Bitcoin has already tumbled far from its all-time high of $126,000 in October, but history suggests the rout could deepen before momentum shifts, according to analysts at Stifel. In a note, analysts at the 136-year-old financial services firm predicted that Bitcoin could fall as low as $38,000 in the coming months. With Bitcoin recently changing hands at $65,433, per CoinGecko, that would represent a 42% decrease from Thursday’s prices. The analysts cited the extent to which Bitcoin has fallen from its all ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference primarily discusses the Eurozone economy and the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy, particularly in light of recent economic data and geopolitical tensions. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Euro Area Membership Expansion**: Bulgaria is set to join the euro area on January 1, 2026, highlighting the attractiveness of the euro and European integration [2] 2. **Interest Rates**: The ECB has decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged, reaffirming a commitment to stabilize inflation at the 2% target in the medium term [2][11] 3. **Economic Growth**: The Eurozone economy grew by 0.3% in Q4 2025, driven mainly by the services sector, particularly information and communication [4] 4. **Labor Market**: Unemployment decreased to 6.2% in December from 6.3% in November, indicating a resilient labor market despite cooling demand for labor [4] 5. **Inflation Trends**: Inflation fell to 1.7% in January from 2% in December, with energy prices contributing to this decline. Food price inflation increased to 2.7% [6] 6. **Investment Outlook**: Business investment is expected to strengthen, with firms increasingly investing in digital technologies. Government spending on defense and infrastructure is anticipated to bolster domestic demand [5] 7. **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Russia's actions in Ukraine, pose significant risks to the Eurozone economy [7] 8. **Monetary Policy Approach**: The ECB will adopt a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, assessing inflation outlooks and risks on a meeting-by-meeting basis [3][11] 9. **Credit Market Conditions**: Bank lending rates for firms increased slightly to 3.6% in December, with lending to firms growing by 3% year-on-year [10] 10. **Global Trade Environment**: The external environment remains challenging due to higher tariffs and a stronger euro, which could impact demand for Eurozone exports [5] Additional Important Insights 1. **Exchange Rate Monitoring**: The ECB does not target exchange rates but acknowledges their importance for growth and inflation. The euro has appreciated against the dollar, which is being monitored for its potential impact [16][17] 2. **Global Role of the Euro**: The ECB emphasizes the need for the euro to play a stronger global role, which requires a reliable environment and strategic investments [26][27] 3. **AI and Investment**: There is a notable increase in investment related to AI and digital technologies, which is expected to enhance productivity in the Eurozone [54][55] 4. **Future Projections**: The ECB anticipates inflation to stabilize around the 2% target in the medium term, despite current fluctuations in inflation data [34][40] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference, focusing on the Eurozone's economic outlook, monetary policy, and the implications of geopolitical factors.

As the EUR/USD tests the 1.1850–1.2000 resistance zone, all eyes are on today’s ECB meeting. Traders are looking for clarity in a situation defined by cooling eurozone inflation and a surge in Euro strength. Read our previous article Can Lagarde Push the EUR/USD Higher? (Part 1) to get insights into the eurozone inflation and growth dynamics. The EUR/USD Dynamics: Geopolitics, Fed Uncertainty, and the Path to 1.20 The Dollar’s Turbulent January After having gained around 13.50% in 2025, the EUR/USD cu ...

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain a status quo on the repo rate in its policy announcement scheduled for Friday, amid continued global economic uncertainty, pressure on government bond yields and volatility in the domestic currency, according to a report by State Bank of India.The report stated that, despite earlier policy-rate easing, the central bank will hold rates this time, as several macroeconomic and global factors continue to pose challenges. It n ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver and gold prices have sharply declined following a significant market downturn, with silver experiencing its largest daily drop ever and gold its most substantial decline since 2013 [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Spot silver fell as much as 16.6%, briefly recovering above $90 an ounce before the drop [1]. - Spot gold decreased by as much as 3.5% during volatile trading [1]. - As of 11:18 a.m. in Singapore, silver was down 12.7% to $76.9495 an ounce, while spot gold was 2.1% lower at $4,859.20 an ounce [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Sentiment across various asset classes, including equities and metals, has turned negative, indicating fragile market conditions [2]. - The recent volatility is attributed to investors redeeming holdings in exchange-traded products, although structural drivers for precious metals remain intact [5]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The market is reacting to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, with President Trump suggesting that the Fed is likely to lower interest rates, which could benefit precious metals [4]. - Analysts from Standard Chartered expect continued volatility until there is more clarity on monetary policy [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to maintain the policy rate at 5.25%, indicating a pause in rate cuts after previous easing measures [1][3][4]. Monetary Policy Outlook - A Mint poll indicates that nine out of ten economists predict the repo rate will remain unchanged at 5.25%, with only one economist expecting a 25-basis-point cut to 5.00% [1]. - The MPC is anticipated to keep a 'neutral' stance, allowing flexibility in future policy adjustments [2][4]. - The focus is shifting towards liquidity management rather than rate adjustments, as systemic liquidity remains low [2][6]. Liquidity Concerns - As of February 2, liquidity in the banking system was in surplus of ₹1.7 trillion, but pressures persist due to RBI's foreign exchange interventions [7][9]. - Economists suggest that the RBI should prioritize easing liquidity through open market operations (OMOs) and dollar buy-sell swaps [6][7]. - A potential temporary 1% cut in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) may occur if liquidity pressures continue [10][11]. Inflation and Growth Dynamics - Inflation is expected to average around 4% in FY27, aligning with the RBI's target, while growth indicators show improvement [3][4]. - The MPC is likely to wait for the new consumer price index (CPI) series release on February 12 before making significant policy changes [12][13]. - The current CPI inflation forecast for FY26 is expected to remain at 2.0%, with a possible downward adjustment for the January-March quarter [14]. Economic Context - The conclusion of the 125-basis-point easing cycle is attributed to strong domestic growth, with expectations of growth remaining above 7.6% despite global uncertainties [5][14]. - Recent government borrowing programs and the India-US trade deal are not expected to significantly impact the MPC's immediate decisions [4][14].

