Market Outlook - CNBC's Fed survey participants show growing optimism about the outlook for markets, anticipating a bounce back in the economy and stocks in 2026 [1] - The survey projects the S&P 500 to reach 6133 by year-end, a 15% increase, and 6625 in 2026, nearly a 10% increase from yesterday's close [2] - Equity markets are near all-time highs, anticipating certainty on tariffs, extension of the 2017 tax cuts, deregulation, AI productivity, and Fed easing, potentially leading to economic reacceleration in the second half into 2026 [2][3] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - The survey indicates no expectation for a rate cut next month, with the funds rate remaining above the long run neutral rate into 2026 [4][5] - The survey builds in two rate cuts for this year and one for next year [4][5] Fiscal Policy and Deficit - 82% of respondents believe the tax bill will increase the deficit [3] - Opinions are divided on the tax bill's impact on growth, with 29% more optimistic, 29% less optimistic, and 43% believing it doesn't matter [3][4] Inflation and Tariffs - A 43% to 32% margin believes tariffs will be one-time price increases rather than creating broader inflation [6] - 61% of respondents anticipate tariff inflation is yet to come in the months ahead [6]

Budget Bill & Market Focus - The Senate's version of the budget bill differs significantly from the House version, particularly regarding salt deductions, which are proposed to return to $10,000 from $40,000 [2] - The bill is perceived as market-driven, aiming to strengthen the economy, with tax cuts playing a significant role [4][6][14] - The bill is not primarily focused on cost reduction and is expected to increase the national debt [5][6] Medicaid & Work Requirements - The Senate's version avoids drastic cuts to Medicaid expansion, maintaining the federal government's share at 90% instead of reducing it to 50%, which would have affected approximately 20 million people [3][4] - Implementing work requirements for Medicaid recipients is complex and could lead to bureaucratic challenges and potential legal battles [8][9][10][12] - States may need to invest significant funds to implement and defend work requirement systems in court [12] Economic Outlook & Tax Cuts - Tax cuts are expected to support the economy, potentially leading to a rate cut later in the fall [14][15] - Weak job numbers are anticipated in September, October, and November due to federal employees leaving, which could impact how tax cuts are perceived [15][16] - Reinvesting business tax cuts back into the economy is crucial for achieving higher growth and managing the deficit [17] Medicaid System Challenges - Medicaid is overly complex, with approximately 1,500 ten-digit codes, leading to waste, fraud, abuse, and misbilling [22][23][24] - Simplifying Medicaid at the federal level is essential to address these issues, but Washington often overlooks the complexities at the grassroots level [25][27] - Medicaid and Medicare are major drivers of increasing government spending, while discretionary spending receives more attention [30][31] Fiscal Sustainability Concerns - A fiscal crisis is anticipated in approximately eight years, with Social Security and Medicare facing bankruptcy and debt reaching $42 trillion [33][34] - Interest rate payments are projected to increase from $1 trillion to $1.3 trillion annually in about nine years [34] - Addressing these long-term fiscal challenges requires political courage, but there is a reluctance to tackle issues like Medicaid and Medicare [33]

boosting the richest by $12,000 a year. Joining us right now is Phil Swagel. He's the director of the Congressional Budget Office.And Phil, let's talk through some of the criticism you've received. Russ Vought said on X that this bill reduces deficits by $1.4% trillion. When you adjust for the CBO's one big gimmick, not using a realistic current policy baseline.Caroline Leavitt said that the CBO assumes long term GDP growth of an anemic 1.8%. And that's absurd. And then you had President Trump himself sayin ...

Speaker Mike Johnson says Republicans are on track to pass President uh Trump's tax and spending bill by a July 4th deadline, but the House and Senate are still facing challenges over potential changes to the bill. Join us now, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Uh he's the uh he's the chairman of the Alpha Institute.Walked in here whistling with so I mean he's in such a good mood. It's like he's always happy. Come on.Great to be an American years ago. number and and Becky immediately said, "Well, you're ...

