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X @mert | helius.dev
mert | helius.dev· 2025-09-01 11:03
Market Dynamics & Competition - In a highly connected system, speed of spread dominates, making fundamentals less important [1] - Speed is a significant market force in finance, exemplified by high-frequency trading [1] - Increased speed accelerates competition, leading to faster displacement of market leaders [1] - Narratives are more important than fundamentals [2] Strategic Imperatives - Moving extremely fast while maintaining retention is crucial for sustained success [1] - Retention is achieved through a focus on fundamentals [1] - Speed matters more than ever, but it must be grounded in reality [1] - Fundamentals still matter [2]
X @CryptoJack
CryptoJack· 2025-08-30 17:00
Investment Philosophy - Fundamentals are the guiding principle, focusing on essential information rather than distractions [1]
X @mert | helius.dev
mert | helius.dev· 2025-08-29 17:32
RT Jess 🌱 (@thattallguy)the more connected the system, the more dominant the fastest-spreading element becomesnarrative dominates fundamentals not because people are more retarded now, but because narratives are the fastest-spreading virus in an increasingly more connected graph ...
X @mert | helius.dev
mert | helius.dev· 2025-08-29 12:48
IMPORTANT: this does not imply that fundamentals don't matter!I'm just describing the physics of the situationas you click the "Play" button and let time go by, eventually, people start developing antibodies to the narrative, just like a bacterial infection, and shed themselves free from itbut a virus/narrative that is rooted in fundamentals will have higher retention and will endure over timeput differently: pure narrative will spread much faster in the shorter term, but a narrative rooted in fundamentals ...
X @mert | helius.dev
mert | helius.dev· 2025-08-29 12:32
the reason narrative dominates fundamentals is not that people are dumber or suddenly greedierit's physicshumans think in storiesnarratives are easier to understand, and fundamentals require time to analyseif narratives are easier to understand, then they spread fasterif they spread faster, then they infect more peopleif the internet connects more people than ever before, then the rate of infection increases exponentiallyand if enough people are infected, it ends up shaping realityand if crypto increases th ...
X @mert | helius.dev
mert | helius.dev· 2025-08-29 02:39
Market Dynamics & Investment Implications - Narrative is currently more influential than fundamentals due to increased connectivity [1] - Crypto increases the connectivity of the world's value by turning information into value [1] - Narratives spread faster than fundamentals because humans understand stories quickly [1] - Increased connectivity leads to volatility and ecosystems of products like perps, shitcoins, and prediction markets [1] Underlying Cause: Connectivity - Connectivity, driven by advancements like airplanes and the internet, is the underlying reason for the shift [1] - The internet increased the connectivity of the world's information [1] - Crypto increases the connectivity of the world's value [1] Impact on Financial Markets - Stocks are becoming more like memes, and memecoins are traded with trillions in value due to increased connectivity of information and value [1] - Hypergamblification arises from narratives spreading fast, leading to volatility [1]
Palantir Fundamentals On a Different Planet: Thill
Bloomberg Technology· 2025-08-25 20:07
Valuation Concerns - The company's valuation is approximately 70 times revenue, a multiple rarely seen and unsustainable for software companies [1] - While the company's fundamentals are exceptional, the valuation remains a concern, reminiscent of past instances where high multiples for companies like Snowflake proved unsustainable [3][4] - A significant portion (around 40%) of the investor base is retail investors, which can sustain the stock price for a while, but institutional investors have valuation thresholds they cannot exceed [5] Growth and Sustainability - The company's performance is outstanding, with top-line and bottom-line margin combined equaling 90, which is unheard of [2][3] - Deceleration in revenue growth could trigger a multiple contraction, especially given the current high valuation [4] - The CEO's statement about growing revenue ten X with a shrinking employee workforce raises questions about the sustainability of such growth, considering the need for talented personnel to implement the software [7] Market Dynamics and Risks - The market's irrationality, driven by a retail investor base, could persist, making it difficult to predict when the stock's high valuation will correct [9] - The company's unique business model and exceptional execution have defied fundamental reasons to sell the stock, despite the stretched multiple [10][11] - Upside risks include potential monetization of IP and sustained commercial momentum, which could justify the valuation [8]
X @mert | helius.dev
mert | helius.dev· 2025-08-19 19:20
Investment Strategies - The "revenue meta" emphasizes fundamental analysis for investment decisions [1] - The "DAT meta" prioritizes understanding market flows for investment decisions [1] Market Focus - The report highlights the value of both fundamental analysis and market flow analysis in investing [1]
X @Andy
Andy· 2025-08-19 11:23
Market Focus - The report emphasizes a return to fundamentals [1]
X @CryptoJack
CryptoJack· 2025-08-18 10:00
Investment Strategy - The next 100x altcoin requires deep research, strong fundamentals, and impeccable timing for identification [1] - Identifying high-potential altcoins is not based on luck [1] Cryptocurrency Market - The focus is on identifying altcoins with the potential for significant growth [1]