Inflation and Economic Growth - The data suggests that inflation is not a major concern, with the bigger problem being a lack of real growth [2] - Real GDP growth in the first half of the year is slightly less than 1% annualized, and job creation is up 60 basis points annualized [3] - Current inflation is running at 2.5% to 3% [3] Federal Reserve (Fed) Policy - A Fed rate cut is anticipated, with the expectation that the Fed will choose to ease next month [3] - The market has been narrow in this bull market because the Fed has been tightening [7] - If the Fed cuts the funds rate, long-term bond yields and mortgage rates could decrease, the dollar could weaken, and the money supply could increase, all of which are positive for stocks and the economy [9] - A Fed rate cut could be a game-changer, potentially initiating a new bull market [10] Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Small caps and midcaps offer a very attractive relative PE discount, trading at more than 30% discounts to their average 20-year relative PE with the S&P 500 [12][13] - Historically, 12 months after the Fed starts cutting interest rates, large caps gain less than 4%, while small caps are up about 3%, indicating significant room for small caps to move [13] - If the Fed eases, leadership may broaden out to small caps, international value plays [11]

Market Analysis and Investment Strategy - Historically, value stocks outperformed growth stocks, and small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks until the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The S&P 500 is no longer a broad-based market index, with the top 10 stocks accounting for 40% of the weight and the top 250 stocks accounting for 90% [4] - There are signs of euphoria in the market, with the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio higher than it has been 98% of the time, approaching tech bubble peak [4][5] - Younger investors are following momentum strategies, piling into what's working and driving it higher [6] - Despite concerns about overvaluation, the market can continue to rally even after warnings of irrational exuberance [7] Tariff Impact - Smaller companies generate most of their revenues within the United States but are still exposed to tariffs through reliance on foreign manufacturers [9] - Larger companies may be better equipped to handle tariffs by absorbing costs or passing them on through price adjustments [10] Stock Recommendation - Grant Wealth Management likes Verizon, a large-cap value stock that pays a generous dividend and has been increasing it every year for the past 18 years [11][12] - Verizon has 40 times the revenue of Palantir and sells for nine times earnings, while Palantir sells for 285 times earnings [14] - It makes sense to pay for growth, but there is a point where it no longer makes sense, making Verizon a more attractive option [13][14]