Immigration Policy Analysis - Trump's deportation numbers initially lower than Biden's, later surpassed but still less than half of Obama's record [1] - Obama's 2013 deportation record surpasses Trump's [2] - There is no evidence that Trump's immigration policies are protecting American jobs or lives [2] Government Spending & Budget - $134 million of taxpayer money spent on troops in LA [3] - $45 million of taxpayer money allocated for a military parade [3] - Budget includes cuts to Medicaid, food programs, and other benefits while expanding tax cuts [3] Political Strategy & Public Perception - Trump excels at marketing and branding, aiming to be known as the "deporter chief" [2] - Trump is producing television to grab attention [2] - The report urges staying informed and engaged on every move coming out of the White House [4]

Senate Republicans are expected to propose revisions to key tax and healthc care policies in the President Trump backed budget bill this week as lawmakers rush to get the bill done by July 4th. Congress members and key White House officials are expected to meet as early as Thursday. Joining us now on this, we've got Kevin Brady.He is former chair of the House Ways and Means Committee and architect of President Trump's original tax cuts. It's great to have you on this morning, Congressman. Thank you so much ...

Market Performance - Major market indexes started the trading day in the red, with the Dow down 114 points (-0.27%), S&P 500 down 0.39%, and Nasdaq down 72 points (-0.38%). Only the Russell 2000 managed a slight gain of 1 point (+0.05%) [1] - The S&P 500 ended its six-day winning streak, indicating a potential shift in market momentum [1] Economic Context - No significant economic data was released, and there were no updates on tariff negotiations. Concerns are rising regarding a proposed tax bill that could significantly increase the federal deficit [2] - The U.S. credit rating has been downgraded by major credit agencies, reflecting growing fiscal concerns [2] Recovery Outlook - The anticipated "V-shaped recovery" appears to be stalling, particularly in the absence of major trade agreements. Major indexes have seen double-digit gains over the past month, but only the Dow and S&P 500 are positive year-to-date [3] Earnings Reports - Palo Alto Networks reported mixed fiscal Q3 results, with earnings of $0.39 per share, missing expectations by $0.02, but revenues of $2.3 billion exceeded consensus, marking a 15% year-over-year increase [4] - Toll Brothers exceeded earnings expectations with $3.50 per share against a consensus of $2.86, and revenues of $2.71 billion surpassed the $2.50 billion forecast. However, signed contracts were down 13% [4] Upcoming Market Events - The upcoming week lacks major economic reports until Thursday's Weekly Jobless Claims, with focus shifting to potential trade deals and the implications of the new tax bill on the federal deficit [5] - Big-box retailers are concluding the earnings season, with Lowe's and Target expected to report negative earnings estimates, while TJX Companies anticipates a 4% revenue growth [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - System-wide RevPAR grew by 2.5% year over year, driven by strong momentum from the end of the previous year [6][15] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $795 million, up 6% year over year, exceeding the high end of guidance [15][21] - Diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $1.72 [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group RevPAR increased by more than 6% year over year, supported by growth in urban markets and company meetings [6] - Business transient RevPAR increased by 2%, primarily from small and medium-sized businesses [6] - Leisure transient RevPAR increased by 1%, with robust performance in January followed by softening demand [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. RevPAR increased by 2.1%, driven by strong group performance [16] - In the Americas outside the U.S., RevPAR increased by 7% year over year, driven by key events in Mexico and Brazil [17] - In Europe, RevPAR grew by 2.6% year over year, with strong rate and occupancy growth in Continental Europe [18] - In the Middle East and Africa, RevPAR increased by 8.5% year over year, driven by strong performance in Saudi Arabia [18] - In the Asia Pacific region, RevPAR was flat year over year, with a decline of 3.1% in China [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to expand its development pipeline, with over 503,000 rooms, representing a 7% year-over-year increase [10][19] - The company aims for net unit growth of 6% to 7% in 2025, with nearly half of the pipeline under construction [12] - The luxury and lifestyle categories accounted for 30% of all hotel openings in the quarter, with significant growth in these portfolios [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that broader macro uncertainty intensified in March, impacting demand, particularly in leisure [6] - The company expects second quarter RevPAR to be approximately flat versus the prior year quarter, with full-year expectations of flat to up 2% [7][21] - Management expressed optimism about long-term opportunities despite current macroeconomic uncertainties, citing a resilient business model [13][36] Other Important Information - The company was named the number one best company to work for in the U.S. by Great Place to Work and Fortune for the second consecutive year [13] - A cash dividend of $0.15 per share was paid during the first quarter, with a total expected return of approximately $3.3 billion to shareholders for the year [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Perception of the recessionary environment - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the market but expressed a belief that risks are more equally weighted than perceived, with potential for upside in the long term [30][36] Question: Development environment amidst uncertainty - Management