Align Technology (NasdaqGS:ALGN) 2025 Conference November 18, 2025 05:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsJoe Hogan - President and CEOJohn Morici - CFOConference Call ParticipantsNone - AnalystNoneI'm an analyst on the U.S. Medical Supply and Devices team, and this is a session for Align Technology from the company. We've got Joe Hogan, President and CEO; John Morici, CFO; and we've also got Shirley Stacy here as well. Thank you all for joining us today.Joe HoganOf course. Thanks for having us.I guess just to sta ...

Group 1 - The Magnificent Seven, a group of tech-focused firms, dominate the S&P 500, accounting for one-third of its total market capitalization [2] - The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (BATS: MAGS) has returned nearly 20% year-to-date, outperforming the broader market despite early 2025 volatility [2] - Investors may overlook promising opportunities in tech-adjacent companies with strong fundamentals, such as Align Technology, Marvell Technology, and EPAM Systems [3] Group 2 - Align Technology, known for its Invisalign system, leverages AI to enhance efficiency in the orthodontic market, positioning itself as a tech-focused option in the medical device sector [4] - In Q3, Align Technology reported a revenue increase of approximately 2% year-over-year, reaching nearly $1 billion, with earnings per share exceeding analyst expectations by 23 cents [5] - The growth of Align Technology is driven by increased adoption rates among teens and children, aided by AI in treatment planning [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 total revenues were $996 million, reflecting a 1.8% year-over-year increase and a 1.7% sequential decrease [4][19] - Q3 non-GAAP operating margin was 23.9%, exceeding the outlook of approximately 22% [4][27] - Q3 gross margin was 64.2%, down 5.7 points sequentially and 5.5 points year-over-year [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 clear aligner revenues were $806 million, up 2.4% year-over-year and slightly up sequentially [5][19] - Q3 systems and services revenues were $190 million, down 8.6% sequentially and slightly down year-over-year [21][22] - Q3 clear aligner volume reached 648,000 cases, a 5% year-over-year increase [5][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Clear aligner volumes grew year-over-year in APAC and EMEA regions, while North America showed mixed results [9][12] - Q3 clear aligner volumes increased by 14.7% sequentially for teens and kids, driven by strong performance in APAC, North America, and Latin America [13][14] - DSO performance in EMEA showed double-digit growth year-over-year [12][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing digital workflow innovations and expanding its product portfolio, including new iTero Digital Solutions [6][7] - Align Technology aims to support doctors with localized marketing and education to navigate challenges in the U.S. dental market [36][37] - The company is committed to improving operational efficiency and capital structure through restructuring actions [35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the growth in clear aligners and digital scanning solutions, despite challenges in the North American retail channel [36][37] - The company anticipates Q4 2025 revenues to be between $1.025 billion and $1.045 billion, with expected growth in clear aligner volume and average selling price [32][33] - Management highlighted the importance of consumer confidence in driving demand and plans to leverage brand strength to support retail customers [64] Other Important Information - The company has partnered with Healthcare Finance Direct to enhance affordability for patients seeking Invisalign treatment [10][84] - As of September 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $1,004.6 million, with a share repurchase program in place [29][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on early Q4 market conditions and ClinCheck launch impact on gross margins - Management noted positive sentiment from Q3 results and emphasized the efficiency improvements from the new ClinCheck technology [41][43] Question: Clarification on ASP trends and pricing environment - ASP was impacted by a mix shift towards lower-priced markets, but management expects improvements in Q4 due to seasonal factors [50][52] Question: Factors affecting North American retail demand - Management indicated that economic issues are affecting retail customers more than DSOs, and plans to enhance marketing efforts to support retail doctors [63][64] Question: Year-over-year growth in EMEA and APAC - Management confirmed double-digit growth in both regions, with strong performance across various countries [68][69] Question: Insights on the Healthcare Finance Direct partnership - The partnership is helping to increase patient financing options, with expectations for continued growth in Q4 and beyond [84] Question: Competitive landscape in China and VBP implications - Management is aware of the evolving competitive landscape and is positioning the company to adapt to potential changes [90][92]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 total revenues were $996 million, reflecting a 1.8% year-over-year increase and a 1.7% sequential decrease [5][20] - Q3 non-GAAP operating margin was 23.9%, exceeding the outlook of approximately 22% [5][28] - Q3 net