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NiSource(NI) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript

2025-10-29 16:02

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a third quarter adjusted EPS of $0.19, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.38, reaffirming the upper half of the 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85-$1.89 [8][25] - The company introduced 2026 consolidated EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07, reflecting a projected growth from the 2025 midpoint [28][34] - The adjusted EPS trajectory is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.2% from $1.37 in 2021 to a projected $1.88 in 2025 [32][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company secured approval of the Genco model in Indiana and full ownership of the Templeton Wind asset, reinforcing its regulatory foundation [7][10] - The Genco investments are projected to enhance the value proposition for customers and shareholders, with an investment inventory of approximately $7 billion [22][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is advancing its tracker programs in Ohio and Indiana, with a Pennsylvania rate case expected to conclude by year-end [10][11] - Columbia Gas of Virginia's partnership with Eli Lilly for a $5 billion manufacturing facility is expected to create 650 permanent jobs and 1,800 construction jobs, showcasing economic development [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a 6%-8% annual adjusted EPS growth rate through 2030 and an 8%-9% adjusted EPS CAGR through 2033, aligning financial plans with long-term stakeholder value [7][30] - The Genco strategy is designed to protect existing customers while serving new large load customers with speed and flexibility, enhancing the competitive position [12][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the importance of customer affordability and the proactive approach to economic development, ensuring reliability and sustainability [11][12] - The company is confident in its ability to execute large-scale construction projects and is focused on operational excellence to meet growing customer needs [10][36] Other Important Information - The company has refreshed its five-year capital expenditure plan to $28 billion, which includes $7 billion for data center investments, marking one of the largest investment cycles in its history [26][27] - The partnership with Blackstone Infrastructure Partners will contribute $1.5 billion in equity, reinforcing the capital structure for Genco [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to the quality of the customer behind the agreement? - The customer is a large investment-grade data center customer, and the company has a clear path for executing future negotiations based on this model [39][41] Question: What are the downgrade thresholds as you become more integrated? - The company believes that the risk management provisions in the contract provide adequate protection, and no change in downgrade thresholds is expected [43][44] Question: Can you elaborate on the $0.25 versus the $0.45 range? - The $0.25-$0.45 range reflects contributions from the current customer, with potential upside from additional strategic negotiations [49][50] Question: What is the contribution from NiSource for Genco? - The guidance reflects the total cost of financing, including equity and debt, supporting the full $28 billion of capital expenditures [52][53] Question: Can you discuss the return profile or capital structure assumptions within Genco? - The targeted return for Genco is expected to be greater than NIPSCO's regulated rate of return, with a flexible capital structure to support development [77][79] Question: What is the timing differential of capital investment versus earnings realization? - Most capital expenditures will occur between 2025 and 2030, with earnings realization linked to the completion of construction cycles [81][82]