And Drew, this is a market right now that has now pretty much hovered near record highs for a while. Is there a big catalyst coming up that could break us to even bigger bigger moves going into the third and fourth quarter this year. Hey, good morning, Dom.So, I think it's it's twofold really. I think actually getting a Fed cut and seeing economic data hang in there is how you can really push this market higher. Honestly, in our updated price target for the S&P, we nudged it higher to 6,600 for year end.And ...

Summary of Morgan Stanley US Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US equity market, particularly the S&P 500 and its sector performance, with insights into earnings revisions and macroeconomic factors affecting the market. Core Insights and Arguments - **Bullish Sentiment**: The firm has maintained a bullish outlook due to a V-shaped recovery in earnings per share (EPS) revisions breadth, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment following a period of uncertainty marked by "Liberation Day" [6][14][16]. - **Earnings Recession**: The report highlights that the bear market that began in 2024 reached its bottom in April 2025, coinciding with a recovery in earnings revisions [6][16]. - **Market Pullbacks**: While the current bull market is only four months old, modest pullbacks are expected in Q3 2025 due to the delayed impacts of tariffs and inflation concerns affecting Federal Reserve policies [6][6]. - **Drivers of Growth**: Key factors supporting the bullish outlook include positive operating leverage, AI adoption, dollar weakness, tax savings from the OBBBA, favorable growth comparisons, and pent-up demand across various sectors [6][6]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Sector Recommendations**: - **Overweight**: Financials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Services, Communication Services, Health Care [33][84]. - **Equal Weight**: Materials, Real Estate, Technology, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary Goods [33][84]. - **Underweight**: Staples [33][84]. - **Industrials Sector**: The sector is positioned to benefit from domestic infrastructure investments and bonus depreciation, which is expected to stimulate capital expenditures [92]. - **Financials Sector**: The sector's relative valuation is below historical averages, with expectations for improved earnings revisions and loan growth in 2025/2026 [100][99]. - **Energy Sector**: Energy stocks are trading at low valuations relative to oil prices, indicating potential upside as crude prices recover [101][103]. Earnings and Valuation Metrics - **Earnings Revisions**: The report notes a significant improvement in earnings revisions breadth across sectors, with large caps in the S&P 500 showing a 3% year-to-date change in earnings estimates [48][44]. - **Valuation Trends**: The S&P 500 is trading at a forward P/E of 22.2x, with expectations for EPS growth to continue, although the market is currently experiencing a high valuation relative to historical averages [36][65]. - **Risk Premium**: The equity risk premium remains historically low, suggesting that investors may be underestimating the risks associated with equity investments [53][55]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The report discusses the dispersion of returns and estimates, indicating that stock-specific risks have decreased post-Liberation Day, while return dispersion has returned to median levels [69][72]. - **AI Adoption**: The report emphasizes the role of AI-related stocks in driving market performance, with these stocks reaching new highs [28]. - **Consensus Earnings Estimates**: There is a strong consensus pricing in robust earnings growth into 2026, reflecting optimism about future corporate performance [44][46]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the Morgan Stanley US Equity Strategy conference call, providing insights into market trends, sector performance, and earnings expectations.

Core Insights - Viavi Solutions Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with revenues and net income exceeding expectations, driven by growth in the Network and Service Enablement (NSE) and Optical Security and Performance Products (OSP) segments [1][4][10] - The company faces challenges due to a constrained spending environment influenced by macroeconomic factors [1] Financial Performance - GAAP net income for the quarter was $8 million or 4 cents per share, a significant improvement from a net loss of $21.7 million or 10 cents per share in the same quarter last year [2] - Non-GAAP net income rose to $29.7 million or 13 cents per share, up from $17.1 million or 8 cents per share year-over-year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny [2] - For fiscal 2025, GAAP net income was $34.8 million or 15 cents per share compared to a net loss of $25.8 million or 12 cents per share in fiscal 2024 [3] - Non-GAAP net income for fiscal 2025 was $105.4 million or 47 cents per share, an increase from $73.5 million or 33 cents per share in fiscal 2024 [3] Revenue Breakdown - Quarterly revenues reached $290.5 million, reflecting a 15.3% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand in the NSE and OSP segments [4][10] - NSE segment revenues were $209.1 million, up from $182.2 million, marking a 14.8% growth due to demand for fiber lab and production products [5] - OSP revenues increased to $81.4 million from $69.8 million, primarily due to strength in anti-counterfeiting products [5] - Revenue contributions from different regions included $112.3 million from America, $99.4 million from Asia-Pacific, and $78.8 million from EMEA [6] Margins and Operating Performance - Non-GAAP gross margin for the quarter was 60.1%, up 50 basis points from the prior year [7] - Non-GAAP operating margin improved by 350 basis points year-over-year to 14.4%, with NSE operating margin at 4.7% and OSP operating margin at 39.4% [8][10] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Viavi generated $89.8 million in cash from operating activities, with a free cash flow of $62 million [11] - As of June 30, 2025, the company had $423.6 million in cash and cash equivalents, with long-term debt of $396.1 million [11] Outlook - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, management expects revenues between $290 million and $298 million, with non-GAAP earnings per share projected between 13 cents and 14 cents [12]

