Labor Market Analysis - The bond market anticipates a non-farm payroll number around 100,000; exceeding this figure might counter the previous month's negative revision of -258,000 [1] - A non-farm payroll number below 50,000 could increase the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - The speaker notes that the non-farm payroll data may not be entirely accurate, but it is the primary information available for analysis [2][5] Bond Market and Interest Rate Expectations - Two-year Treasury yields were at 396 basis points and 10-year yields were at 438 basis points before the previous month's non-farm payroll report [4] - Since the last report, the two-year and ten-year yields have moved mostly sideways to slightly lower [4] - The market will closely watch the upcoming non-farm payroll report, despite potential inaccuracies, as it is the key data point available [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Russell 2000 has experienced a significant rebound of nearly +9% in the last month due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, including potential interest rate cuts and clearer tariff policies, which are expected to enhance investor sentiment towards small-cap U.S. companies [1]. Company Summaries Cars.com (CARS) - Cars.com stock is currently priced at $12, which is 40% below its 52-week high of $20. The company has faced challenges due to high interest rates, inflation, and tariffs impacting consumer demand for vehicles [2]. - Earnings estimates for Cars.com have seen slight upward revisions for fiscal years 2025 and 2026. The stock trades at 7X forward earnings, with EPS expected to increase by 4% this year and projected to rise by 32% in FY26 to $2.35. The Average Zacks Price Target of $17.17 indicates a potential upside of nearly 35% [3]. OppFi (OPFI) - OppFi is priced at $10 and has gained over +30% year-to-date, yet remains 40% below its 52-week high of $17. Analysts maintain a bullish outlook, with an Average Zacks Price Target of $14 suggesting a 36% upside [8]. - The stock trades at 7X forward earnings, with FY25 EPS expected to increase by 49% to $1.49. Recent revisions have shown a 15% increase in FY25 EPS estimates following strong Q2 earnings results. Annual earnings are projected to rise by 4% in FY26 to $1.48 per share, supported by sales projections exceeding $600 million [9][10]. Quad Graphics (QUAD) - Quad Graphics is trading at $6, just above penny stock status, and is a provider of commercial printing solutions. The Average Zacks Price Target suggests a potential return to its 52-week peak of $9 [12]. - The company is profitable and trades at 6X forward earnings. EPS revisions have increased, forecasting a 13% rise in FY25 and a further 15% increase in FY26 to $1.11 per share. Additionally, Quad Graphics offers a 4.5% annual dividend yield [13][14]. Conclusion - The favorable macroeconomic environment is expected to accelerate growth for these companies, making them attractive investment opportunities within the Russell 2000 [15].

Group 1: Apple Inc. (AAPL) - Apple shares have increased by 40% over the past three years but are currently trading below their 52-week high of $260, presenting a buying opportunity [3] - The company has over 2.35 billion active devices, contributing to steady growth in services, which now account for more than 25% of its revenue [4] - Despite missing out on developing proprietary AI models, Apple generates $96 billion in free cash flow, allowing for potential acquisitions to enhance its AI capabilities [5] - The strong ecosystem and profitability of Apple provide a solid investment case, allowing time to develop its AI strategy [6] Group 2: Airbnb (ABNB) - Airbnb's stock has not reflected its growth, but the company continues to expand and increase sales, indicating potential for stock price appreciation [7] - The platform has diversified its offerings beyond short-term rentals, including longer-term stays and various services, enhancing its market presence [8][9] - Revenue growth remains in double digits, with a 13% year-over-year increase in the second quarter, and the company has generated $1 billion in free cash flow at a 31% margin [10][11] - Despite market concerns over decelerating growth and regulatory hurdles, Airbnb's business continues to thrive, suggesting that stock performance will eventually align with business success [12] Group 3: RH (formerly Restoration Hardware) - RH is positioned to benefit from potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could positively impact the housing market and related purchases [13] - The company has returned to growth with a 12% revenue increase in the first quarter, despite challenges in the housing market [14] - RH is expanding geographically and into new business verticals, including guesthouses and restaurants, which could significantly broaden its market [15] - The stock is currently trading at around 15 times next year's expected earnings, indicating it may be undervalued, with potential for a surge following upcoming earnings reports [16]

