Markets may be reacting to the data but maybe to the idea of a new Fed board on the way with an 88% that is 89% higher than it was before. Probability of a first cut in September 48% for a second cut in October. So kind of toying with maybe it happens in October more sure of the with the 85% it happens in December.The result of the data was to boost the CNBC Moody's rapid update tracking forecast for the third quarter of 3.3%. pretty healthy, showing the economy and inflation accelerating amid curiously cal ...

Back-to-School Season Importance - Back-to-school season is second only to the holiday season in importance for retailers [1] - Performance during the back-to-school season is highly correlated with performance during the holiday season [3] Competitive Landscape - Retailers are engaging in promotional activities to capture consumer spending early [1][2] - Competition extends beyond apparel to encompass overall consumer spending [3] Investment Strategy - Focus on retailers like Urban Outfitters, Hollister (Abercrombie), and Tapestry (Coach) that demonstrate strong consumer demand and willingness to pay full price [4] - Capitalize on momentum from back-to-school to holiday, favoring stocks of companies with positive trends [5] - Avoid investing in struggling companies simply because they appear cheap [5][6]

Hello and welcome to Ask for a Trend. I'm Josh Lipton. For the next half hour, we are breaking down the trends of today that'll move stocks tomorrow.There's a lot to keep track of, so we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve. Here's some of the trends we're going to be diving into. It was a sliding start for stocks at the beginning of the trading week.Investors seem to have maybe lost their zest after Jackson Hole and as they parse retail data and await Nvidia earnings at the end of ...

Recession Risks - Moody's Analytics认为美国经济衰退的风险非常高，就业是关键 [1] - 如果三个月移动平均失业率上升超过 0.5 个百分点，历史上预示着经济衰退 [3] - 由于移民政策等因素，失业率可能无法完全反映经济疲软 [4] - 负面的就业数据将是经济衰退的明确信号，历史上，当就业数据转为负值时，通常是经济衰退开始的月份 [2][6] - 要确认经济衰退，需要看到一系列持续的经济活动下降，而不仅仅是一两个月的负面数据 [6][7] Labor Market Dynamics - 稳定失业率所需的每月新增就业人数约为 2550 人 [5] - 由于数据测量问题等因素，潜在的就业增长可能接近该水平 [5] - 移民对劳动力增长至关重要，但更严格的移民政策导致外国出生的劳动力增长下降，甚至开始下降 [8][9][10] - 由于外国出生劳动力减少，整体劳动力规模低于年初水平，从而压低了失业率 [10][11] - 劳动力增长放缓会降低经济的潜在增长率，并可能导致通胀压力 [11][12] Consumer Spending - 今年总体实际消费支出停滞不前，部分原因可能是移民政策的影响 [12][13]

Look at European equity market futures markets. They don't look all that inspiring. But we've had so much news and we're set to get a little data this week.It doesn't feel necessarily necessarily as if the market action is living up to all of the inputs. What are you making of the stock market performance right now. Good morning, John.Well, it's precisely because of all those scheduled catalysts that people are reluctant to take too big bets to add too much risk at the moment. I think ultimately I expect th ...

Group 1 - The stock market is currently at all-time highs, but there are mixed signals from the macroeconomy, particularly regarding consumer spending [1] Group 2 - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in technology companies and has been a contributor to Seeking Alpha since 2017, providing insights into industry trends [2]

Consumer Behavior & Market Trends - Chipotle experienced a decline in instore traffic for two consecutive quarters [1] - Cameron Mitchell Restaurants observed a potential shift towards more cautious consumer spending based on sales data [1] - The restaurant industry is facing challenges in maintaining profitability [5][6] - Consumers are starting to spend slightly less, potentially ordering fewer desserts or appetizers [9] - There's cautious optimism with recent same-store sales increases [3][9] Cost & Pricing Pressures - Cameron Mitchell Restaurants is approaching the limit of price increases it can implement in the market [3] - Rising meat prices are significantly impacting the company's profit and loss (P&L), potentially forcing price adjustments in the second half of the year [4] - Increased costs across labor, food, construction materials, and interest rates are impacting profitability [6] - Labor costs are up, but turnover is at an all-time low [7][8] Restaurant Industry Challenges - Many restaurant closures are occurring, particularly affecting independent restaurants with fewer resources [6][7] - Inflation and persistently high prices are making the restaurant business tougher [7]

Market Volatility & Uncertainty - The market faces continued uncertainty stemming from administration policies, tariffs, and geopolitical factors [2][3] - Despite volatility, the market hit a new high in June, and historically, markets tend to be positive 12 months after hitting a new high [3][4] - The best and worst trading days of the year occurred within four days of each other, making market timing extremely difficult [6] Investment Strategy - Advises clients to review their strategic asset allocation to meet long-term goals and tolerate volatility [5] - Recommends against trying to time the market, emphasizing the importance of reviewing investments and allocations with advisors [6] Economic Outlook - The consumer remains strong and has absorbed tariffs without significant pause, continuing to spend [8][10] - Economic data is strong, and it's important to differentiate between stock market volatility and the overall economy [8] - Inflation data shows prices of consumer goods are ticking up, with August suggested as a potential peak [9]

Trade Deal & Tariffs - A trade deal with Vietnam was announced, including 20% tariffs on Vietnamese goods entering the US market, which could impact importers like retailers [2] - No tariffs are imposed on US goods entering the Vietnamese market [2] - The market views the deal as a step in the right direction, but the 20% tariff rate is higher than desired [3][4] - The market anticipates further trade deals before the July 9th deadline [3] - A 20% tariff across the board with other countries could cause concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending [5][6] - The 20% tariff is better than the originally announced 46% on Vietnam and 95% on Cambodia [6] - Trans-shipping detail with 40% tariffs is a direct hit to China [7] Inflation & Consumer Impact - Tariffs will bring in revenue but may also raise prices [7] - There hasn't been a great deal of tariff pass-through to consumers so far [8] - If tariff rates are higher than 10-15%, the market will pause to see how well consumers hold up [9] Market Reaction - Stocks moved up in the morning following the trade deal announcement, but the reaction wasn't significant [2] - The market wants to see progress on trade deals [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve, indicating potential rate cuts in September due to weak consumer spending and subdued core PCE inflation [1][8]. Core Insights - Consumer spending has shown signs of persistent weakness, particularly in services, with a nominal increase of only 0.1% MoM and flat real terms, leading to an overall decline in personal spending [5][7]. - Core PCE inflation increased by 0.179% MoM, slightly above expectations, but still subdued enough to support the case for rate cuts [4][8]. - The report highlights a significant decline in travel-related spending, particularly in air travel and hotel accommodations, which have seen declines every month this year [7][8]. Summary by Sections Consumer Spending - Personal spending fell by 0.1% MoM in nominal terms and 0.3% in real terms, with goods spending declining by 0.8% MoM [5]. - Services spending showed unexpected weakness, with a nominal increase of only 0.1% MoM and flat in real terms, indicating a broader trend of reduced consumer demand [5][7]. Inflation Metrics - Core PCE inflation was reported at 0.179% MoM, slightly stronger than consensus but still indicative of a soft inflation environment [4][8]. - The report suggests that weak consumer demand limits the ability of firms to pass through tariff price increases, reducing the risk of broad-based inflation [8]. Employment Implications - The report indicates that weaker consumer demand could lead to softer hiring, raising downside risks to the Federal Reserve's employment mandate [8].