Core Insights - IonQ's stock experienced a significant decline of nearly 30% after reaching a record high of $84.64 on October 13, primarily due to valuation concerns in high-growth sectors [1] - Despite a third-quarter earnings miss, IonQ reported year-over-year revenue growth following acquisitions and raised its 2025 guidance [1] - The stock was last seen at $56.91, indicating a potential end to the recent growth flush [1] Financial Performance - IonQ's Q3 revenues increased year-over-year due to the completion of acquisitions of Oxford Ionics and Vector Atomic [1] - The company raised its guidance for 2025, signaling optimism about future performance [1] Technical Analysis - The stock was within 0.75 of the 80-day moving average's 20-day average true range, having remained above this average 80% of the time in recent weeks [2] - Historical data shows that after similar signals, the stock was higher one month later 63% of the time, with an average gain of 17.9% [2] - The 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled off from overbought levels, indicating potential for recovery [4] Short Interest and Options Activity - Short interest in IonQ declined by 22.6%, but 14.2% of the stock's total float is still sold short, suggesting potential for a short squeeze [4] - The put/call open interest ratio of 1.51 indicates a higher level of pessimism in the options market compared to the past year [5] Volatility and Options Pricing - Options are currently expensive, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 117%, but a post-earnings volatility crush could make premiums more affordable for traders [6]

Market Performance - Quantum computing stocks experienced significant growth in the last year, surpassing the returns of AI stocks over similar durations [1] - Quantum computing stocks are considered highly speculative and volatile [1] Industry Outlook - The path to commercialization for quantum computing remains uncertain [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - SkyWater reported record Q3 revenues of nearly $151 million, exceeding expectations by more than $9 million [5][24] - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 24.6%, with significant revenue upside flowing directly to gross profit [25] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $25.8 million, well above the expected range of $10-$12 million [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ATS business saw a revenue pull-in of approximately $4 million from Q4 due to program execution timing, with expected Q4 ATS revenues around $50 million [8][22] - Texas wafer services revenue reached nearly $87 million, exceeding expectations by $9 million, primarily due to higher work-in-process wafers post-acquisition [15][24] - Quantum computing-related revenue is expected to exceed 30% growth in fiscal 2025, with four new customer engagements signed since Q2 [6][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The quantum computing market is experiencing significant investment, with several players announcing large funding rounds, validating the commercial potential of the sector [9][10] - The advanced packaging market is projected to reach nearly $80 billion by 2030, driven by demand in automotive, IoT, 5G, AI, and edge computing [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - SkyWater aims to restore domestic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities and secure trusted production, positioning itself as a key player in the U.S. innovation infrastructure [18][19] - The acquisition of FAB25 has strengthened SkyWater's competitive position, expanding its scale and diversifying its customer and technology mix [16][15] - The company is focused on leveraging its technology-as-a-service model to support various quantum architectures and drive growth [12][55] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in exceeding initial revenue and EBITDA expectations for 2026, with a baseline expectation of at least $600 million in revenue and $60 million in adjusted EBITDA [23][40] - The ongoing government budget dynamics are expected to impact A&D-related ATS revenues, but overall growth in quantum and advanced packaging is anticipated [22][50] - Management highlighted the importance of U.S. leadership in quantum computing and the need for domestic manufacturing capabilities [20][21] Other Important Information - The company plans to hold its first Investor and Analyst Day on March 24 in New York City [4] - Total debt at the end of Q3 was $184 million, reflecting borrowings for the FAB25 acquisition and working capital [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the gross margin expectations for Q4? - Management indicated that Q4 non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 17%-20%, with a 200 basis point impact from tools revenue [34][37] Question: What are the dynamics behind the revised revenue guidance for next year? - Management noted that higher-than-expected WIP in the fab and strong performance in Q3 and Q4 contribute to confidence in the $600 million revenue target [40][41] Question: How does SkyWater view the current aerospace and defense environment? - Management stated that while funding dynamics remain uncertain, investments in facilities are geared towards the A&D community, positioning SkyWater well for future growth [50][51]

