22 August 2025 Bilibili Inc (BILI US) Buy: Near-term game outlook can drive share price volatility A bit of a mixed bag: User engagement momentum was solid in 2Q25, helped by improved recommendation algorithm. DAU hit record high of 109m and time spent per user also rose 6% y-o-y. This is conducive to ad outlook. We expect 2H25 ad outlook to improve, fuelled by AI enhancements, inventory and eCPM uptick. Therefore we lift our ad assumptions in 2025-27e, also on better-than-expected 2Q25 print. Game growth, ...

Key Takeaways Bilibili earned $0.18 per share in Q2, beating estimates and reversing a year-ago loss.Revenues rose 20% Y/Y to RMB 7.34B, driven by games, VAS and advertising.Gross margin improved to 36.5% while R&D costs fell and operating expenses stayed stable.Bilibili (BILI) reported second-quarter 2025 non-GAAP earnings of 18 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.88%. In the year-ago quarter, the company had incurred a loss of 9 cents per share.Revenues increased to $1.02 billion ...

Summary of Bilibili Inc. (BILI) 2Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Bilibili Inc. (BILI) - **Quarter**: 2Q25 - **Revenue**: Rmb7.3 billion, representing a 20% year-over-year increase and inline with expectations [1][2] Key Financial Metrics - **Non-GAAP EPADS**: Rmb1.29, which is +1%/+4% compared to Goldman Sachs estimates and Visible Alpha Consensus Data [1][2] - **Deferred Revenue**: Increased by Rmb391 million quarter-over-quarter, significantly improved from Rmb46 million in the previous quarter [2] - **Daily Active Users (DAU)**: 109 million, up 7.3% year-over-year [2] - **Monthly Active Users (MAU)**: 363 million, up 8% year-over-year [2] - **Mobile Games Revenue**: Increased by 60% year-over-year [2] - **Advertising Revenue**: Increased by 20% year-over-year [2] - **Adjusted Operating Profit**: Rmb573 million, beating Goldman Sachs estimate of Rmb502 million [2] Strategic Insights - **Advertising Outlook**: Focus on the advertising outlook for the second half of 2025 and trends by vertical [3] - **Game Pipeline Updates**: Updates on the game pipeline for 2H25 and 2026, particularly regarding Sanguo: NSLG [3] - **Margin Expansion Potential**: Discussion on potential margin expansion and mid-to-long term targets [3] - **Shareholder Return Plan**: Plans for shareholder returns in 2025 [3] Risks and Challenges - **Valuation Risks**: Concerns regarding relatively rich valuation and potential de-rating risks [8] - **User Growth**: Possible slowdown in user growth and increased competition from short-form video companies [8] - **Game Longevity**: Risks associated with weaker-than-expected game longevity and pipeline [8] Price Target and Valuation - **12-Month Price Target**: $23.60 for BILI, with a current price of $25.31 indicating a downside of 6.7% [9] - **Market Capitalization**: $10.6 billion [9] - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for 2025E at Rmb30.38 billion [9] Conclusion - **Investment Rating**: Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Bilibili Inc. with a focus on growth potential and strategic initiatives in advertising and gaming [9]