indicated that while developers are cautious, there has not been a significant impact on current projects, and they remain optimistic about development momentum [44][50] Question: Impact of economic downturn on business - Management emphasized the resilience of the business model, with low leverage and strong liquidity, preparing for any potential downturn [56][58] Question: Economic intensity of deals in APAC and China - Management highlighted that the business in China is growing through joint ventures, with no capital investment required, and emphasized the strong demand for their brands in the region [63][66] Question: Strength in group bookings - Management noted that group bookings are expected to lead RevPAR growth, despite some short-term uncertainty affecting booking patterns [72][76] Question: Clarification on non RevPAR driven fees - Management clarified that a significant portion of the first quarter's performance was due to timing, but non RevPAR driven fees are expected to outperform throughout the year [86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported system-wide RevPAR growth of 2.5% year over year, driven by strong momentum from the end of the previous year [6] - Adjusted EBITDA was $795 million in the first quarter, up 6% year over year, exceeding the high end of guidance [15] - Diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $1.72 [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group RevPAR increased more than 6% year over year, supported by growth in urban markets and company meetings [6] - Business transient RevPAR increased 2%, primarily from small and medium-sized businesses, which make up roughly 85% of the business transient mix [6] - Leisure transient RevPAR increased 1%, with robust performance in January followed by softening demand patterns [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Americas outside the U.S., first quarter RevPAR increased 7% year over year, driven by key events in Mexico and Brazil [17] - In Europe, RevPAR grew 2.6% year over year, with strong rate and occupancy growth in Continental Europe [18] - In the Asia Pacific region, first quarter RevPAR was flat year over year, with China experiencing a decline of 3.1% [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to expand its development pipeline, ending the quarter with more than 503,000 rooms, representing a 7% year-over-year increase [10] - The luxury and lifestyle categories accounted for 30% of all hotel openings in the quarter, with these portfolios approaching 1,000 hotels globally [9] - The company aims to deliver net unit growth of 6% to 7% in 2025, with nearly half of its pipeline under construction [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that broader macro uncertainty intensified in March, impacting demand, particularly in leisure [6] - The company expects second quarter RevPAR to be approximately flat versus the prior year quarter, with full-year expectations of flat to up 2% [7] - Management expressed optimism about long-term opportunities supported by a capital-light business model and favorable megatrends in travel [13] Other Important Information - The company was named the number one best company to work for in the U.S. by Great Place to Work and Fortune for the second consecutive year [13] - A cash dividend of $0.15 per share was paid during the first quarter, with a total expected return of approximately $3.3 billion to shareholders for the year [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about recessionary environment - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the market but expressed confidence in the stability of demand patterns and the potential for positive outcomes in the second half of the year [30][36] Question: Development environment amidst uncertainty - Management indicated that while developers are cautious, there has not been a significant impact on current projects, and they remain optimistic about future growth [44][50] Question: Impact of economic downturn on business - Management highlighted the resilience of the business model, emphasizing low leverage and strong access to liquidity, preparing for any potential downturn [56][58] Question: Economic intensity of deals in APAC and China - Management noted that the business in China continues to grow, with a focus on joint ventures and franchising, which allows for capital-light expansion [63][66] Question: Group performance outlook - Management remains optimistic about group performance leading the pack, despite some short-term booking softness due to uncertainty [72][76]

Group 1: Stock Performance - Shares of Dollar General, PepsiCo, and The Hershey Company fell by 5.4%, 2.9%, and 4% respectively on Wednesday [1] Group 2: Legislative Impact - The declines in these consumer staples stocks are likely due to the House of Representatives passing a budget reconciliation bill, which may lead to cuts in Medicaid and SNAP [2][5] - The budget resolution passed by a narrow margin of 217-215, with a late push from President Trump influencing the vote [3] - The resolution preserves the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 while proposing $2 trillion in spending cuts, with the Energy and Commerce committee directed to make the largest cuts totaling $880 billion [4][5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP could pressure lower-income families financially, potentially decreasing sales for Dollar General, which derives about 60% of its sales from families earning less than $30,000 annually [7] - Lower-income families may reduce purchases of branded foods from Pepsi and Hershey, opting for lower-cost private-label items instead [8] Group 4: Economic Outlook - Analysts believe that cuts to programs benefiting lower-income Americans are likely, despite the budget resolution not specifically naming these cuts [10] - Austerity measures could negatively impact economic growth, with recent consumer sentiment surveys indicating a slowdown [11][12]