Market Trends & AI Agentic Commerce - The crypto market is consolidating into "Agentic Commerce" and Robotics, influenced by the upward reprice of public markets like NVIDIA reaching a $5 trillion market cap [1] - Agentic payments infrastructure is gaining traction, with value expected to accrue to infrastructure facilitators or products agents want to buy, such as data, compute, and subscriptions [1] - Decentralized facilitators for agentic transactions are worth monitoring in Q1, as highlighted by x402 protocol surpassing 3 million transactions and $3 million in volume, with Coinbase processing 88% of the transactions [1] Key Projects & Developments - GoKiteAI's token checker is live, rewarding early supporters, with a Binance launchpool and whitepaper published to build payment, ID, and trust infrastructure for AI agents [1] - Bittensor is launching "Net TAO Flow" for emissions, where net inflow of TAO attracts more emissions, with a halving in less than 40 days [1] - qBitTensorLabs' SN48 "Quantum Compute" subnet went live on Bittensor, with its token up 50% since launch [1] - Ch40sChain is gaining traction as a missing link for agent accountability through "proof of agency," offering a security layer for agent interactions [1] - Flowith_ai is emerging as an "OpenAI Atlas rival," an operating system built for agents, indicating traction in agentic browsing systems [1] - AI Dollar ($AID) launched by gaib_ai, is an agentic stablecoin used for compute, API calls, and data access in the AI and robotics era [1] - Crypto.com introduced its Model Context Protocol (MCP), enabling agents to interact with real-world data [1] - Virtuals Protocol is supporting AI coordination and payments on Ethereum, as discussed by Tom Lee and ethermage [1] - ACO, the AI Creative Stack built on Virtuals Protocol and powered by AcolytAI, is set to distribute top-tier videos [1] Infrastructure & Investment - Hive Digital Technologies is investing in AI/HPC campuses, acquiring 32.5 acres in New Brunswick, targeting 25,000+ GPUs [1] - Tria Legion sale went live at a $100 million valuation, integrating across multiple infoFi protocols [2] - Almanak sees $9 million of net inflows in the past 3 days, leading agentic DeFi with 10x the assets under agent compared to the second place [2] Tokenomics & Market Activity - Cookiedotfun's token is now 98% vested for investors, suggesting possible reductions in sell pressure [1] - $AI16Z is finalizing its move to $ELIZAOS with a 1 to 6 token split and full ticker change [2]

RT s4mmy (@S4mmyEth)The broader crypto market may be down, but attention is consolidating into "Agentic Commerce" + RoboticsAs public market reprice upwards [NVIDIA is the first co' to hit a $5T market cap!] it means private valuation benchmarks also re-rate upHere's a rundown since last week:- @GoKiteAI Token checker goes live; rewards to early supporters. Binance launchpool + whitepaper published; the vision is to build the payment, ID & trust infra that currently prevents AI agents from transacting auton ...

RT s4mmy (@S4mmyEth)The broader crypto market may be down, but attention is consolidating into "Agentic Commerce" + RoboticsAs public market reprice upwards [NVIDIA is the first co' to hit a $5T market cap!] it means private valuation benchmarks also re-rate upHere's a rundown since last week:- @GoKiteAI Token checker goes live; rewards to early supporters. Binance launchpool + whitepaper published; the vision is to build the payment, ID & trust infra that currently prevents AI agents from transacting auton ...

RT s4mmy (@S4mmyEth)The broader crypto market may be down, but attention is consolidating into "Agentic Commerce" + RoboticsAs public market reprice upwards [NVIDIA is the first co' to hit a $5T market cap!] it means private valuation benchmarks also re-rate upHere's a rundown since last week:- @GoKiteAI Token checker goes live; rewards to early supporters. Binance launchpool + whitepaper published; the vision is to build the payment, ID & trust infra that currently prevents AI agents from transacting auton ...

