Market Trends - China's stock market is rallying despite the slowing economy [1] - Concerns are rising about "irrational exuberance" among policy makers in Beijing [1]

Retail Sales Outlook - Canadian retail sales are projected to decrease following a soft second quarter [1] Economic Factors - Consumption spending is slowing down [1] - Trade uncertainty remains high [1] - Population growth is decelerating [1]

Fears of a slowdown abound in America, with high interest rates and tariff chaos weighing on most of the economy. But they are doing little to reduce the breakneck pace at which firms are building the infrastructure needed for artificial intelligence https://t.co/NCBWptW7iR ...

Monetary Policy - Israel's central bank maintained interest rates unchanged for the 13th consecutive time [1] Economic Considerations - Policymakers are balancing an economic slowdown against ongoing uncertainty from the nearly two-year war in Gaza [1]

Market Outlook & Economic Concerns - Consumption is expected to slow down in the second half of the year [2] - Real wage income may face pressure due to hours worked and hourly earnings [3] - Big tech core businesses are sensitive to economic slowdown, potentially leading to negative operating leverage [3] - Stagflation, though not as severe as in the 1970s, could put the Federal Reserve in a difficult position [4] - Bull market psychology is present but prone to sudden breaks, with several risks in the latter half of the year [7] Inflation & Monetary Policy - Core PCE inflation is projected to be near 3% into the first half of 2026, which is not aligned with the Federal Reserve's goals [3] - The market may need to adjust expectations for rate cuts in 2026 [4] - There is a potential conflict between the Federal Reserve's desire for low inflation and the President's preference for a "red-hot" economy with strong nominal growth [13] S&P 500 & Potential Correction - The S&P 500 could potentially decline to 5500 in a significant economic slowdown, representing a mid-teens correction [9] - A milder correction could see the S&P 500 at 5750, a roughly 10% decrease [9] - Economic profits versus enterprise value to invested capital are close to levels seen in late 1999 before the market downturn [10] Investment Strategy - Investors should consider defensive, value-oriented sectors like beaten-up healthcare, waste companies, and utilities [14] - Caution is advised against being overly bullish, especially with cash needed within the next year [12]

Tourism & Economy - Las Vegas visitor numbers in June decreased by over 11% compared to the previous year, and more than 7% for the entire year [2] - Hotel room occupancy and convention attendance have decreased by tens of thousands [2] - A US tourism market decline of $125 billion is estimated for 2025 [7] - Flights into Las Vegas from Canada are down by more than 18% compared to last year [7] - Tariffs are estimated to cost the average American household $2400 per year [8] Las Vegas' Economic Position - Las Vegas tends to be an early indicator of economic slowdowns for the rest of the US [4] - Hospitality and tourism account for over a quarter of Las Vegas' workforce [5] - Las Vegas has been attempting to diversify its economy through sports and entertainment [5] Gambling Trends - Gambling revenue has not decreased this summer, despite the rise of online sports betting [6]

Economic Slowdown - China's economy experienced a broad slowdown in July [1] - Factory activity and retail sales figures were disappointing [1] - The world's second-largest economy is showing signs of losing traction [1]

Market Overview & Economic Cycle - The market briefly hit a new high for NASDAQ, but lacked strong conviction near the close [1] - The market is considered to be in the middle of a market cycle, not a late-cycle bull market, as credit spreads are not blowing out and bankers are not tightening lending standards [2][4] - The economy is slowing down, which typically leads to policy easing [2] - A slowdown environment favors higher quality mega-cap stocks, which make up a large portion of the broad index [3] Catalysts & Policy - Policy easing and a reacceleration of leading indicators, along with improved sentiment, are needed for market broadening [4] - The current policy mix, including trade and Federal Reserve policies, is contributing to a below-trend environment [5] - The Federal Reserve's policy should be more accommodative given the slowing economy, with the Fed funds rate potentially needing to be 50 to 75 basis points lower [9] Corporate Performance & Reliance on Rate Cuts - Second quarter earnings growth showed 12% year-over-year earnings growth and 6% revenue growth, indicating a strong market [7] - The market is not overly reliant on rate cuts, as much of the capex is coming from free cash flow [12][13] - Smaller capitalization companies are more sensitive to rate cuts [8][13]

Market Trends & Industry Dynamics - Chip sector and specifically Nvidia, along with mega caps, have been driving market growth since April lows, fueled by the AI trade [2] - Macro factors, in addition to trade and tariff policies, influence the tailwind for the tech sector [3] - AI adoption is in early stages but expected to significantly impact productivity, helping companies improve margins and earnings [8] Economic Factors & Potential Risks - Some softness in economic reports, particularly in the labor market, is evident [4] - Volatility may arise in chip stocks due to difficulties with China [2] - The concentration of earnings growth within a handful of stocks in the S&P 500 has been a trend for approximately 15 years, with some suggesting a need for broadening [6][7] Company Performance & Investment - Mega-cap tech companies are generating substantial cash flow and investing heavily in capital expenditures [4] - Capital expenditure reached $95 billion in the second quarter, expected to support economic growth [5] - Earnings season has generally exceeded expectations, although driven by a limited number of stocks [5]

Gold held its longest streak of gains since February, boosted by fears of a US economic slowdown that have increased haven demand, along with traders’ bets on lower interest rates https://t.co/tj6y9yDfrU ...