income per diluted share was $2.61, up $0.11 sequentially and up $0.26 year-over-year [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 clear aligner revenues were $806 million, a 2.4% year-over-year increase [6][20] - Q3 systems and services revenues were $190 million, down 8.6% sequentially and down 0.6% year-over-year [22][25] - Q3 clear aligner volume was 648,000 cases, a 5% year-over-year increase [6][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Clear aligner volumes increased year-over-year in APAC and EMEA regions, while North America showed mixed results [10][14] - Q3 clear aligner volumes for teens and kids saw a 14.7% sequential increase, driven by strength in APAC, North America, and Latin America [14][15] - DSO performance grew double digits year-over-year, particularly in EMEA and APAC regions [13][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing digital workflow innovations and expanding its product portfolio to drive long-term growth [5][37] - Investments in AI-powered treatment planning and direct 3D printing of aligners are key to improving outcomes and efficiency [37] - The company aims to navigate headwinds in the U.S. dental market by supporting doctor customers with localized marketing and education [38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the growth in clear aligners and digital scanning solutions, despite mixed results in the North American retail channel [37] - The company anticipates Q4 2025 worldwide revenues to be in the range of $1.025 billion to $1.045 billion, indicating sequential growth [33] - For fiscal 2025, the company expects clear aligner volume growth to be mid-single digits and revenue growth to be flat to slightly up from 2024 [34] Other Important Information - The company has partnered with Healthcare Finance Direct to enhance affordability for patients seeking Invisalign treatment [11][85] - As of September 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $1.004 billion, with a share repurchase plan in place [30][31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on early Q4 market conditions and ClinCheck launch impact on gross margins - Management noted positive sentiment from Q3 and highlighted the efficiency improvements expected from the new ClinCheck technology [42][44] Question: Clarification on ASP trends and pricing environment - ASP was impacted by geographic mix, with expectations for improvement in Q4 as Europe contributes more to total sales [51][53] Question: Factors affecting North American retail demand - Management indicated that economic issues are affecting retail customers more than DSOs, and efforts will focus on localized marketing to drive demand [64][65] Question: Year-over-year growth in EMEA and APAC markets - Management confirmed double-digit growth in both regions, with strong performance across various countries [70][72] Question: Insights on the Healthcare Finance Direct partnership - The partnership is helping to increase patient conversions, with more doctors utilizing the financing option [85] Question: Competitive landscape in China and VBP implications - Management is aware of the VBP developments and is positioning the company accordingly, though specifics remain unclear [90][91]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues for Q3 2025 were $995.7 million, up 1.8% year-over-year but down 1.7% sequentially [19][30] - Q3 non-GAAP operating margin was 23.9%, exceeding the outlook of approximately 22% [4][27] - Q3 gross margin was 64.2%, down 5.7 points sequentially and down 5.5 points year-over-year [23][24] - Q3 net income per share was $0.78, down from $1.71 sequentially and down from $1.55 year-over-year [29][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Clear aligner revenues were $805.8 million, up 2.4% year-over-year and slightly up sequentially [5][19] - Clear aligner volume reached 648,000 cases, increasing roughly 5% year-over-year [5][10] - Systems and services revenues were $189.9 million, down 8.6% sequentially and down 0.6% year-over-year [22][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Clear aligner volumes grew in EMEA and APAC regions, with strong performance in teens and kids categories [3][10] - North America retail channel performance remained mixed, with growth in DSO channels [4][11] - Q3 clear aligner volumes increased year-over-year for both orthodontists and GPs, driven by growth across adults, teens, and kids [10][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on driving consumer demand and patient conversion through partnerships with DSO [4][11] - Investment in AI-powered treatment planning software and digital scanning technology is aimed at improving efficiency and patient experience [38] - The company plans to navigate headwinds in the U.S. dental market by enhancing localized marketing and clinical support [39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the growth in clear aligner segments and digital scanning solutions despite mixed performance in North America [38] - The company anticipates Q4 2025 revenues to be in the range of $1,025 million to $1,045 million, indicating sequential growth [33] - For fiscal 2025, the company expects clear aligner volume growth to be mid-single digits and revenue growth to be flat to slightly up from 2024 [34][36] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 0.5 million shares