Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Uncertainty - The market perceives the Federal Reserve (Fed) as divided and cautious due to uncertainties surrounding inflation, labor market, government shutdown, and tariffs [1][2] - The Fed's debate needs resolution, which is a key focus for markets [3] - The Fed faces challenges in justifying policy moves without reliable economic data, especially given its data-dependent stance [5][6] - The Fed is considering a pause in policy adjustments due to data limitations caused by events like government shutdowns [5][6] - The Fed is aware of the debate surrounding the concentration of GDP growth in the AI sector but considers overall growth from consumers [12][13] - The Fed acknowledges the AI sector's contribution to GDP growth but questions its sustainability, which is unlikely to drive major decisions at this stage [14] Data & Economic Indicators - The Fed can use alternative data sources like state data and private sector indices to compensate for missing official economic reports [5][9] - Bank of America research indicates credit card spending is up over 2% for the week ending October 4th [8] - Earnings reports from companies like Delta Airlines and PepsiCo can provide insights into inflation and consumer spending [9] - Private sector economic reports may also be affected by the lack of incoming government data [9] - Atlanta Fed GDPNow tool estimates GDP growth at 38% [11]

Today we were supposed to get one of the most important pieces of economic data. That would be the monthly employment report from the labor department. But because of the government shutdown, no official government economic data is getting out into the market.And yet the market seems just fine with this absence of updated information about unemployment and job creation last month. Why is that. Well, for one thing, investors already had a pretty good sense that we had a softening labor market.We have seen a ...

Economic Data Release - US September non-farm payroll data release was delayed due to the US government shutdown [1] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended all operations and economic data releases during the government shutdown [1]

Government Shutdown Impact - A vote on the stop-gap measure was expected today but will now likely occur on Friday due to the Jewish holiday [1][2] - The delay means job numbers will not be available on Friday morning [2] - September job numbers are set and will be released once the government reopens [3] - A prolonged shutdown will impact the collection of data on jobs, CPI (Consumer Price Index), and PPI (Producer Price Index) [3] - Inaccurate data due to the shutdown will affect the Fed, economists, and those analyzing the economy [3]

Labor Market Analysis - Government payroll data remains vital for understanding the jobs market and the economy, despite ADP's volatility [1] - ADP data aligns well with the Bureau of Labor Statistics private sector data over a year, with a year-to-date difference of only 9,000 jobs per month in August [2] - Alternative data may not accurately reflect changes if jobs are at an inflection point [3] - Jobless claims provide data on firings, but not hiring [3] Key Indicators - Continuing claims plus the Conference Board's employment data on jobs hard to get serve as a good proxy for the unemployment rate [4] - Hiring intentions in the small business NFIB survey are considered the best single indicator of payrolls for the month ahead, showing signs of stability after weakening earlier in the summer [5] Government Sector Impact - Trump administration layoffs of federal workers are expected to impact job data this month and next, with no private sector data replacement [6] - ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs for September, partly due to revisions [6] - Revisions suggest a softer job market than previously believed [6]

Government Shutdown & Political Standoff - The US government shut down due to a political standoff between Democrats and Republicans, with the Senate failing to pass a temporary funding extension [1] - Democrats blocked a Republican plan due to the exclusion of critical healthcare provisions related to the Affordable Care Act, while Republicans, including President Trump, refused concessions [2] - A previous government shutdown in 2018-2019 lasted for five weeks, suggesting the current one could also be prolonged [6] - The resolution will require concessions from both Democrats and Republicans, particularly regarding healthcare subsidies and potential cuts to Medicare and Medicaid [7] - Early attempts by Democrats to meet with President Trump were initially rebuffed, leading to the shutdown [8] - The House speaker's decision to send the body home prevented a vote on any stopgap measure passed or failed by the Senate [8] Economic Impact & Market Implications - The shutdown will delay the release of key economic data, such as jobs numbers, inflation reports, and GDP figures [2] - The furlough of 750,000 government workers will impact the preparation of these economic reports [3][9] - Investors globally rely on US economic data to gauge the direction of US interest rates, and the absence of this data will leave the Federal Reserve with less guidance, causing market uncertainty [3][4] - US government operations will largely continue, including counselor services, visa services, counterterrorism assistance, and assistance programs across Africa and the Middle East, though with some disruptions [5]

