Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and return [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to stocks that have undergone a recent sell-off, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but is open to owning shares in less stable markets, referred to as "banana republics" [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding an additional layer of due diligence [1]

Core Insights - The rise and fall of meme stocks like GameStop and Beyond Meat highlight the risks of emotional investing, emphasizing the need for investors to control their emotions [1][14] - GameStop and AMC, despite their weak business fundamentals, experienced significant stock price rallies driven by investor excitement [8][10] - Beyond Meat's stock has also declined after a brief rally, reflecting poor business performance and declining sales volume [11][13] Company Analysis - GameStop's current market cap is $10 billion, with a stock price of $22.53, and it has a gross margin of 30.06% [2] - Beyond Meat's current stock price is $0.98, with a market cap of $0 billion and a gross margin of 5.98% [6] - Both companies have seen their stock prices significantly decline from their peaks during the meme stock rally, indicating a disconnect between stock prices and underlying business fundamentals [10][11] Industry Trends - The concept of "Mr. Market" illustrates the volatility of investor sentiment, where stock prices can be influenced more by emotions than by actual business value [4][13] - The trend of meme stocks serves as a cautionary tale for investors, reinforcing the importance of fundamental analysis over emotional decision-making [7][14] - The performance of meme stocks like GameStop, AMC, and Beyond Meat suggests that popularity can drive short-term price increases, but long-term value is determined by business fundamentals [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, looking for those that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly when insiders are purchasing shares at lower prices [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who buy shares post-sell-off, adding an additional layer of due diligence [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts, employing multicolor lines for clarity [1] - Trend lines are drawn in multicolor patterns to assist in visualizing market movements and potential price actions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach between equity and derivatives [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to stocks that have undergone a recent sell-off, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but is open to owning shares in less stable markets, referred to as "banana republics" [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off to ensure credibility and alignment with shareholder interests [1]

Safety Analysis - Shallow safety is defined as technical analysis of safety based on technical factors like price volatility [1] - Deep safety involves fundamental analysis of technological, political, and legal environments controlling assets [1]

Core Insights - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is perceived as undervalued at a stock price of $99, with promising growth prospects, particularly in the Data Center segment [1] Investment Strategy - The investment approach combines fundamental analysis with options trading, focusing on various strategies including income-oriented investments, growth at a reasonable price, deep value, and dividend aristocrats [1] - The analyst employs 20-25 options strategies for purposes such as hedging, bullish substitutes, neutral trades, trading volatility, and earnings-related trades [1] Teaching and Community Engagement - The analyst has a passion for teaching and has authored a free local investing newsletter, contributing to community education in investing [1]

Core Insights - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is perceived as undervalued at a stock price of $99, with promising growth prospects primarily driven by its Data Center segment [1] Investment Strategy - The investment approach combines fundamental analysis with options trading, focusing on various strategies including income-oriented investments, growth at a reasonable price, deep value, and dividend aristocrats [1] - The company employs 20-25 options strategies for purposes such as hedging, bullish substitutes, neutral trades, trading volatility, and earnings-related trades [1] Teaching and Community Engagement - The company has a passion for teaching and has previously engaged in both formal and informal educational roles, including authoring a free local investing newsletter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and return [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens for stocks that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding an additional layer of due diligence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, looking for those that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly when insiders are purchasing shares at lower prices [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who buy shares post-sell-off, adding an additional layer of due diligence [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts, employing multicolor lines for clarity [1] - Trend lines are drawn in multicolor patterns to assist in visualizing market movements and potential price actions [1]

Novo Nordisk (NVO) - NVO stock has declined nearly 45% year-to-date, leading to discussions about potential mispricing or undervaluation [1] - The analysis of NVO's valuation is heavily dependent on assumptions regarding earnings trajectory, cash flows, and weighted average cost of capital [1][8] - A bespoke algorithm using a KM-KDE framework suggests that the forward 10-week returns for NVO stock could range between $47.40 and $49, with price clustering likely at $48.35 [10] - The current price structure of NVO is in a 3-7-D formation, indicating three up weeks and seven down weeks, with expected price clustering at $50.50 [11] SoFi Technologies (SOFI) - SOFI shares have increased approximately 64% year-to-date, but recent performance has been poor, with a 7% dip in the last month and a 9% loss in the past week [13] - The forward 10-week median returns for SOFI stock are projected to be between $23 and $26.50, with price clustering expected at $24.80 [14] - The current 3-7-D formation for SOFI indicates potential forward returns between $24.50 and $27.70, with price clustering likely at $26 [15] - A 25/26 bull spread expiring January 16 is suggested, offering a maximum payout of 92.31% if the second-leg strike is triggered [16] Fastenal (FAST) - FAST stock has gained nearly 11% since the beginning of the year, but has seen a decline of over 6% in the last month and nearly 21% since early September [18] - The forward 10-week median returns for FAST stock are expected to range between $39.30 and $41.50, with price clustering likely at approximately $40.75 [19] - The current 3-7-D formation for FAST suggests forward returns between $39 and $44, with price clustering expected at $41.85 [20] - An aggressive trading strategy could involve a 40.00/42.50 bull spread expiring December 19, with a breakeven price of $40.95 [21]