Wells Fargo lowers its full-year guidance for net interest income, after another quarter of tepid growth amid the ongoing trade war https://t.co/86eFv0x2pN ...

Market Trends & Outlook - US lenders are forecasted to show increases in trading revenue, which is a key focus this earnings season [1] - Net interest income is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, offsetting seasonal declines in trading [2] - The environment has improved significantly since April, with recession odds for 2025 dropping from 65-70% to around 20%, and expectations shifting from close to four rate cuts to two [4] - Banks' guidance is expected to be stable or with a bias to the upside, as they were conservative in their adjustments a few months ago due to volatility [5] Investment Banking Performance - Investment banking results are expected to underperform, marking the 14th consecutive quarter where they contribute less than a quarter of industry revenues [7] - A typical global investment banking revenue pool consists of approximately 50% FICC (Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities), 25% equities trading, and 25% banking fees [8] - There is potential for improvement in equity fees and equity underwriting, especially with global equities indices hitting record highs [10] - While equity fees may improve, it will be tough to hit the high watermark seen a couple of years ago [10] Strategic Focus - Investors are focusing on the profitability of investment banking, as it is a capital-light business, rather than just revenue [9]

I was just referring to the VIX a short time ago with our guest. Um during this quarter, the VIX spiked up to above 50. Now it's kind of settled down to 171 18.Are there any banks that are going to benefit specifically from some of that volatility earlier in the quarter like we saw last quarter where banks said they saw higher trading volume and they kind of benefited from the idea that investors weren't quite sure what to do. Sure. And thanks again for having me.We've noticed um and looking forward to this ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan is set to report its Q2 2025 earnings on July 15, with expectations of modest performance compared to previous quarters, influenced by various market factors and economic conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - JPMorgan's Q1 performance was strong, driven by investment banking and trading, alongside growth in credit card and wholesale loans [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 revenues is $43.47 billion, indicating a 3.4% year-over-year decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has been revised slightly upward to $4.49, reflecting a 2.1% increase from the prior year [3]. Estimate Revision Trend - The earnings estimates for the current quarter and the next have seen minor upward revisions, with current estimates at $4.49 for Q2 2025 and $4.47 for Q3 2025 [5]. - The average earnings surprise over the last four quarters has been 10.70%, with the company consistently outperforming estimates [5][7]. Factors Influencing Q2 Performance - Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to rise by 3% year-over-year, supported by stable funding costs [8]. - Investment Banking (IB) fees are projected to decline by 11.4% year-over-year, with a consensus estimate of $2.18 billion [12]. - Markets revenues are anticipated to grow in the mid-to-high single digits, with estimates for equity markets revenues at $3.15 billion and fixed-income markets revenues at $5.25 billion [14]. Asset Quality and Expenses - Non-performing loans (NPLs) are expected to increase by 17.3% year-over-year, with estimates at $9.14 billion [18]. - Non-interest expenses are projected to remain stable at $23.7 billion, influenced by expansion efforts and technology investments [16][17]. Market Position and Valuation - JPMorgan shares have outperformed the S&P 500 but lagged behind peers like Citigroup and Bank of America [21]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of 14.78X, which is below the industry average of 14.9X [22]. - The acquisition of First Republic Bank in 2023 is expected to bolster financials and support long-term growth [26]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on expanding its footprint and capitalizing on cross-selling opportunities, despite facing challenges in fee income growth due to market volatility [28]. - Investors are advised to monitor management's comments on NII and IB business prospects during the upcoming earnings call [29].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup Inc. shares reached a new 52-week high of $88.82, closing at $87.60, with a 35.3% increase over the past year, compared to the industry's 41.2% growth [1][9] Financial Performance - Citigroup passed the Federal Reserve's 2025 stress test, indicating strong capital to absorb significant losses [4] - The company plans to increase its quarterly dividend by 7% to 60 cents per share starting in Q3 2025, pending board approval [5] - Citigroup's current dividend yield is 2.56%, higher than Wells Fargo's 1.94% and Bank of America's 2.14% [6] Capital Management - Citigroup has a $20 billion stock repurchase program, with $1.75 billion in shares bought back in Q1 2025 and a similar target for Q2 [7] - As of March 31, 2025, Citigroup's cash and investments totaled $761 billion, with total debt at $317.5 billion, indicating a strong liquidity position [8] Business Restructuring - The company is simplifying its governance structure, reducing management layers from 13 to eight, and has announced plans to eliminate 20,000 jobs over two years, saving $2-2.5 billion annually by 2026 [10][11] - Citigroup is exiting consumer banking operations in 14 markets, having successfully exited in nine countries, which is expected to free up capital for higher-return segments [12][16] Revenue Growth - Citigroup's net interest income (NII) has a CAGR of 8.4% from 2020 to 2024, with expectations of a 2-3% increase in 2025 [16][17] - The company is expanding its presence in private credit through partnerships, including a $25 billion direct lending initiative with Apollo Global Management [18][19] Estimates and Valuation - Consensus estimates suggest a 3.5% and 3.2% increase in sales for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings expected to rise by 23.2% and 27.6% [20] - Citigroup's current P/E ratio is 10.46x, lower than the industry average of 15.06x, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [22][25] Strategic Outlook - Citigroup's strong capital levels, operational efficiency improvements, and strategic exits position it for long-term growth, despite rising expenses and a complex overhaul plan [26][27]

