Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a flat trading session, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 all down in single digits, while the Nasdaq is down by 38 points [1] - A narrow range of trading is expected to continue until after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on monetary policy [1] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market anticipates a third rate cut of 2025, with a -25 basis point reduction in the Fed funds rate already priced in [2] - There is expected dissension among FOMC members, with some advocating for no change and others, like Fed Governor Stephen Miran, likely supporting a 50 basis point cut [2] - The Fed's reluctance to cut rates is primarily due to ongoing inflation concerns, with the current inflation rate at +3.0% as of September [3][4] Inflation Metrics - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a year-over-year increase of +3.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of rising or unchanged rates [4] - A potential increase to +3.3% is anticipated for the upcoming November CPI report, based on historical trends [5] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index also reflects elevated inflation at +2.8% in September, up from +2.3% in April [6] Employment Cost Index - The Q3 Employment Cost Index (ECI) has dipped to +0.8%, which is the lowest since Q3 of the previous year, indicating no immediate inflationary pressures [7] Earnings Reports - Chewy (CHWY) reported favorable Q3 results with earnings of 32 cents per share, exceeding expectations, and revenues of $3.12 billion, which also surpassed estimates [8] - J. Jill (JILL) exceeded earnings expectations with 76 cents per share, outperforming the consensus by +31%, although revenues were lower than the previous year [9] - Oracle (ORCL) is expected to report fiscal Q2 earnings growth of +10.88% and revenue growth of +14.84% after the market closes [10] - Adobe Systems (ADBE) is anticipated to report fiscal Q4 earnings growth of +12% and revenue growth of +8.85% [11] - Synopsys (SNPS) is expected to report a decline of -17.94% in earnings but a revenue increase of +37.6% [12]

Economic Concerns & Political Implications - The discussion revolves around the US economy, focusing on affordability, inflation, and wages, with concerns that rising prices are impacting how Americans feel about the economy [2][7][8] - The President's message on the economy is being scrutinized, particularly claims about prices falling and inflation being crushed, with experts pointing out the reality of rising prices [7][8] - Affordability is highlighted as a key political issue, potentially influencing elections, similar to how healthcare impacted the 2018 elections [11][12][13] - Republicans are concerned about the President's messaging discipline, as the public's financial well-being significantly impacts their political fate [13] Trade & Manufacturing - The President defends tariffs, claiming they are reviving Pennsylvania manufacturing and steel production [13][14] - There's debate on whether tariffs are beneficial, with arguments that while raw steel production might be up, the increased cost of steel inputs negatively impacts overall manufacturing [17][18][21] - Economic data from Pennsylvania suggests a mixed picture, with flattened hiring, decreased home sales, and weakened factory activity [19] Policy Impacts & Fed Decisions - The President's policies, including tariffs, immigration policies, and changes to Obamacare, are being blamed for contributing to the affordability crisis [21][22][23] - Small businesses have reportedly shed approximately 250,000 jobs since April, potentially linked to the implementation of tariffs [24] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point (25 basis points), bringing the total decline this year to three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points), but tariff-related inflation may limit further rate cuts [26] - The President is considering candidates for the next Fed chair, with a focus on loyalty and a desire for lower interest rates [28][29][30]

Market Expectation - Financial markets overwhelmingly expect a quarter-percentage-point (0.25%) interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve [1] Market Performance - Major stock indexes were mixed and little changed Wednesday [1]

The Bank of Canada held interest rates steady and said although the economy appears resilient, keeping borrowing costs at their current level is still appropriate to mitigate the trade war damage https://t.co/l6IoA1bc6g ...

Federal Reserve Is Expected To Cut Interest Rates Today—Here’s What To Watch Forhttps://t.co/cNnTPWcvfi https://t.co/TQWJ4Gq8F0 ...

Stock futures are little changed this morning as investors await the Federal Reserve's announcement this afternoon on interest rates. Here's what investors need to know today. https://t.co/3k9M7uo4Bh ...

If you want cheaper housing, you have to cut interest rates, build more housing, and tell local city councils to stop holding the American people hostage. ...

The Fed has been behind the curve for years.They incorrectly claimed that inflation was transitory in 2021, they bankrupted banks by raising rates after saying they wouldn’t, and now they are ignoring the incoming deflation.Cut rates. Stimulate the economy. ...

Turkey’s central bank is poised to cut interest rates again, with policymakers encouraged by unexpectedly favorable inflation data https://t.co/JPFR62rCKp ...

The ECB has no reason to raise interest rates soon, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau says https://t.co/dbrH4nePv9 ...