Core Insights - A lower interest rate environment is expected to stimulate economic activity, boosting oil demand and prices, while also reducing borrowing costs for shale explorers like Crescent Energy [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates, with over 80% market consensus for a cut in September [1] - However, a simple rate cut may not reverse the downward trend in oil prices, as projected by the EIA, which estimates Brent crude oil prices to decline from $71 per barrel in July to an average of $58 per barrel in Q4 2025 and around $50 per barrel in early 2026 [2][10] Oil Price Forecast - The decline in oil prices is largely driven by increased oil inventory builds following OPEC+ members' decision to accelerate production increases, which is independent of U.S. interest rate movements [3] - Geopolitical factors, such as U.S. pressure on India to reduce oil purchases from Russia, combined with global trade uncertainties, could significantly hurt U.S. oil demand, further impacting oil prices and revenues for companies like Crescent Energy [4] Company Performance - Crescent Energy's shares have increased by 32.6% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 12.8% [9] - Other U.S. shale explorers, including Chevron and Exxon Mobil, are also vulnerable to declining oil prices, with Chevron's Q2 2025 earnings dropping 40% year-over-year due to lower oil prices [5][6] - Exxon Mobil has seen a notable decline in year-to-date earnings as of June 2025, attributed to weak crude prices [6] Valuation and Earnings Outlook - Crescent Energy is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 6.66, significantly lower than the industry average of 21.26 [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Crescent Energy's near-term earnings has improved over the past 60 days [12] - Crescent Energy currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [13]

Investors will pay close attention to the PCE inflation report due at 8:30 a. m. Eastern time this morning.Let's talk more about the markets with Kevin Mann, president and chief investment officer at Henan and Walsh Asset Management. Kevin, um, first of all, I just want to get your view on the market. This is last obviously trading day of August.Um, you've studied this S&P rebound from the fifth worst start to the year to where we are today, back to record highs. How much longer do you think the rally can l ...

Market Trends & Dynamics - Cryptocurrencies are pulling back due to investors rethinking risk assets [1][2] - Bitcoin price is heavily impacted by macroeconomics, particularly expectations around US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [10] - Ether has been leading the crypto market, driven by the integration of stock versus crypto and its role in stable coin settlements [11][13][14][15] - Tokenized stocks create new risks for investors and could harm market integrity, raising concerns among regulators [7] Investment Opportunities & Risks - Bitwise is looking to add a spot Chainlink ETF to its suite of crypto-linked investment products [3][4] - Trump Media and Cryptocom are partnering for a digital asset treasury, focusing on the accumulation of the Cronos (CRO) token [4][5] - World Federation of Exchanges argues that tokenized stocks mimic equities without providing the same protections [7] - Treasury companies holding crypto assets may face challenges due to new regulations requiring more openness and compliance [19] Company Strategy & Performance - Cryptocom will acquire $50 million in Trump Media shares [6] - BitGet is not currently operating in the US due to regulatory restrictions, and despite potential changes in administration, the company remains conservative about entering the US market due to high compliance costs and competition [20][21][22][23]

Economic Landscape and Gold Prices - The current economic environment is characterized by rising uncertainty and fragile investor confidence, with comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, geopolitical tensions, and increasing inflation expectations contributing to a rally in gold prices [1][3] - Strong fundamental indicators suggest that gold's gains could extend into late 2025 and 2026, making a case for increased portfolio allocation towards gold [1] Interest Rate Expectations - Powell's recent speech indicated a potential interest rate cut, which is expected to boost gold prices as the U.S. dollar typically weakens with rate cuts, making gold more attractive [3][4] - The CME FedWatch tool shows an 87.3% likelihood of a rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to Powell's speech, with even higher probabilities for subsequent months [4] Dollar Value and Gold Demand - A weaker U.S. dollar, which has fallen approximately 7.79% over the past six months, is expected to further lift gold prices as it increases demand for gold among foreign buyers [5][6] Inflation Expectations - Rising inflation expectations, with a 12-month forecast increasing to 4.9% in August from 4.5%, and long-term expectations rising to 3.9% from 3.4%, make gold an attractive hedge against inflation [8][7] Central Bank Activity - Central banks are increasingly strengthening their gold reserves, which may drive up gold prices amid ongoing geopolitical and economic instability [9] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term passive investment strategy in gold, viewing it as a hedge against market volatility, and to consider a "buy-the-dip" approach [11] - Recommended ETFs for gold exposure include SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and others, with GLD being the most liquid option [12][13] Performance of Gold ETFs - GLD has an asset base of $102.67 billion, the largest among gold ETFs, and has gained about 35.6% over the past year, while GLDM and IAU are the cheapest options for long-term investing [13]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily focuses on the **Global Foreign Exchange (FX) and Rates Strategy** within the context of macroeconomic developments and monetary policy shifts, particularly influenced by remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Dovish Stance from Powell**: Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium have increased expectations for a potential rate cut in September, with market pricing reflecting a shift of approximately 70 basis points lower in the DXY index following his speech [3][5][20]. 2. **Key Economic Indicators**: Upcoming releases of the August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and core CPI data are critical for shaping Fed expectations. The NFP data is particularly pivotal, with market participants looking for a minimum gain of 50,000 jobs to maintain current rate expectations [1][5][6]. 3. **Asia FX Strategy**: High conviction trades include: - Long EUR/INR with a target of 105.6 by end-September, reflecting concerns over potential US tariffs on India [2][14]. - Short USD/IDR targeting 15,500 by end-September, supported by strong portfolio inflows into Indonesia [15]. - Short CNH against a basket of currencies (EUR, AUD, KRW) targeting a 4% gain by end-September, driven by expectations of RMB underperformance [12][19]. 4. **G10 FX Strategy**: - Short USD/JPY with a target of 142 by end-October, influenced by potential BOJ rate hikes and political developments in Japan [20][27]. - Long EUR/CHF targeting 0.9750 by end-October, with expectations of a ceasefire in Ukraine potentially boosting the Euro [22][27]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: - The market is currently experiencing a mild pickup in inflows into the US, primarily from equity ETFs, but overall flows remain weak compared to previous months [6][19]. - Developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are also highlighted as a significant factor influencing market sentiment and currency valuations [6][7][19]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Inflation and Employment Risks**: Powell noted rising downside risks to employment, which could lead to increased layoffs, while inflation remains a two-way risk [3][5]. 2. **Korean Economic Developments**: The upcoming bilateral summit between the US and South Korea is expected to address currency discussions, which could impact the USD/KRW exchange rate [11][28]. 3. **China's Economic Outlook**: Concerns over China's economic slowdown in H2 2025 are raised, with expectations of reduced domestic demand and ongoing trade tensions with the US [13][19]. 4. **India's Trade Relations**: The potential for additional tariffs on Indian exports is a significant risk factor, with a survey indicating a 47% probability of tariffs being lower than 40% [14][19]. 5. **Indonesia's Fiscal Position**: Indonesia's fiscal concerns appear to have eased, with a target fiscal deficit of 2.48% of GDP for FY26, supporting a positive outlook for the IDR [15][30]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the FX and rates market, as well as the macroeconomic factors influencing these dynamics.