Market Overview - Wall Street extended losses amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, impacting major indices [1] - The S&P 500 slipped 0.5% to 6,920, while the Nasdaq 100 fell nearly 1.5% to 25,350 [4] - The Russell 2000 declined by 0.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 0.5% [4] Gold and Precious Metals - SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) surged over 6%, surpassing $4,950 per ounce, marking its strongest session since November 2008 [2] - The rebound in gold prices followed a significant sell-off due to concerns over Kevin Warsh's potential appointment as Federal Reserve chair, which could lead to tighter monetary policy [3] - Silver prices rebounded sharply, climbing nearly 9% to $86 after a previous drop of more than 30% [3] Energy Sector - Crude oil prices increased by 1.8% to $63 per barrel following reports of U.S. forces shooting down an Iranian drone near a Navy aircraft carrier [4] - The U.S. government is preparing to issue a general license allowing companies to pump oil in Venezuela, indicating a potential easing of sanctions to revive the country's energy industry [6] Technology Sector - The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (NYSE:IGV) dropped 4.8%, marking a fifth consecutive daily decline [5] - Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) saw a nearly 8% increase after reporting earnings that exceeded expectations and providing positive guidance [5] - Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) rose over 2% to $177 per share, reaching a two-year high [5] Digital Assets - Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) resumed its decline, falling more than 3% to around $75,000 [6]

The dollar is weakening. In simple terms, that means one U.S. dollar buys less, especially when compared to another currency, such as the euro. One year ago, on Feb. 2, 2025, the dollar and the euro were very close to parity. One dollar would buy 0.98 euros. Today, a dollar buys 0.85 euros. It buys 0.73 British pounds and 0.78 Swiss francs. Conversely, one USD buys 155 Japanese yen. The dollar has generally been declining since January 2025, when it closed above 109, and has recently fallen to a four-yea ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Worsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve has sparked discussions about the current monetary policy and its implications for the economy, particularly regarding interest rates and inflation. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's current policy mix is criticized for being misaligned, with a large balance sheet and high interest rates, which are seen as detrimental to economic conditions on Main Street compared to Wall Street [2][3] - There is a call for a regime change at the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the need for credibility and effective monetary policy to address inflation and interest rates [3][8] - The expectation is that once confirmed, Kevin Worsh will implement rate cuts, with Wall Street economists predicting at least two cuts in 2026 [26][27] Group 2: Economic Impact and Housing Market - The mortgage portfolio of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has grown significantly, with Fannie Mae's portfolio exceeding $4.1 trillion, indicating a robust performance in the housing market [15][17] - A $200 billion mortgage bond buy ordered by President Trump is expected to lower interest rates and make housing more affordable, with a noted 40% year-over-year increase in refinancings [20][22] - The current high mortgage rates, around 6.1%, are attributed to the actions of the Federal Reserve, particularly under Jay Powell, and there is a strong belief that new leadership will help address these issues [24][25][33]

Group 1: Leadership and Roles - Frank J. Bisignano has taken on the dual role of commissioner of the Social Security Administration (SSA) and CEO of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), overseeing two of the largest government agencies with significant budgets [1][3] - Bisignano's background includes leadership positions in major financial institutions and fintech companies, such as CEO of Fiserv and First Data, and co-COO of J.P. Morgan Chase [2] Group 2: Agency Operations and Budget - The SSA is the largest retirement system globally, disbursing $1.5 trillion annually to over 70 million beneficiaries, while the IRS collects more than $5 trillion in annual taxes, funding over 90% of federal operations [3] - The combined operating budgets of the SSA and IRS exceed $30 billion, with a workforce of around 150,000, highlighting the need for improved efficiency and customer service [4] Group 3: Modernization Efforts - Bisignano is focusing on modernizing the IRS by implementing a technology-driven approach to tax administration, drawing from his experience in digital transformations [5] - This modernization could lead to faster processing times and more data-driven enforcement, necessitating upgrades in systems, controls, and outreach strategies for companies and advisors [6]