Our next guest is Republican House member uh who opposed President Trump's big bill as of late yesterday, but overnight he voted to move forward with the bill. Joining us right now is Congressman Ralph Norman, Republican of South Carolina. You were outspoken uh on the other side of this bill, sir.And here we are this morning. What has changed. Well, we we had a lot of problems with uh the Senate changing our bill up, mainly adding to the deficit to the tune of with interest right at 100 $1.2% trillion.We we ...

Market & Economic Outlook - The bond market has largely priced in the current fiscal situation, suggesting that a massive bond bearish environment may be overstated [1] - The US is perceived to be moving towards fiscal consolidation, despite consensus views to the contrary [1] - The market is pushing for rate cuts, influenced by factors such as the labor market and potentially President Trump [3] - Dollar decline tends to be stimulative for the economy [3] Fiscal Policy & Deficit - The recent bill is expected to slightly increase the deficit over the next 10 years, but the impact may be offset by revenue from tariffs [1] - Extending the 2017 tax cut is estimated to cost $4.5 trillion and is not considered particularly stimulative [1] - Post-pandemic US fiscal spending was unprecedented, matching levels during World War II and exceeding other major economies by four times [1] Monetary Policy - The Fed potentially has 450 basis points worth of cuts to enact [4] - The market may respond more to anticipated future actions (the "shadow chair") than to the current Fed chair's actions [5] US vs UK - The US differs from the UK due to a wider international appetite for US bonds, contingent on trade negotiations [1]

Uh what can you tell us. What have we learned so far. Hey Kelly.Well, things are not looking great at this exact moment. So basically what house uh the House is doing right now is they are doing a vote. This is a three vote series that will ultimately tee up the the the process that will need be needed to then actually pass the Trump mega bill.So it's the vote before the vote. And what we're seeing right now is that there is a delay on the House floor at this point. 16 Republicans have not yet registered to ...

Legislation & Policy - The Senate passed a bill with a 51-50 vote, using budget reconciliation to bypass the 60-vote threshold [1] - Budget reconciliation requires the bill not to increase the deficit outside a 10-year window [1] - The bill extends tax cuts from 2017, which previously expired to comply with the 10-year window [2] - Concerns arise as the bill cuts taxes more than it cuts spending, potentially violating budget reconciliation rules [2] Financial Implications & Accounting - The bill's math relies on a 2025 baseline, when 2017 tax cuts are still in effect [3] - Republicans claim the bill will reduce the deficit by $57 billion over 10 years through tax cuts and Medicaid reforms [3] - Critics argue that the bill uses "fake math and accounting gimmicks" to conceal its true cost [4]

Important point — Dogecoin Deficit: 0 forever.. never tethered.REDWRITER (@The_REDWRITER):America's deficit increase is bad for the dollar, and by extension, beneficial for Dogecoin.Dogecoin has no debt. Dogecoin's minting (printing) is fixed and not infinite. Dogecoin isn't backed by a single state or entity. It belongs to everyone and anyone. ...

From @WSJopinion: There is much in the GOP bill that deserves criticism, but the $3.3 trillion deficit critique is phony—like Beltway accounting https://t.co/PXM0sBKaMm ...

International Markets - US stocks still have a home bias, but international markets offer catalysts beyond just a weaker dollar [1] - Europe benefits from lower rates and fiscal stimulus, China from AI, and Japan from corporate reform [2] - Emerging markets, including Korea, Taiwan, and Latin America, benefit from the resurgence in hardware within tech and the reorganization of global trade [2][3] - International opportunities are not all dependent on each other, providing diversification [3] US Market & Fiscal Policy - The market has largely priced in the "big beautiful bill," with short-term positive impacts on equity markets due to growth boosts [4][5] - The long-term impact of the bill includes a potentially ever-expanding deficit, estimated to be in the trillions, which could create a floor on yields [5][6] - The market seems to have gotten comfortable with tariffs around 14% or 15%, after a previous range of 2% to 25% [8] Market Resilience & Outlook - The market has shown resilience to geopolitical risks, the reconciliation bill, and recession risks [9][10] - The path of least resistance for the market is higher, given its resilience to various downside risks [10] - The market could become more rangebound in the second half of the year due to higher valuations [12][13] - Diversified portfolios are up 6% to 7% in the first half of the year [14] Bond Market & Yields - Resistance has been met around 45% on the 10-year Treasury yield [15] - Yields could drift lower throughout the year, potentially providing opportunities for investors [16] - Even if yields remain stable, the income cushion will generate a decent return further out on the curve [16]

RT Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)🇺🇸 SEN. RAND PAUL: CONSERVATIVE? NOT WITH A $5T DEBT CEILING"We have to judge the effects of the big, not-so-beautiful bill by looking at what happens to the debt next year.Supporters of the bill admit it adds $270 billion to the debt next year.That's the only thing we know for certain.We don't know what happens in year 3, 4, 5, 6... but we know next year, this bill will grow the deficit by $270 billion.In addition, the bill increases the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.What does t ...

Fiscal Policy & Economic Impact - The Trump administration's spending bill is projected to increase the US deficit by $33 trillion [1] - White House officials claim the bill will protect and strengthen Medicaid for the needy, pregnant women, children, and sick Americans [2] - The administration projects 3% growth from the bill, adding $4 trillion to revenue, positioning it as a deficit reducer [2] - Economists criticize the GOP for using "accounting creative writing" to mask the $4 trillion cost of the tax bill [3] - The White House Council of Economic Advisers believes the bill will reduce the national debt, a claim considered absurd by some economists [8] Market & Investor Sentiment - Despite concerns about US debt, the stock market initially reacted positively to the bill [10] - The bond market is less enthusiastic than the stock market, and the dollar has performed poorly against other currencies [11] - Some believe the stock market's optimism is fueled by hopes that AI will change the world [11] Trade & Tariffs - Negotiations are slowing because President Trump threatens to impose more tariffs even after a deal [12] - No one has permission to make actual deals for the United States except for the president [13] - Imposing new tariffs upsets the apple cart and restarts negotiations from scratch [14] - The president could tear up trade agreements and demand new ones, undermining commitment [15] Immigration & Labor - The Trump administration is rethinking deportation policies for migrants working in industries like hospitality and agriculture [17] - The administration is considering a temporary pass for farm workers where farmers can have some control [18] - Uncertainty around immigration policies makes it difficult for farmers and hospitality companies to plan, as workers may not show up due to fear of ICE [22]

It is day 162 of the second Trump administration and tonight the focus is on the Senate floor. You are looking at it live right now. All day long, senators have been voting on amendments to Donald Trump's gargantuan tax and spending bill.Republicans are rushing to get the bill to Trump's desk in time for his deadline on Friday. Donald Trump wants you to focus on his campaign promises that are in the bill, like extending the tax cuts from his first term, billions of dollars for border security, and eliminati ...