Group 1: UBS Financial Performance - UBS reported a pre-tax profit increase of 47% year-over-year, reaching 2.8 billion [4][5] - Revenue also exceeded analyst expectations, with core results up nearly 20% when excluding one-off items [5] - The investment bank segment saw a 23% increase, indicating strong performance and market share gains [6] Group 2: GSK Financial Performance - GSK delivered strong Q3 results with sales of 3.4 billion pounds, driven by a 16% increase in specialty medicines [22][23] - The company upgraded its 2025 guidance, projecting turnover growth of 6-7%, up from a previous range of 3-5% [23][24] - Core operating profit growth guidance was also raised to 9-11%, previously 6-8% [23][24] Group 3: Market Trends and Federal Reserve - The AI trade is gaining momentum, contributing to record highs in Wall Street markets, particularly driven by Nvidia's recent deals [4][30] - Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with a 99.9% probability priced in [30] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by a lack of economic data due to the government shutdown, raising concerns about the labor market [31][38] Group 4: European Stock Market Integration - There are discussions about the potential for a single European stock exchange to enhance liquidity and capital access [42][43] - Euronext currently holds a significant market capitalization, approximately 6.2-6.5 trillion euros, compared to the London Stock Exchange's 3 trillion [46] - The fragmentation of liquidity in European markets is a concern, with calls for greater consolidation among exchanges [54][55]

I don't know. They're going to be surprises. They're going to cut tomorrow. They're going to announce. I would guess they're going to end quantitative tightening.Those aren't surprises. I think the only possible surprise is I think Jay Powell, I believe, should leave the door open to cutting in December. The markets are pricing in that they're going to cut in December.But he's going to want to leave some optionality just in case they're getting closer to neutral. Inflation is still running 7500 basis points ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, but faces challenges in determining future monetary policy direction due to differing opinions among policymakers and a lack of economic data [2][3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Markets are pricing in a nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate, currently targeted between 4%-4.25% [2]. - There is a divergence of opinion among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and extent of future rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate cuts while others prefer a more cautious approach [4][7]. - Newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran is likely to support a larger cut, while other regional Presidents have shown reluctance to pursue further reductions [6][7]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Concerns over the labor market are a significant factor driving the Fed's inclination to lower rates, despite a lack of recent data [11][15]. - The chief economist at Wilmington Trust anticipates multiple rate cuts in the coming months, potentially bringing the rate down to a neutral range of 2.75% to 3% [12]. - The Fed's focus on job market stability is heightened, even as inflation remains above the 2% target, with the annual inflation rate reported at 3% in September [15]. Group 3: Data Challenges - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a data blackout, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed policy decisions [16]. - The absence of key economic reports, such as the September nonfarm payrolls, adds uncertainty to the Fed's dual mandate of maximizing employment and maintaining price stability [16][17]. - The Fed is expected to communicate uncertainty regarding future policy paths, indicating readiness to adjust rates based on incoming data [17]. Group 4: Balance Sheet Management - The Fed is nearing the end of its quantitative tightening (QT) process, which involves reducing its $6.6 trillion balance sheet primarily composed of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities [18][19]. - Recent statements from Chair Jerome Powell suggest that the Fed may soon signal the conclusion of QT, as financial conditions show signs of tightening [19][20]. - Market commentary is divided on whether the Fed will announce an immediate end to QT or indicate a future cessation date [19].

The U.S. central bank seems almost certain to cut interest rates on Wednesday but it’s unclear whether bankers will end quantitative tightening (QT) and what its impact might be on crypto markets, analysts told Decrypt. QT is when the Federal Reserve reduces the amount of money in the financial system by letting its bond holdings shrink—pulling cash out of circulation to cool the economy and fight inflation. It’s the opposite of quantitative easing (QE), when the Fed pumps money in by buying bonds. Crypt ...

Let's get back to the broader markets and the outlook for the economy after consumer confidence this month did fall to the lowest level since April. Joining us this morning is Medlife Investment Management chief market strategist Drew Mattis. Been watching a lot of this stuff closely.Drew, good to see you again. >> Good to good to be here. So, Conference Board is is kind of instructive and it it does fit a little bit with the narrative being built at Amazon and GM and Paramount uh where headcount is either ...

The economy is also encountering a “conundrum,” with strong consumer spending boosting growth yet the job market faltering somewhat, Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave wrote in a note to clients. Or at least it was back in August, when the most recent official jobs report was released—the shutdown has meant the September report hasn’t arrived.If the Fed has been non-committal, it’s partly because Fed officials are divided . Inflation is higher than the Fed might like , prompting some policymakers to sup ...

We recently talked about how the Fed is going to make us rich. Now, that might be a broad statement. You might even say, "Well, Nick, that's just clickbait." However, all of the factors around what the Fed is doing currently, if we compare it to previous cycles, it has led to prices in this market going absolutely parabolic and melting faces.I don't believe that this time around is different. In fact, I do believe that we are going to see that same exact reaction but on a bigger scale. Let's take a quick lo ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing pressure to halt the reduction of its $6.6 trillion portfolio of securities as money markets signal that quantitative tightening may have reached its limits [1][2] - Over $2 trillion has exited the financial system since the Fed began reducing its portfolio in June 2022, leading to a significant depletion of liquidity [3] - Interest rates among banks have risen, and the Fed's benchmark rate has also increased for the first time in two years, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [4] Group 1 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on October 28-29 is expected to address the future of the Fed's securities portfolio, with indications that the process could end soon [5] - Wall Street strategists warn that the Fed must act quickly to prevent market distortions similar to those experienced in September 2019, when short-term rates surged due to tightening measures [6] - Major banks, including Bank of America and Deutsche Bank, have adjusted their expectations, now anticipating an end to quantitative tightening at the October meeting [7]

The long-awaited altseason is nowhere to be seen as market data reveals a clear rotation of capital back into Bitcoin . While analysts predict an eventual altcoin revival, ETF flows show that institutional and retail investors are focused more on BTC than altcoins. According to the data from CoinMarketCap, the dominance of Bitcoin has soared to 59.1% while the leading cryptocurrency has reclaimed the $111K price level, rebounding from weekly lows of $104K. Bitcoin ETFs Attract Inflows While Ethereum Blee ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 JPMorgan expects the Fed to end quantitative tightening next week. https://t.co/cNkGFfkEzx ...