit shareholders in the second half of 2025 [26][27] Question: Why not consider share repurchases given the current stock price? - Management acknowledged that share repurchases are a tool they consider but have no immediate plans in place [30] Question: Should there be an increase in net investment income in the second quarter? - Management suggested that there could be an increase in net investment income due to spread widening, holding other factors constant [32]