Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June showed a month-over-month change of 0.0%, which was lower than the expected +0.2% and down from the revised +0.3% of the previous month [2][3] - Year-over-year, the headline PPI increased by +2.3%, which is 30 basis points below expectations and the lowest since +2.1% reported in September of the previous year [4] - Core PPI year-over-year reached +2.6%, slightly below estimates and down 40 basis points from the May figure of +3.0% [4] Financial Sector Performance - Bank of America reported earnings of 89 cents per share, beating expectations by 3 cents, although revenues missed estimates by 0.5% [7] - Goldman Sachs delivered a strong Q2 earnings report with earnings of $10.91 per share, surpassing expectations by +15.7% and revenues of $14.58 billion, exceeding estimates by +8% [8] - Morgan Stanley reported earnings of $2.13 per share and revenues of $16.79 billion, outperforming consensus estimates by +10.36% and +5.5% respectively [9] Company-Specific Highlights - Johnson & Johnson's Q2 earnings beat expectations with earnings of $2.77 per share, exceeding projections of $2.66, and revenues of $23.7 billion, which were higher than the expected $22.80 billion [10]

Inflation Trends - Headline CPI increased by 03% as expected, following a 01% increase [1] - Headline CPI increase of 03% is the second highest this year, with January being the highest at 05% [1] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 02%, lower than the expected 03% [2] - Core CPI increase of 02% matches the increase in April, with January being the highest at 04% [2]

Market Performance - The small-cap Russell 2000 has outperformed major indexes recently, leading for the 4th session in the last 5, with a gain of +0.48% [1] - The Dow increased by +192 points (+0.43%), the S&P 500 rose by +17 points (+0.27%), and the Nasdaq was up by +19 points (+0.09%) [1] - Over the past month, the Russell 2000 has gained +5%, while other major indexes have hovered around +4% [2] Company Earnings - Levi Strauss & Co. reported fiscal Q2 earnings of 22 cents per share, exceeding the estimated 14 cents, with revenues of $1.4 billion surpassing the projected $1.37 billion [4] - The gross margins for Levi Strauss hit a record +62.6% for the quarter, with Americas' comps up +5%, net revenues in Europe up +14%, and Asia flat [4] - Direct-to-Consumer sales increased by +11% in the quarter, contributing to a +7% jump in stock price following the earnings report [4] Economic Outlook - No significant economic reports or earnings reports are expected on the following Friday, with attention turning to the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and Q2 earnings from major banks [5] - Major banks are anticipated to perform well, with assets under management at record highs and strong investment banking performance [6] - The CPI Inflation Rate was reported at a 12-month low of +2.3%, with core inflation at +2.8%, close to the Fed's optimal target of +2.0% [6]

Core Insights - In June 2025, Qingdao's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% year-on-year, driven by a 1.1% rise in food prices and a 0.2% increase in non-food prices [1][3] Group 1: Price Changes - Food and tobacco prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.30 percentage points to the CPI increase [3] - Among the eight categories, prices for other goods and services, education, culture and entertainment, clothing, and living goods and services increased by 10.7%, 1.6%, 0.8%, and 0.1% respectively [3] - Conversely, healthcare, housing, and transportation and communication prices decreased by 0.2%, 0.3%, and 3.1% respectively [3] Group 2: Food Price Details - Grain prices increased by 0.4% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, with flour prices up by 2.6% year-on-year [5] - Fresh vegetable prices rose by 3.1% year-on-year, with significant increases in lotus root and spinach prices, which rose by 33.7% and 28.8% respectively [5] - Pork prices decreased by 12.7% year-on-year, while water product prices increased by 8.5% year-on-year [5] Group 3: Industrial and Service Prices - Industrial consumer prices fell by 0.6% year-on-year, with clothing prices up by 0.8% year-on-year but down by 0.2% month-on-month [8] - Transportation tool prices decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with fuel car prices down by 4.4% year-on-year [8] - Service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with travel-related service prices showing mixed trends [10]

Inflation & Interest Rates - PPI 显示通胀目前受到控制 [1] - 生产者价格指数（PPI）低于预期，总体和核心指数均上涨 01% [2] - 市场更有信心预计今年将有两次降息，9 月和 12 月降息的可能性约为 75% [5] - 总统表示，如果降低利率 1 个百分点，每年将节省约 3000 亿美元 [6][7] - 欧洲已经降息 10 次，而美国尚未降息 [8] Tariff Impact - 关税的影响可能被出口商、批发商和零售商的利润吸收，只有一小部分转嫁给消费者 [4] - 关税可能被其他商品因经济疲软或其他因素（如导致机票价格下降的因素）而导致的价格下降所抵消 [4] - Evercore ISI 认为，虽然预计关税最终会导致更高的通胀，但持续疲软的通胀数据可能表明关税传递弱于预期，从而略微降低通胀的上行风险 [3] Fed Policy - 市场普遍认为，美联储将等待几次会议，以确保关税问题得到妥善解决后再降息 [6] - 如果美联储因不确定关税的影响而不降息，那么取消关税或美联储降息将是更好的选择，从财政角度来看 [8] - 市场已对降息进行定价，但如果美联储在市场认为合适之前降息，可能会导致长期利率走高 [10] Market Analysis - 2 年期和 10 年期国债收益率之间的息差相对陡峭，表明长期市场并不欢迎降息 [10] - 10 年期国债收益率似乎在 430-450 之间波动 [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo economists anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. for April may accelerate, influenced by tariffs leading to higher inflation expectations [1] Economic Indicators - After an unexpected decline of 0.1% in March, the April CPI is projected to increase by 0.2% [1] - This increase would bring the annual CPI rate down to a four-year low of 2.3% [1] - The core CPI annual rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.8% [1] Tariff Impact - Economists indicate that the reality of tariffs will lead to higher import costs, which will eventually affect consumer prices [1]