According to WSJ, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed’s balance sheet reduction (QT) could end in the coming months, citing recent increases in various overnight funding rates that prompted a reassessment of QT’s trajectory. Powell also warned that if Congress eliminates the Interest on Reserves (IOR) mechanism, the Fed could lose effective control over short-term interest rates, posing a threat to market stability. https://t.co/7f4g1fubVn ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted the central bank could be approaching the end of a more than three-year campaign to shrink a portfolio of Treasury securities it acquired to provide stimulus after the 2020 pandemic https://t.co/IBX03CdQK2 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant selloff on Friday due to tariff commentary, impacting the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, but showed signs of recovery over the weekend as optimism returned [2][3] - Key technical levels were breached, with the S&P 500 breaking its 20-day moving average and E-Mini S&P futures hitting the 50-day moving average [2] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is in its 13th day, with the market currently discounting its effects, although concerns about labor market impacts and federal worker payments are rising [8][9] - The CPI report is expected to be released on October 24th, which is crucial for social security adjustments, but there is uncertainty regarding the jobs data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy [12][14] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices dipped below $60 per barrel for the first time since May, influenced by US-China tensions and geopolitical issues, indicating potential economic slowing [13][14] - Despite rising gasoline demand, concerns persist regarding China's reduced oil imports and OPEC's potential quota increases, which could further pressure prices [15][16] - A bounce back in oil prices is anticipated, but the current volume and price action suggest a cautious outlook, with potential supply shocks if favorable monetary policies are enacted [18][19]

Political Commentary - Dave Smith hopes Rep Thomas Massie will challenge JD Vance in 2028 [1] - The aim is to compel candidates to declare their stance on wars, the Federal Reserve, and the national debt [1]

We've got some uh news on one of the potential Treasury candidates. Uh Aean Jarvis got the latest developments. Aean, >> hey there, Melissa.I've just been texting with former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Lindseay. And Larry Lindseay confirms to me over text that he has withdrawn his name to be Federal Reserve Chairman. He was one of the candidates being interviewed by Treasury Secretary Scott Best.And he says he is now no longer a candidate for that position. and he says, "I have a full I have a very full ...

as the government shutdown kind of persists and as Ben was just kind of indicating there feels like tensions are actually only getting kind of worse here what that really does mean for our central bankers for the Fed h how that complicates things for them if they if they don't have the hard data they need Michael they're not getting the government jobs data they're not getting the inflation data what does it mean for them what does it mean for this next meeting >> sure yeah good to be here so there's a lot ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 New York Fed President John Williams calls for more interest rate cuts this year. ...

Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma due to a lack of clear data, relying on publicly available information [2] - Upcoming earnings seasons, starting with Delta and followed by financials, will provide insights into pricing strategies, profit margins, and growth, which are crucial for assessing inflation expectations [2][3] - High consumer inflation expectations are driving inflation, necessitating a decrease for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [4] - The current 2% inflation target, set in 2010, may be outdated due to changes in globalization, tariffs, and immigration [4][5] - Lower long-term interest rates (10, 15, 30-year) are crucial for DCF models, mortgages, corporate borrowing, and reducing the budget deficit [6][7] - The bond market's reaction to Federal Reserve rate cuts depends on the reason for the cuts; cuts driven by inflationary pressure could lead to higher long-term rates, negatively impacting the stock market, dollar, and deficits [8] AI, Nvidia & OpenAI - OpenAI plans to deploy 10 gigawatts of AI data centers using Nvidia systems, requiring approximately $50-60 billion per gigawatt for land, power, shell, computing, and networking [10][11] - OpenAI currently lacks the necessary funds and will need to raise capital through revenue growth, equity, or debt [11][12] - Vendor financing, while common in retail, raises concerns about overvaluation and potential risks if plans don't materialize, suggesting a need for diversified exposure [14][15]

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve (Fed) officials initially agreed on further easing after a quarter-point interest rate cut, though some expressed caution [1] - The Fed's decision to cut rates was influenced by a perceived shift in the balance of risks, with downside risks to employment increasing and inflation risks either diminishing or remaining unchanged [2] - A balanced approach is needed when addressing employment and inflation, focusing on the side of the mandate that is further from the goal [4] - There is an ongoing debate regarding how restrictive the Federal Reserve's policy is, influencing market perceptions [3][9][10] - The consensus leans towards future rate cuts, with the primary question being the extent of these cuts [9][10] Inflation Outlook - Some believe productivity and lower net migration will exert downward pressure on inflation, with employment not being a significant source of inflation [5] - Concerns about inflation stem from tariffs and elevated inflation expectations, with businesses planning to pass on tariff increases to consumers; most expect tariff effects to materialize by the end of next year [6] Economic Factors - Artificial intelligence (AI) is being closely monitored for its significant impact on GDP and investment, as well as its potential to reduce employment [7]

The Latest on the Fed and Gold - Bloomberg Surveillance https://t.co/8h3ZwsXEDr ...