"I wouldn't take any meeting off the table"Jerome Powell won't be drawn on whether the Fed is likely to cut rates when it meets in July, as he joins other central bankers at Sintra https://t.co/FbZSTDqvWU https://t.co/OXZDTqTu16 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a base case for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with potential for an earlier cut in July if unemployment rises sharply [6][11][40]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data over the summer months to determine the timing of potential rate cuts, with a consensus forming around the likelihood of cuts resuming in September [5][8]. - Consumer spending has shown significant slowdown, particularly in real services spending, which has implications for economic growth and inflation [10][12][19]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in June, with a possibility of reaching 4.5% if job market conditions worsen, which could prompt earlier rate cuts [11][23][40]. Economic Indicators - Services inflation has remained subdued, with core PCE inflation at 0.179% month-over-month, indicating a cooling inflation environment [9][30]. - Real personal spending has stagnated, with a notable decline in both goods and services spending observed in recent months [10][30]. - The housing sector is experiencing weakness, with new home sales declining by 13.7% month-over-month in May, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [15][18][30]. Labor Market Trends - Initial jobless claims have shown a slight decline, but continuing claims are rising, suggesting a loosening labor market [24][67]. - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.0 in June, indicating growing concerns among consumers regarding the labor market and economic conditions [19][30]. - Average hourly earnings are expected to slow to 0.2% month-over-month, reflecting a weakening labor demand environment [38][39]. Manufacturing and Trade - ISM Manufacturing is expected to remain in contraction, while ISM Services is projected to rebound slightly, indicating modest growth in services activity [60][63]. - The trade balance is anticipated to widen to -$71.7 billion, driven by a drop in exports, which could weigh on GDP growth [57][58].

Uh Ed, we now have a market that uh you know is has kind of completed whatever uh we're going to call what happened in the spring, that severe correction. In fact, one of the fastest rebounds from a 15% plus pullback in the S&P 500 we've seen. What does that tell us.And I guess what is the overall market behavior suggest to you. Yeah, Mike, it certainly has been risk on since the the April lows. We went through a retesting period for a couple of weeks, but then once we got into late April, it's been very mu ...

Huge move this week in rate cut odds 📈3 cuts now up to 45% by end of year (up from 27%)Now 90% chance of anywhere from 2-4 cutsNo change at just 0.6% chance https://t.co/9E6dokXoqJ ...

Let's bring in Max Kentner, HSBC's chief multi-asset strategist to talk about this close. Max, you know, I sit here the S&P 500 at 6142. It's a couple of points from the closing high from February 19th.Uh does it make sense that we're back here. Yeah. Um I think it does.It absolutely does because when we look at the earnings picture, that actually uh does really still look resoundingly good. And when we look particularly at uh forward earnings, when we look at Q2 earnings expectation, it is actually bizarre ...

S&P as we've noted, is less than 1% from an all time high. Joining us now Carol Schleiff, BMO, BMO Private Wealth Chief Market Strategist the. Carol, it's good to see you the way the way that the journal I like summarized what Powell told lawmakers yesterday.It's kind of indicative of I think what we're talking about, he said, yeah, recent economic data would have likely justified some cuts, good cuts, I think because of inflation, not necessarily for because of bad reasons for weakness. However, higher tar ...

Walk on the street. I'm Steve Leeman. The big Fed news of the morning, of course, is Fed Chair Powell in his testimony before Congress pushing back against the possibility of a July rate cut from two of his committee members.More on that in just a second. But first, we have new comments from Cleveland President Beth Hammock adding to the chair's view that rates should remain on hold. She says she does not see economic weakening that would merit rate cuts.The risk to maintaining current policy, she says, app ...

This morning, our next guest does expect a rate cut to come in September. Joining us this morning to discuss is Evercore ISI Vice Chair Krishna Guha. Christian, welcome back. Good to see you again. Great to see you. Doesn't sound like you expect any change today, even on the dots. But what kind of soft guidance do you think he might give about the fall? Look, I think that the Fed's going to stay very much in wait and see mode today. Now, we've had some interesting data come in, right? The top tier data for ...

There's a number of big questions we don't know the answers to. We don't know whether the US is going to get involved. We don't know what kind of escalation we're going to be seeing. We don't know what the Fed is going to do a little bit later on.Is today just a day for sitting on your hands. Do you have a clear sense of direction. I think we're just waiting to the Fed in the short term.And I think this Fed meeting is really interesting in the short term and for day traders, I think there'll be quite a bit ...

The Fed's latest round of projections released Wednesday will include the muchstudied dot plot. It's a chart updated quarterly that shows each Fed officials prediction about the direction of the central bank's benchmark interest rate. Our next guest, however, is in the camp of no cuts from the Fed for the remainder of the year.We got Kenny Pulcari here, a Slatestone Wealth chief market strategist and host of the Yahoo Finance podcast, Trader Talk. So, each one of those little dots represents a member of the ...