With an S&P 500 bear market underway, there are plenty of "discounted" stocks to be found. President Donald Trump's tariff strategy could cause inflation to surge, and many experts see the chances of a U.S. recession in 2025 as much higher than they were a few months ago. The general uncertainty of the situation has caused the sharpest market downturn since the 2008 financial crisis.However, there are some excellent businesses that were already trading at attractive valuations before 2025's downturn. Here a ...

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector is currently the best-performing stock market sector, with a year-to-date increase of 7.9%, contrasting with a 5.1% decline in the S&P 500, driven by leading oil and gas companies that provide safety amid economic uncertainty and trade tensions [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Cash Flow - ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are highlighted as strong dividend stocks due to their ability to generate significant free cash flow (FCF) even at current oil prices [2][3] - ExxonMobil aims to break even at $30 per barrel Brent by 2030 and projects $110 billion in surplus cash through 2030, even if Brent averages $55 per barrel [4] - Chevron expects to generate $5 billion in FCF at $70 Brent in 2025 and $6 billion in 2026, with 75% of its oil investments breaking even below $50 per barrel Brent [5] - ConocoPhillips is investing in long-term projects expected to yield $6 billion in incremental FCF, supported by its acquisition of Marathon Oil [6] Group 2: Capital Return Programs - All three companies are returning substantial amounts to shareholders, with ExxonMobil returning $36 billion in 2024, Chevron over $75 billion between 2022 and 2024, and ConocoPhillips planning to return $10 billion in 2025 [7][8][9] - Despite high yields, these companies spent more on buybacks than dividends in 2024, indicating strong FCF generation and providing a cushion against falling oil prices [10] Group 3: Financial Health and Valuation - ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips maintain strong balance sheets with debt-to-capital ratios near 10-year lows, allowing them to support operations and capital expenditures with FCF [12][13] - The companies exhibit reasonable valuations with low price-to-earnings and price-to-FCF ratios, suggesting they are good investment values [14] - Valuation metrics are based on trailing-12-month results, and while margins may decrease with lower oil prices in 2025, acquisitions and expansions could still drive earnings and FCF growth [15][16][17] Group 4: Investment Appeal - ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are positioned to grow cash flows and return profits to shareholders, offering yields significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 1.3%, making them attractive for passive income investors [18] - Although energy is not typically viewed as a safe sector, these high-quality companies are considered safe stocks due to their strong balance sheets and manageable payouts [19]

Core Viewpoint - Nike's stock has declined significantly from its all-time high in 2021, now trading at multiyear lows, raising concerns about its recovery potential amid various market challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - Leadership changes and a new corporate strategy focusing on product innovation and key markets in China and North America may aid in Nike's recovery [2]. - Despite challenges such as trade tensions, weak consumer spending, and high interest rates, there are reasons for optimism regarding Nike's near-term performance [3]. - Nike has become a balanced capital allocator, utilizing buybacks and dividends to return value to shareholders, moving away from a heavy reliance on organic growth [5]. Group 2: Dividend and Buyback Programs - Nike has increased its dividend for 23 consecutive years, resulting in a yield of 2.3%, which is higher than the S&P 500 average of 1.3% [6]. - The company is currently offering its highest yield in over 15 years, making it an attractive option for passive income [7]. - In June 2022, Nike's board approved an $18 billion buyback program, with $499 million in stock repurchased in the most recent quarter, totaling 119.3 million shares repurchased for $11.8 billion [9]. Group 3: Financial Health and Future Outlook - Despite slowing growth, Nike's strong cash flow supports its ability to continue raising dividends and buying back stock, indicating financial resilience [10][11]. - The ongoing buyback program suggests management's confidence in the stock's undervaluation, providing a margin for error in capital allocation [12]. - Nike is viewed as an intriguing buy for value investors, although the stock may remain under pressure until there is clear evidence of sales and operating margin improvement [13].

Core Viewpoint - Small-cap companies, defined as those with market capitalizations between $250 million and $2 billion, are increasingly engaging in share buybacks, which can significantly impact their earnings per share and share prices, despite the smaller scale compared to large-cap companies [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Announcements - Fresh Del Monte Produce announced a share buyback authorization of $150 million, representing over 11% of its $1.42 billion market capitalization, with no set end date for the program [4][5]. - Axcelis Technologies revealed a buyback authorization of $100 million, bringing its total buyback capacity to $215 million, which is 12% of its $1.8 billion market cap [6][8]. - Fiverr International announced a second $100 million buyback program, equal to just under 11% of its $922 million market capitalization, following the full utilization of its first buyback authorization in 2024 [9][10]. Group 2: Company Performance and Financials - Fresh Del Monte's revenue is heavily driven by bananas, which accounted for 34% of total revenue in 2024, and the company has averaged $48 million in annual share repurchases over the past decade [4][5]. - Axcelis Technologies experienced a 10% revenue drop in 2024, but had previously seen revenue growth of over 23% from 2021 to 2023, with 41% of its revenue in 2024 coming from silicon carbide-based wafers [7][8]. - Fiverr International has seen a 365% increase in revenue since its IPO in 2019, although its annual revenue growth rate has significantly decreased from 77% during the COVID peak to just 8% in 2024 [10].

Core Viewpoint - FedEx has revised its full-year profit and revenue guidance downward, indicating ongoing struggles in its recovery and raising concerns for both the company and the broader U.S. economy [1][3]. Financial Performance - FedEx now expects adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2025 to be between $18 and $18.60, down from a previous range of $19 to $20 and significantly below the original target of $20 to $22 [2]. - Revenue for the year ending in May is expected to be flat or slightly down year over year, a downgrade from earlier forecasts that anticipated flat revenue [2][10]. - In the fiscal third quarter, adjusted earnings were reported at $4.51 per share, an increase from $3.86 in the same quarter last year, although it fell slightly below analysts' expectations [8]. Economic Context - The company is facing challenges due to continued weakness in the U.S. industrial economy, which is impacting demand for its business-to-business services [4][10]. - The industrial economy is crucial for FedEx's high-volume shipments, but it has been struggling while e-commerce demand, which is lower-margin, continues to dominate [5][10]. - External factors such as proposed tariffs and fears of a trade war are adding to the uncertainty, potentially affecting U.S. manufacturers and shipping demand [7][10]. Strategic Initiatives - FedEx is actively pursuing a stock buyback program, having repurchased $500 million worth of shares in the latest quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to $2.5 billion, signaling management's confidence in its long-term transformation plan [9]. - The company aims to achieve permanent cost reductions of $2.2 billion in fiscal 2025 to bolster profitability in the coming years [10]. Market Implications - FedEx's struggles may serve as a bellwether for the overall U.S. economy, with its performance potentially indicating broader economic trends [11].