Market Performance - Wall Street experienced a mixed performance last week, with a slump in the middle driven by fears of an AI bubble and doubts over AI investments' substitutability, followed by a strong finish due to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hints at a possible September rate cut [1][2] - On August 22, 2025, Wall Street rallied sharply after Powell suggested interest rates could be lowered soon, indicating a shift in the economic outlook that may warrant a change in monetary policy [2][3] - Traders' expectations for a September rate cut rose significantly, with the probability increasing to 91.5% by Friday afternoon, compared to 70% earlier that day and 85% a week prior, leading to a drop in treasury yields and a rise in stock prices [4] Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.9% to a record high on August 22, 2025, while the S&P 500 rose by 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.9%. Overall, the S&P 500 gained 0.3% last week, the Dow Jones added over 1.5%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.6% [5] ETF Highlights - KraneShares SSE Star Market 50 Index ETF (KSTR) rose by 12.8% last week, focusing on the 50 largest companies on the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board [7] - AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO) increased by 12.5%, benefiting from potential reclassification of marijuana by President Trump [8] - ARK 21Shares Active Ethereum Futures Strategy ETF (ARKZ) gained 11.3%, with Ethereum leading digital asset gains [9] - Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF (CHIQ) rose by 6.4%, driven by steady performance in Chinese e-commerce stocks and significant gains in auto stocks like NIO, which surged by 29% [10] - VanEck ChiNext ETF (CNXT) increased by 5.1%, attracting attention due to a sustained recovery in Chinese stocks and capital inflows [12]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy faced significant volatility with mixed signals, as major indexes like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones increased by 0.28% and 1.60%, while the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.62% [1] - The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the possibility of an interest rate cut as early as September during the Jackson Hole symposium [1] Labor Market Concerns - A slowing labor market is a primary concern for the Federal Reserve, with recent data showing a downward revision of job growth in May and June, and only 73,000 jobs added in July [2] - Despite strong Q2 GDP numbers, labor market and manufacturing data indicate a potential economic slowdown, presenting a dilemma for the Fed between supporting the job market and combating inflation [2] Zacks Research Performance - WisdomTree, Inc. shares increased by 28% since being upgraded to Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) on June 23, outperforming the S&P 500's 8.7% gain [4] - Hafnia Limited shares rose by 14.1% after a Zacks Rank 2 upgrade on June 25, also surpassing the S&P 500's 6.4% increase [5] - A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank 1 stocks returned +20.65% in 2023, compared to +24.83% for the S&P 500 index [6] Focus List and Model Portfolios - The Zacks Focus List portfolio returned +10.91% in 2025 (through July 31) compared to +8.59% for the S&P 500 index [12] - The Top 10 portfolio has delivered a cumulative return of +2,220.4% since 2012, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's +517.8% return [24] Sector-Specific Performance - Johnson & Johnson and The Hershey Company, part of the Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio, returned 17.2% and 16.8% respectively over the past 12 weeks, driven by investor interest in quality dividend stocks amid market volatility [19] - Mettler-Toledo International Inc. and PepsiCo, part of the Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio, saw returns of 18.6% and 15.7% over the past 12 weeks [15]