June Retail Sales Beat Expectations As Americans Kept Spendinghttps://t.co/MYvjjbIlQf https://t.co/wRMAJpqx8O ...

Market Performance - S&P 500 创下新纪录高位 [1] - 股票受到好于预期的盈利、零售额和首次申请失业金人数的提振 [1]

Bond Market & Yields - The 10-year yield remains stagnant at 446%, mirroring levels from November, indicating a lack of movement in borrowing costs [1] - Despite positive economic data, bond yields experienced an initial rise followed by a slight decrease, influenced by technical factors [4] - Key psychological levels for yields are identified: just under 2% for 2-year, 450% for 10-year, and 500% for 30-year maturities [5] Economic Data & Fed Policy - Retail sales show a healthy rebound, and initial jobless claims hit a three-month low at 221000 [2][3] - Market expectations for Fed funds imply less easing, shifting from over two quarter-point cuts to 170% [3] - Strong economic data initially pushed yields higher, aligning with typical market behavior [4] Dollar Index - The dollar index is nearing a one-month high, approaching the significant psychological level of 100 [7] - Increased interest rates and a decent labor market contribute to the strengthening of the dollar index [6]

Economic Growth - China's second quarter GDP growth was 53%, exceeding expectations of 51% [1] - June's industrial added value above designated size increased by 68% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 56% [1] Consumption - June's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 48% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 56% [1] Employment - June's surveyed urban unemployment rate was 50%, meeting expectations [1] Investment - From January to June, urban fixed asset investment increased by 28% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 37% [1]

The UK economy is showing more signs of rebounding from its recent slump, with a jump in June retail sales https://t.co/XGYAL4Dxpf ...

Core Insights - US inflation may be quietly rising as companies gradually pass higher import costs onto consumers, with a focus on upcoming consumer inflation and retail data [1] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month in June, the highest increase in five months, with a year-over-year increase projected at 2.9%, marking the first rebound since January [1][2] - Analysts anticipate cumulative inflation pressure as companies adjust pricing in the second half of the year, despite limited tariff transmission reflected in June data [2] Inflation Dynamics - The transmission of price changes is uneven, with certain goods experiencing tariff impacts while service prices remain soft, indicating a mixed inflation landscape [2] - Consumer sensitivity to prices is heightened due to a cooling job market and slowing wage growth, complicating retailers' decisions on price increases [2] - The tug-of-war between corporate pricing strategies and consumer resilience adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, with upcoming meetings set to consider these inflation trends [2] Retail Sales Data - Following the CPI report, the US Commerce Department will release June retail sales data, which is expected to show a slight rebound after two months of decline [3] - Weak consumer spending aligns with a cooling job market, and lackluster retail sales data could support the narrative of a "soft landing" for the US economy [3] - Together, the CPI and retail sales data will provide insights into the current state of the US economy at the intersection of inflation and growth, particularly in light of the evolving tariff policies [3]

Swedish retail sales fell the most in more than two decades last month, increasing pressure on the country’s central bank to lower rates again https://t.co/oZ6dnP2XDH ...

Labor Market - Non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, exceeding the forecast of 125,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [1] Inflation and Consumer Spending - CPI report indicated inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in May, with core inflation steady at 2.8% [2] - Headline retail sales dropped 0.9% month-over-month, a sharper decline than expected [3] - Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.4% month-over-month, indicating a slowdown [3] Economic Outlook - The US economy continues to show resilience despite some moderation in retail sales [1][4] - Analysts believe the May data does not fundamentally challenge the narrative of a resilient economy, at least not yet [4] - The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this resilience can last, with inflation risks and policy changes ahead [4]

Brett Schulman, Cava co-founder and CEO, joins ‘Money Movers’ to react to a weaker-than-expected retail sales number, and to share his outlook on the consumer and inflation. ...

We are just seconds away from retail sales and import prices. The futures this morning are weaker. Not as weak as they've been though.Down 160 right now for the Dow. Let's get right over to Rick Santelli at the CME in Chicago. Rick, yes, we could see yields moving lower.The market's smart. Retail sales for the month of May coming in at minus minus 9/10 of a percent. Almost down 1%.This is much more aggressive to the downside than we were expecting. We're expecting a number in the vicinity of down half a per ...