Government Shutdown Impact - U S government shutdown due to lawmakers failing to pass a new spending bill by the September 30th deadline [1] - Federal agencies suspend nonessential activities impacting the protection of life and property [2] - Federal workers in affected categories face halted pay [2] - Key economic data reports may be delayed creating uncertainty for financial markets [3] Operational Status - Federal courts and the Federal Reserve will remain open [2] - U S Post Office and Amtrak will continue to operate as they don't rely on the congressional spending bill [2] - Most of the IRS will shut down [3] - Other regulatory agencies will partially close along with some museums and most national parks [3] Political Landscape - Congressional leaders are negotiating to reach a bipartisan agreement [4] - Democrats are pushing for the extension of Obamacare subsidies while Republicans oppose it [4]

Labor Market & Economic Data - The August jobs report showed employers hired only 22,000 people, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [1] - A potential government shutdown could lead to a news and data blackout, impacting the release of key economic reports like the jobs report and the consumer price index [2] - The employment report is considered the single most important piece of economic information, influencing markets, stock trades, and Federal Reserve policy [4] - Ambiguous economic data creates uncertainty, making each new data point vital for investment and employment decisions [5] Political & Policy Impacts - Concerns are raised about the potential for political interference with economic data, particularly if it contradicts the administration's narrative [6][7] - Tariffs and mass deportations are highlighted as potentially inflationary policies, with scrutiny on whether they are receiving adequate criticism [9] - The impact of potential tariffs on foreign-made films is questioned, especially for an industry still recovering from the pandemic [12] - Tariffs are viewed as a tool for projecting strength rather than sound economic policy, potentially leading to retaliatory actions [14][15] Economic Sentiment & Midterm Elections - Economic anxiety is rising due to tariffs, labor market conditions, and interest rates, potentially impacting the upcoming midterm elections [16] - Affordability is a key concern for voters, potentially influencing their decisions regardless of political gerrymandering [17] - The resilience of the American economy is questioned in the face of disruptive policies, with uncertainty about the long-term effects [19] Legal & Financial Settlements - YouTube agreed to pay almost $25 million to settle a lawsuit related to the suspension of Trump's account, raising concerns about potential influence and future demands [20] - Settlements with the president are characterized as a form of "renting" rather than "buying," suggesting the possibility of further demands [21][22] GDP & Economic Claims - The White House reported a GDP growth of 38% in the most recent quarter [23] - A claim by the Commerce Secretary that Biden's economy never reached 3% GDP growth was fact-checked and found to be false [24]

Core Points - The Labor Department is preparing for a potential halt in economic data releases due to a possible partial government shutdown, which could significantly impact economic insights ahead of the Federal Reserve's October meeting [1][10] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) plans to suspend all operations, which includes halting the release of critical economic reports [2][4] - The upcoming release of the monthly nonfarm payrolls report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is particularly crucial, as they will provide key information on job growth and inflation before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [5][7] Group 1 - The Labor Department's contingency plan indicates that economic data scheduled for release during a government shutdown will not be published, affecting various reports related to import/export prices and wages [4][10] - The BLS typically publishes around a dozen reports each month, and the shutdown would disrupt all active data collection activities for BLS surveys, potentially delaying future releases [4][10] - The government shutdown is set to occur if Congress does not approve a funding extension, with a deadline of 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday [8] Group 2 - The BLS's website will be inactive during the shutdown, meaning no updates or technical fixes will be available, further complicating access to economic data [11] - The revision of 911,000 jobs, the largest on record, has drawn criticism from the White House, which is calling for a Federal Reserve rate cut in response to the economic situation [2]

Let's continue that conversation this morning with Dan Greenhouse, chief strategist, managing director at Solless Alternative Asset Management, who joins us here at Post9. Happy Friday, DG. Good to see you.So, this uh this week, has it been like a a healthy breather going into a ramp in the year end or is the rally as broad as you would have liked. >> No, the rally is not as broad as I would have liked. It's there's a lot of lowquality and uh bitcoin related names that that have led the way, but but also ho ...