Core Insights - Walmart Inc. reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with total revenues of $177.4 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $175.5 billion, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 68 cents missed the estimate of 73 cents [1][3][11] - The company raised its fiscal 2026 net sales and adjusted EPS guidance, now expecting net sales growth of 3.75-4.75% and adjusted EPS in the range of $2.52-$2.62 [1][17] Financial Performance - Total revenues increased by 4.8% year over year, with a constant-currency growth of 5.6%, reflecting strong performance across all business segments [3][11] - Adjusted EPS rose 1.5% from the previous year, but fell short of expectations [3][11] - Operating income decreased by 8.2% year over year to $7.3 billion, impacted by legal and restructuring costs, although adjusted operating income increased by 0.4% [7][11] Segment Performance - Walmart U.S. segment net sales grew 4.8% to $120.9 billion, driven by grocery and health & wellness sales, with e-commerce sales rising 26% [8][9] - Walmart International segment net sales increased by 5.5% to $31.2 billion, with a 10.5% increase on a constant-currency basis, supported by strong performance in China and Flipkart [10][11] - Sam's Club U.S. segment net sales rose 6% to $21.2 billion, with e-commerce sales increasing by 26% [12][13] E-commerce and Digital Growth - Global e-commerce sales surged 25%, attributed to store-fulfilled pickup and delivery services [4][11] - Membership income increased by 15.3% globally, while advertising revenue advanced by 46% [4][11] Operating Metrics - Consolidated gross profit margin expanded by 4 basis points to 24.5%, supported by strong inventory management [5][11] - Operating expenses deleveraged by 64 basis points due to higher self-insured liability claims and technology investments [6][11] Future Outlook - For the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Walmart expects consolidated net sales growth of 3.75-4.75% and operating income growth of 3-6% [16][17] - The company anticipates net interest expenses to increase by $100-$200 million [17]

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Core Insights - The market is currently undervaluing certain growth stocks, particularly MercadoLibre, which has shown impressive earnings growth despite limited recognition among investors [1][2][9] Company Overview - MercadoLibre is a leading e-commerce platform in Latin America, primarily operating in Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, and is often compared to Amazon due to its comprehensive business ecosystem [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of approximately $6.8 billion for the last quarter, reflecting a 34% year-over-year increase, driven by a 21% rise in merchandise sales and a 39% increase in payment transactions [6][11] Financial Performance - Analysts expect MercadoLibre to maintain comparable revenue growth through at least 2027, with earnings projected to rise from $37.69 per share to $95.20 over the next three years [7] - The company's net income for the last quarter was $10.31 per share, falling short of analysts' expectations of $11.93 due to rising costs, particularly from free shipping initiatives [11][20] Market Position and Growth Potential - Latin America is experiencing a digital transformation similar to North America two decades ago, with increasing smartphone penetration and broadband connectivity, which positions MercadoLibre favorably for future growth [14][16] - The e-commerce market in Latin America is projected to grow at a rate of 19% annually through 2027, providing significant opportunities for MercadoLibre to capture market share [18][19] Strategic Decisions - The company's decision to lower the minimum order threshold for free shipping is seen as a long-term investment in customer engagement, despite short-term profit margin pressures [12][21] - The current stock price reflects market skepticism regarding these strategic investments, creating potential opportunities for long-term investors [20][21]

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Industry Focus - Verasity aims to revolutionize advertising and digital media [1]

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Core Viewpoint - Amazon.com Inc. experienced a significant drop of over 10% in its stock price following its Q2 earnings report, which, while showing solid performance, did not meet expectations for future guidance [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - The stock entered a technical correction after a 45% rally since April, with the recent pullback coinciding with a broader market slowdown [1][2] - Despite the initial drop, signs indicate that bearish momentum is waning, suggesting a potential bullish turnaround for Amazon [2][12] - The stock has shown resilience, holding above its post-earnings low, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels [3][4] Group 2: Analyst Sentiment and Forecasts - Analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish, with a 12-month price forecast averaging $262.45, representing a 16.82% upside from the current price of $224.66 [6] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Cowen have reiterated their Buy ratings, contributing to a positive outlook for the stock [6][7] - Price targets from analysts suggest potential upside reaching up to $280, indicating nearly 30% growth from current levels [7] Group 3: Business Fundamentals and Market Conditions - Amazon's key business units, including AWS and advertising, continue to outperform, supported by favorable macro conditions for big tech [8][9] - The recent sell-off appears to be a healthy profit-taking phase rather than a sign of fundamental weakness, as the market has digested the weaker guidance from the earnings report [10] - The overall market sentiment remains risk-on, which typically benefits high-quality stocks like Amazon [10] Group 4: Price Levels and Future Targets - A critical support level for Amazon's stock is identified at $220, which, if maintained, could lead to a target of $235 and potentially $240, with further upside towards $280 [5][11] - The ability to hold above $220 is crucial for the stock's next upward movement, as bears struggle to regain control without new catalysts [12]