Core Insights - JPMorgan's shares reached an all-time high of $289.41, driven by expectations of earlier interest rate cuts due to positive economic data [1] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts contrasts with market confidence in at least two cuts this year, which may negatively impact JPMorgan's net interest income (NII) [2] - JPMorgan's CFO indicated potential NII growth of $1 billion above previous guidance for 2025, although the current outlook remains unchanged at $94.5 billion [3] Branch Expansion and Acquisitions - JPMorgan operates 4,975 branches, the most of any U.S. bank, and is expanding its presence with new Financial Centers, aiming to double by 2026 [5] - The bank is also enhancing its digital services with remote offices and plans to add 500 branches by 2027 to improve customer relationships and cross-selling opportunities [6] - Strategic acquisitions, including a larger stake in Brazil's C6 Bank and the purchase of First Republic Bank, are diversifying revenues and enhancing digital offerings [8] Capital Markets Performance - JPMorgan's capital markets business saw a significant rebound, with investment banking fees increasing by 37% year-over-year last year, although they declined by 5% in 2023 [9][10] - The bank's markets revenues are expected to grow in the mid-to-high single-digits range due to increased market volatility and client activity [11] - Long-term prospects for the investment banking business remain strong, supported by a solid deal pipeline once economic uncertainty decreases [12] Financial Health and Shareholder Returns - As of March 31, 2025, JPMorgan had total debt of $471.9 billion and cash and deposits of $425.9 billion, maintaining strong liquidity [13] - The company announced a 12% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.40 per share, following previous hikes, and has a $30 billion share repurchase program [14][17] - JPMorgan's stock has outperformed the S&P 500, rising 20.4% this year compared to a 3.7% increase for the index [20] Asset Quality and Earnings Outlook - JPMorgan's asset quality has deteriorated, with provisions increasing significantly in recent years due to macroeconomic challenges [18] - The company expects card net charge-off rates to be around 3.6% this year, with projections for a rise in 2026 [19] - Earnings estimates for 2025 suggest a 6.1% decline year-over-year, while 2026 estimates indicate a 5.3% growth [26][30] Valuation and Market Position - JPMorgan's stock is trading at a forward P/E of 15.26X, above the industry average of 14.55X, indicating a premium valuation [23][25] - Despite the premium, upward earnings revisions and JPMorgan's leadership position in the industry support a cautious buy recommendation for long-term investors [31]

Core Insights - Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is significantly impacted by mortgage rates, which have recently declined, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.81% as of June 18, 2025, down from 6.87% a year ago [1] Group 1: Mortgage Rates and Demand - Lower mortgage rates are expected to improve housing affordability challenges, leading to increased loan demand [2] - The decline in mortgage rates is anticipated to enhance purchase originations and refinancing activities, which will likely improve NLY's book value as spreads in the Agency market tighten [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - Annaly's net interest income (NII) rose to $219.9 million in Q1 2025, a significant recovery from a negative NII of $6.45 million in the same quarter the previous year, aided by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts of 100 basis points in 2024 [4] - The upward trend in NII is expected to ease earnings pressure for Annaly, thereby supporting the company's overall performance [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - AGNC Investment's NII also reflects the influence of mortgage rates, with a reported NII of $159 million compared to a negative NII of $30 million in the prior-year quarter, indicating a potential reduction in operational challenges [5] - Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) experienced a 27.2% year-over-year decline in NII to $75.4 million in Q1 2025, but is expected to benefit from lower mortgage rates, which may ease earnings pressure [6] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - NLY shares have increased by 9.6% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 4.5% [7] - Annaly's forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio stands at 0.98X, slightly above the industry average of 0.96X [10] Group 5: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NLY's 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year increase of 6.3%, with a further growth expectation of 1.4% for 2026, reflecting upward revisions in estimates over the past 60 days [12]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Savings and Loan industry is experiencing benefits from an improving lending environment due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to stable funding costs and supporting net interest income (NII) and net interest margin (NIM) expansion [1][4] - The industry consists of specialized U.S. banks focusing on residential mortgage finance, offering various loan products and funding mortgages with savings insured by the FDIC [3] Industry Trends - Lower interest rates are expected to enhance NII and margins for savings and loan companies, which have faced pressure from higher funding costs [4] - A decline in mortgage rates is anticipated to boost purchase originations and refinancing activities, increasing loan demand across various categories [5] - Companies are transitioning to digital operations to remain competitive, despite facing challenges from legacy technologies [6][7] Asset Quality Concerns - Prolonged higher interest rates may lead to a deterioration in asset quality, as portfolio companies struggle to service debt amid geopolitical risks and tariff uncertainties [8] Industry Performance - The Zacks Savings and Loan industry ranks 14, placing it in the top 6% of over 245 Zacks industries, indicating solid prospects for outperformance [9][10] - The industry has underperformed the Zacks Finance sector but outperformed the S&P 500, with a collective gain of 20% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's 10.5% increase [12] Valuation Metrics - The industry has a trailing 12-month price-to-tangible book ratio (P/TBV) of 1.72X, below the five-year median of 1.97X, indicating a discount compared to the broader market [16][18] Company Highlights - **WSFS Financial**: With $20.5 billion in assets, the company expects mid-single-digit growth in commercial lending and a net interest margin of 3.80% for 2025, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings at $4.59, reflecting a 4.6% year-over-year rise [21][22][23] - **Provident Financial**: After merging with Lakeland Bancorp, the company has $24.2 billion in assets and is expected to see a 69.4% year-over-year rise in earnings to $2.05 for 2025, with shares climbing 29.1% over the past year [26][29] - **Riverview Bancorp**: With assets of $1.51 billion, the company is focused on expanding revenue through commercial banking initiatives, expecting a 4.4% increase in earnings to 24 cents for fiscal 2025, with shares gaining 41.6% in the past year [32][34]