at an average price of $136.77 as part of a $200 million repurchase plan [30] - Cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025, were $1,004.6 million, up sequentially but down year-over-year [30][31] - The company has stopped charging VAT to impacted customers in the UK as of August 1, 2025, adjusting prices accordingly [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on early Q4 and ClinCheck launch impact on gross margins - Management felt positive about Q3 performance and highlighted the efficiency improvements from the new ClinCheck technology [42][45] Question: ASP expectations and pricing environment - ASP was impacted by a mix shift towards lower-priced markets, but management expects it to improve in Q4 [50][52] Question: North American retail market challenges - Management noted consistent challenges in the North American retail market, emphasizing the need for localized marketing efforts [60][61] Question: Growth in the teen segment - Significant growth in the teen segment was attributed to new products and strong performance in China and EMEA [72][74] Question: DSO performance and its impact - DSOs accounted for about 25% of the business, showing robust growth compared to retail channels [75][77] Question: Healthcare Finance Direct partnership impact - The partnership is helping to increase patient financing options, with expectations for continued growth in Q4 [85] Question: Competitive landscape in China - Management is aware of potential VBP impacts and is positioning the company accordingly, focusing on expanding market reach [90][96]

Financial Performance - Q3 2025 total revenues were $9957 million, a 18% year-over-year increase[21] - Q3 2025 Clear Aligner revenues reached $8058 million, up 24% year-over-year[21] - Q3 2025 Systems and Services revenues were $1899 million, a 06% year-over-year decrease[21] - Q3 2025 GAAP operating margin was 97%, a 69 percentage point decrease year-over-year[21] - Q3 2025 non-GAAP operating margin was 239%, a 18 percentage point increase year-over-year[98] Clear Aligner Segment - Q3 2025 worldwide Clear Aligner shipments totaled 6478K cases, a 49% year-over-year increase[22] - International Clear Aligner volume accounted for 52% of the total, while Americas accounted for 48%[28] - Clear Aligner average per case shipment price was $1245, down $30 year-over-year[88] - Over 63 million teens and kids have been treated with the Invisalign System to date[30] Systems and Services Segment - There are over 120K active iTero units globally, representing roughly half of the intraoral scanning global market[16, 62] - CAD/CAM and Services revenues represent approximately 50% of the Systems and Services business[68] Consumer and Marketing - Americas consumer campaigns delivered 25 billion impressions and 52 million unique website visitors[51] - APAC delivered 68 billion impressions and 20 million website visits in Q3[52]

Company Overview - Align Technology, Inc. is the company behind Invisalign, a clear plastic alternative to traditional metal braces, headquartered in Tempe, AZ, with a market cap of $9.5 billion [2] - Since receiving FDA clearance in 1998, Invisalign has gained traction, particularly among adult users seeking a discreet solution for teeth alignment [2] Market Dynamics - The treatment process involves consultation, digital scanning with Align's proprietary iTero technology, and the delivery of custom plastic aligners, with dental professionals monitoring progress [3] - Demand surged during COVID lockdowns in 2020–21, but growth has moderated in recent years due to intensified competition following the expiration of key patents in 2017 [3] - In 2024, approximately 65% of volume came from adult customers, making the business sensitive to economic trends [3] Financial Performance - Align maintains a strong franchise with roughly 20.8 million lifetime patients and a 70% gross margin pre-charges [4] - The company has over 100,000 installed iTero scanners, representing about half the global intraoral scanning market [4] - Clear aligner average selling prices (ASPs) have been pressured by product mix shifts and discounting, while volume growth remains flat [4] Competitive Position - Align's economic moat now relies more on its digital workflow platform, ADP tools, and scanner ecosystem, along with significant brand recognition [4] - Many consumers refer to all clear aligners as "Invisalign," indicating strong brand loyalty and high switching costs for dental offices already embedded in its system [4] - The company's leading innovation position continues to make it the most likely source of future breakthroughs in clear aligner technology, providing long-term upside potential despite near-term margin pressures and competitive headwinds [4] Investment Thesis - The bullish thesis emphasizes Align Technology's clear aligner leadership, digital workflow platform, and brand recognition as core drivers of long-term value [5]

Company Overview - Align Technology is a leading manufacturer in the global orthodontics market, which is valued at $6.5 billion, primarily known for its Invisalign system of clear aligners [1]. Leadership Presentation - The presentation features key executives including Chief Financial Officer John Morici and Vice President of Finance, Corporate and Investor Communications Shirley Stacy, indicating a strong leadership presence [2].