Core Insights - Wolverine World Wide, Inc. (WWW) reported strong second-quarter 2025 results, with revenues and earnings exceeding expectations, leading to a 14.8% increase in share price [1][10][17] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings were 35 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 23 cents and significantly up from 15 cents in the prior-year quarter [4][10] - Total revenues reached $474.2 million, reflecting an 11.5% year-over-year increase and exceeding the consensus estimate of $450 million [5][10] - Direct-to-consumer revenues were $111.6 million, down 1.4% year over year, while international revenues increased by 15.7% to $250 million [5][11] Segment Performance - Active Group revenues rose 16.2% year over year to $355.5 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $327.9 million [6] - Work Group revenues increased 2.4% year over year to $107.5 million, beating the consensus estimate of $104 million [6] - Revenues from the Other segment fell 21.7% year over year to $11.2 million, lagging behind the consensus estimate of $14.1 million [6] Brand Performance - Merrell's revenues increased by 10.7% to $157.9 million, while Saucony's revenues surged 41.5% to $144.3 million [7] - Wolverine's revenues declined by 7.5% to $37.1 million, and Sweaty Betty's revenues decreased by 6.1% to $41.3 million [7] Margins and Costs - Adjusted gross profit was $224 million, up 22.3% year over year, with a record gross margin of 47.2%, an increase of 410 basis points [8][10] - Adjusted operating costs rose 15.7% to $180.6 million, with the metric as a percentage of revenues increasing by 290 basis points to 9.2% [8] Future Outlook - For the third quarter, revenues are projected to be between $450 million and $460 million, indicating growth of 2.1-4.4% from the same period last year [14] - Expected gross margin for the third quarter is 47%, with adjusted earnings per share projected to be between 28-32 cents [16][17]

Core Insights - Dutch Bros, Inc. reported second-quarter earnings of 26 cents per share, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of 18 cents, with quarterly revenue of $415.8 million, surpassing the Street estimate of $403.08 million [1][4] Financial Performance - Total revenues grew by 28% to $415.8 million compared to $324.9 million in the same period of 2024 [5] - Company-operated shops revenues increased by 28.9% to $380.5 million compared to $295.3 million in the same period of 2024 [5] - Company-operated shops gross profit was $92.6 million compared to $70 million in the same period of 2024 [5] - Company-operated shops contribution grew by 29.9% to $118.2 million compared to $91.1 million in the same period of 2024 [5] Operational Highlights - Dutch Bros opened 31 new shops, 30 of which were company-operated, across 13 states [5] - Systemwide same shop sales increased by 6.1% and systemwide same shop transactions increased by 3.7% relative to the same period in 2024 [5] Future Outlook - Dutch Bros raised its fiscal 2025 revenue outlook to between $1.59 billion and $1.6 billion, compared to the $1.58 billion analyst estimate [4]

Core Insights - Earnings growth is the primary focus for companies, as profitability is essential for survival and influences share prices significantly [1][3] - Companies like Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), and Mastercard Incorporated (MA) are currently demonstrating strong earnings growth [2][9] Earnings Estimates & Share Price Movements - Stock prices can decline despite earnings growth if they fail to meet market expectations, while prices may rally following an earnings decline [3] - Earnings estimates reflect analysts' views on sales growth, product demand, competitive environment, profit margins, and cost control, serving as a valuable tool for investment decisions [4] Investment Strategy - Investors should focus on stocks with historical earnings growth and increasing quarterly and annual earnings estimates [5] - Screening measures have been established to identify stocks with significant earnings growth and positive estimate revisions, including Zacks Rank and historical EPS growth [6][7] Top Stocks Identified - The screening process narrowed down 7,839 stocks to 20, highlighting the top three: - Microsoft (MSFT) with an expected earnings growth rate of 12.3% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [11] - Mastercard (MA) with an expected earnings growth rate of 11.4% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [12] - Apple (AAPL) with an expected earnings growth rate of 8.2% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [10]