Core Insights - Popular, Inc. (BPOP) shares reached a 52-week high of $107.15, with a 10.6% increase over the past six months, outperforming its industry and peers [1][6] Financial Performance - The company achieved a four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6% in revenues, 6.8% in net loans, and 3.4% in total deposits from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong organic growth [4] - Net interest income (NII) grew at a CAGR of 5.3% during the same period, supported by increased loan balances and improved asset yields [7] - The net interest margin (NIM) expanded from 2.88% in 2021 to 3.40% in Q1 2025, with expectations for further improvement due to loan repricing and declining deposit costs [7] Sales and Earnings Estimates - Zacks Consensus Estimates project sales of $3.13 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.54% [5] - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward by 1.2% and 4.6%, respectively, indicating expected growth of 17.1% for 2025 and 20% for 2026 [14] Strategic Initiatives - The company has invested $300 million in technology infrastructure and made strategic acquisitions to enhance efficiency and client experience since launching its transformation program in 2022 [8] - A $500 million share repurchase program was initiated in August 2024, with $160 million remaining as of March 31, 2025 [10] Liquidity and Capital Management - Popular maintains a robust liquidity position of $6.6 billion and total debt of $1.4 billion, indicating low refinancing risk [9] - The company raised its quarterly dividend by 12.9% to $0.70 per share in late 2024, with an annualized dividend growth of 12.86% over the past five years [9] Profitability Metrics - BPOP's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) is 12.22%, significantly higher than the industry average of 9.74% and its peers, F.N.B. (7.97%) and Pinnacle Financial Partners (9.29%) [10][11] Challenges - Operating costs have increased at a CAGR of 6.7% from 2020 to 2024, primarily due to technology investments and personnel expenses [12] - The credit profile faces challenges, with nearly 50% of the loan portfolio in commercial loans, which are more vulnerable in a weakening economic environment [13] Valuation - BPOP trades at a P/E (F1) multiple of 10.04X, which is lower than the industry average of 11.1X, indicating a potentially attractive investment opportunity [16][20]

Core Viewpoint - State Street Corp (STT) is well-positioned for growth due to higher interest rates, improved fee income efforts, strategic acquisitions, and a solid balance sheet, although rising expenses and concentrated fee-based revenues pose concerns [1] Growth Drivers - Higher interest rates are expected to aid net interest revenues, with net interest income (NII) projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1% over the next three years, despite a decline in NIM from 1.20% to 1.10% in 2023 [2][3] - Total fee revenues showed a four-year CAGR of 1.7%, driven by increased client activity and market volatility, with AUC/A and AUM recording CAGRs of 4.7% and 8%, respectively [4] Strategic Initiatives - State Street is expanding through strategic acquisitions, including partnerships with smallcase and Ethic Inc., and acquiring global custody businesses from Mizuho Financial Group [7][8] - The company is also restructuring its global operations, consolidating its European joint ventures, and enhancing its service offerings to drive revenue and cost synergies [9] Financial Health - As of March 31, 2025, State Street had total debt of $36.7 billion and cash and deposits totaling $124.1 billion, with a 10% increase in quarterly dividends to 76 cents per share and a $5 billion share buyback authorization [11][12] - The company aims to distribute approximately 80% of its earnings to shareholders this year, indicating a sustainable capital distribution strategy [12] Challenges - Rising operating expenses have been a concern, with total non-interest expenses showing a four-year CAGR of 2.3%, and projected increases of 3%, 2.1%, and 4.7% in the coming years [13][14] - Fee income, which constituted 78.3% of total revenues in Q1 2025, faces risks from market volatility and concentration risk, which could significantly impact the company's financial position [15][16] Market Performance - Shares of STT have increased by 28.9%, outperforming the industry average of 19%, and currently hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [17]