Align Technology Conference Summary Company Overview - Align Technology operates in the global orthodontics market valued at $6.5 billion, primarily known for its Invisalign clear aligners [2][2]. Key Points and Arguments Pricing Strategy - Align Technology is exploring new pricing alternatives, including a potential shift to a 3x2, 3x1, and 3x0 model, allowing doctors to take on some risk and pay lower upfront costs [5][6]. - The introduction of these pricing models aims to make Invisalign more competitive against traditional brackets and wires, with entry-level pricing potentially around $800 [11][12]. - The gross margin for products with fewer refinements is higher, as refinements incur additional costs [13][14]. Market Dynamics - The company is experiencing mixed growth across different regions, with strong performance in Eastern Europe and Turkey, while facing challenges in Western Europe due to political and economic uncertainties [36][37]. - Align Technology is focused on reducing barriers to treatment, particularly through financing options, to convert potential patients into actual customers [27][30]. Competitive Landscape - The clear aligner market is seeing a shakeout, with many smaller competitors exiting due to high capital requirements and the need for technological investment [39][42]. - Align Technology is committed to maintaining its leadership position by investing heavily in R&D, spending over $350 million annually, which is significantly higher than many competitors [50][58]. Innovation and Technology - The company is advancing its manufacturing capabilities through DirectFab printing technology, which allows for greater customization and efficiency in producing aligners [60][66]. - Align Technology aims to scale this technology over the next few years, enhancing its product offerings and maintaining a competitive edge [67][68]. Financial Performance and Guidance - The second quarter of the year showed softer performance than expected, particularly in June, which was attributed to economic concerns affecting consumer behavior [32][33]. - Align Technology is committed to achieving 100 basis points of margin expansion annually over the next few years, despite initial higher costs associated with new manufacturing technologies [68][69]. Additional Important Insights - The company is actively pursuing litigation against competitors like Angel Align to protect its intellectual property and ensure fair competition in the market [48][53]. - Align Technology's strategy includes enhancing treatment planning and patient engagement through real-time visualization tools, which are expected to improve conversion rates from consultations to treatments [59][60]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Align Technology conference, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market challenges, and innovative approaches to maintain its leadership in the orthodontics industry.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced sequential improvement in volume from Q1 to Q2, but the growth was not as significant as expected, particularly in the teen treatment season [2][3] - Guidance for Q3 was based on June's performance, with expectations for a step-up in Q4, particularly in Europe and North America [4][5] - Anticipated margin improvement in Q4 is driven by volume leverage and benefits from the UK VAT, with an annualized impact of approximately $35 million [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The iTero segment is expected to see increased full system sales in Q4, following a period of upgrades [5][36] - The company is introducing new products, including mandibular advancement and occlusal blocks, which are expected to drive volume in Q4 [6][48] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The clear aligner market is experiencing double-digit growth in regions such as Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America, despite challenges in North America and Western Europe [15][57] - The company noted that DSOs (Dental Service Organizations) are growing faster than individual practices due to their digital orthodontic strategies [43][61] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its diverse product portfolio to meet varying customer needs, including lower-priced options to drive conversion [24][27] - There is a focus on educating potential patients and their parents about the benefits of clear aligners, particularly in the teen demographic [46][51] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that elevated interest rates and inflation are impacting patient purchasing behavior, with interest rates being a significant factor in elective dental procedures [11][13] - The company remains optimistic about its long-term growth potential, targeting 5% to 15% top-line growth, driven by underpenetrated markets and increased adoption of clear aligners [60][64] Other Important Information - The company is actively pursuing patent infringement lawsuits against competitors, emphasizing the importance of protecting its intellectual property [70][71] Q&A Session Summary Question: What investor feedback have you received since reporting Q2? - Management noted that discussions focused on the quarter's performance and expectations versus actual results [2] Question: How do you see the rest of the year playing out for Q3 and Q4? - Guidance for Q3 was based on June's performance, with expectations for a step-up in Q4 driven by seasonal trends and new product introductions [4][5] Question: What is the impact of the macro environment on elective dental procedures? - Interest rates are a key factor influencing patient decisions, with lower rates potentially driving higher conversion rates [11][13] Question: How is the clear aligner market expected to recover? - The company sees growth opportunities in underpenetrated markets, with many regions experiencing double-digit growth [15][57] Question: What strategies are being deployed to overcome uneven patient case conversion? - The company is focusing on educating patients and offering a range of product options to meet different price sensitivities [24][27] Question: What are the trends in teen and kid case starts? - Teen case starts are expected to grow faster than adult cases, with a significant market opportunity available [44][46] Question: How should we think about pricing in 2026? - Pricing is expected to trend slightly down due to a mix shift towards lower-priced products, but the company aims to maintain gross margins [56][58] Question: What is the latest on the patent infringement lawsuits? - The company is serious about protecting its intellectual property and is pursuing legal action against competitors using its technology [70][71]