Earnings Season & Market Performance - S&P 500 盈利报告显示，每股收益超出预期，增长优于平均水平 [1] - 销售额增长超过 5%，盈利增长约 85% 表明市场存在积极的运营杠杆 [3] - 大型科技公司盈利增长 27%，净利润率提高近 200 个基点，超出预期 12 个百分点 [4] - 预计明年盈利增长将加速近 9% [7] Market Outlook & Strategy - 短期内市场可能出现波动，但总体前景良好 [2] - 建议关注大型科技公司和金融板块，其他板块需谨慎 [4] - 普遍预期认为，除金融、大型科技和房地产外，大多数行业的盈利表现都低于长期平均水平 [4] - 预计到 2025 年 S&P 500 的价格目标为 6050 点，但目前已超过该目标，达到 6341 点，上限为 6600 点 [5] - 政策不确定性、关税风险和地缘政治风险达到顶峰后，预计明年经济增长将放缓但优于今年，消费将改善但弱于长期平均水平，通胀将朝着正确的方向发展但仍高于美联储目标 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Enbridge is positioned to deliver attractive total returns for investors due to its high dividend yield and abundant growth opportunities, making it a top investment choice [2][12]. Financial Performance - In the second quarter, Enbridge generated CA$4.6 billion (US$3.3 billion) in adjusted EBITDA, a 7% increase year-over-year, driven by acquisitions, higher rates, and growing customer demand [4]. - The company expects to achieve adjusted EBITDA growth between 6% and 7.5% for the current year, marking the 20th consecutive year of meeting its annual financial targets [5]. Growth Drivers - Strong volumes on the Mainline system and favorable exchange rates are contributing to Enbridge's high-end growth outlook [6]. - The acquisition of a 10% interest in the Matterhorn Express Pipeline for CA$300 million (US$218 million) is expected to further enhance growth [6]. Project Backlog - Enbridge's backlog of commercially secured projects has reached CA$32 billion (US$23.2 billion), with projects expected to come online through 2029, providing visibility into future earnings and cash flow growth [8]. - Recent project approvals include a CA$100 million expansion of the Texas Eastern Transmission system and a CA$900 million Clear Fork Solar project [7]. Long-term Projections - The company projects compound annual adjusted EBITDA growth of 7% to 9% from 2023 through 2026, followed by an average annual growth rate of around 5% thereafter [9]. - Enbridge forecasts a 3% compound annual growth rate for distributable cash flow through 2026, increasing to approximately 5% annually thereafter [9]. Dividend Growth - Enbridge has a history of increasing its dividend for 30 consecutive years and expects to deliver annual dividend growth of up to 5% in the foreseeable future [10]. - The company's growth plans support expected annual dividend increases, reinforcing its attractiveness as an investment [10]. Future Investment Opportunities - Enbridge is pursuing about CA$50 billion (US$36.2 billion) in future projects, including oil and gas pipeline expansions and renewable energy developments, supported by a strong balance sheet and excess free cash flow [11].

Core Insights - The earnings season reveals opportunities in lesser-known companies alongside major firms, highlighting the importance of broad market analysis [1] Modine Manufacturing - Modine Manufacturing Co. reported a 13-cent earnings per share beat and revenue exceeding analyst estimates in its recent earnings report for Q1 fiscal 2026 [2] - The company aims for $2 billion in data center revenue by fiscal 2028, with its climate solutions segment generating $1.4 billion in sales for fiscal 2025 [3] - Modine's strategic acquisitions contributed to a 11% year-over-year revenue growth, with a revised full-year fiscal 2026 outlook of 10-15% growth [4] - Modine shares increased by 28% in the last month, with an additional 7% upside potential projected [4] CECO Environmental - CECO Environmental Corp. exceeded analyst expectations, achieving a 35% year-over-year increase in EPS and a 45% rise in EBITDA [5] - The company anticipates $725–775 million in revenue for the full year, with shares up 50.4% in the last month and a potential 9% upside [8] - CECO's sales opportunity pipeline has grown to $5.5 billion, with a backlog of $688 million, reflecting a 274 million new bookings [7] Expro Group - Expro Group Holdings N.V. reported an 8% year-over-year revenue increase, surpassing predictions despite energy sector volatility [9] - The company expects about $1.7 billion in full-year revenue and plans a $40 million share buyback campaign [11] - Expro shares rose nearly 17% in the last month, with over 16% additional upside possible [11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted net income of $4.7 million and adjusted earnings of $0.29 per share for Q2 2025, representing an increase of $400,000 or 0.02 per share compared to the same period in the prior year [5][14] - For the first six months of 2025, adjusted net income was $33.1 million or $2.3 per share, an increase of $1.6 million or 0.07 per share compared to the same period in 2024 [6][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Electric adjusted gross margin for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was $53.3 million, an increase of $1.3 million or 2.5% compared to the same period in 2024, driven by higher distribution rates and customer growth [15] - Gas adjusted gross margin for the same period was $108.1 million, an increase of $15.8 million or approximately 17.1% compared to the same period in 2024, attributed to higher rates, customer growth, and a return to normal winter weather [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added approximately 9,360 new gas customers, including 8,800 from the acquisition of Bangor Natural Gas, compared to the same period in 2024 [16] - Approximately 55% of the company's gas customers are under decoupled rates as of June 30, 2025 [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is optimistic about the ongoing regulatory reviews of the Maine Natural Gas and Aquarion Water transactions, expecting to close these acquisitions by 2025 [7][8] - The company aims to accelerate rate base growth to approximately 10% annually through 2029, supporting earnings growth near the top end of its guidance range [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management reaffirmed a strong financial outlook and long-term guidance for earnings growth, dividend growth, and rate base growth [6][26] - The company sees increasing support for natural gas in New England as a means to reduce energy supply volatility and improve affordability for customers [10][11] Other Important Information - The company has initiated a $50 million at-the-market equity program and issued $32 million in senior unsecured notes for Bangor Natural Gas [23] - The current five-year capital budget totals approximately $1 billion, which is 46% higher than the prior five years, reflecting the investment plan for existing operations [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will the slight negative results in Q3 affect the dividend approach for the third quarter? - Management confirmed that the slight change in quarterly distribution for the second half of the year will not affect the company's approach to 2025 dividends [30][32]