Market Trends & AI Agentic Commerce - The crypto market is consolidating into "Agentic Commerce" and Robotics, influenced by the upward reprice of public markets like NVIDIA reaching a $5 trillion market cap [1] - Agentic payments infrastructure is gaining traction, with value expected to accrue to infrastructure facilitators or products agents want to buy, such as data, compute, and subscriptions [1] - Decentralized facilitators for agentic transactions are worth monitoring in Q1, as highlighted by x402 protocol surpassing 3 million transactions and $3 million in volume, with Coinbase processing 88% of the transactions [1] Key Projects & Developments - GoKiteAI's token checker is live, rewarding early supporters, with a Binance launchpool and whitepaper published to build payment, ID, and trust infrastructure for AI agents [1] - Bittensor is launching "Net TAO Flow" for emissions, where net inflow of TAO attracts more emissions, with a halving in less than 40 days [1] - qBitTensorLabs' SN48 "Quantum Compute" subnet went live on Bittensor, with its token up 50% since launch [1] - Ch40sChain is gaining traction as a missing link for agent accountability through "proof of agency," offering a security layer for agent interactions [1] - Flowith_ai is emerging as an "OpenAI Atlas rival," an operating system built for agents, indicating traction in agentic browsing systems [1] - AI Dollar ($AID) launched by gaib_ai, is an agentic stablecoin used for compute, API calls, and data access in the AI and robotics era [1] - Crypto.com introduced its Model Context Protocol (MCP), enabling agents to interact with real-world data [1] - Virtuals Protocol is supporting AI coordination and payments on Ethereum, as discussed by Tom Lee and ethermage [1] - ACO, the AI Creative Stack built on Virtuals Protocol and powered by AcolytAI, is set to distribute top-tier videos [1] Infrastructure & Investment - Hive Digital Technologies is investing in AI/HPC campuses, acquiring 32.5 acres in New Brunswick, targeting 25,000+ GPUs [1] - Tria Legion sale went live at a $100 million valuation, integrating across multiple infoFi protocols [2] - Almanak sees $9 million of net inflows in the past 3 days, leading agentic DeFi with 10x the assets under agent compared to the second place [2] Tokenomics & Market Activity - Cookiedotfun's token is now 98% vested for investors, suggesting possible reductions in sell pressure [1] - $AI16Z is finalizing its move to $ELIZAOS with a 1 to 6 token split and full ticker change [2]

Market Trends & AI Agentic Commerce - The crypto market is consolidating into "Agentic Commerce" and Robotics, influenced by public market repricing, such as NVIDIA reaching a $5 trillion market cap [1] - Agentic payments infrastructure is gaining traction, with focus on facilitating transactions and products agents want to buy, like data, compute, and subscriptions [1] - Decentralized facilitators are being watched in Q1, as they are key to agentic payments [1] - AI coordination and payments are taking root on Ethereum [1] Key Projects & Protocols - GoKiteAI's token checker went live, aiming to build payment, ID, and trust infrastructure for autonomous AI agent transactions [1] - Bittensor is launching "Net TAO Flow" for emissions, with a halving in less than 40 days [1] - x402 protocol surpassed 3 million transactions and $3 million in volume, with Coinbase processing 88% of the transactions [1] - qBitTensorLabs' SN48 "Quantum Compute" subnet went live on Bittensor, with its token up 50% since launch [1] - Ch40sChain is gaining traction as a missing link for agent accountability through "proof of agency" [1] - flowith_ai is dubbed the "OpenAI Atlas rival," an operating system built for agents [1] - gaib_ai launched its "AI Dollar" ($AID) for compute, API calls, and data access in the AI and robotics era [1] - cookiedotfun's token is now 98% vested for investors, potentially reducing sell pressure [1] - MMTFinance reveals Binance listing, with agentic products on SUI gaining traction [2] - $AI16Z is finalizing its move to $ELIZAOS with a 1 to 6 token split and full ticker change [2] Infrastructure & Investment - HIVEDigitalTech buys 32.5 acres in New Brunswick for Tier III+ AI/HPC campuses, targeting 25,000+ GPUs [1] - useTria Legion sale went live at a $100 million valuation [2] - almanak sees $9 million of net inflows in the past 3 days, leading agentic DeFi [2]

Market Trends & AI Agentic Commerce - The crypto market is consolidating into "Agentic Commerce" and Robotics, influenced by the upward reprice of public markets like NVIDIA reaching a $5 trillion market cap [1] - Agentic payments infrastructure is gaining traction, with value expected to accrue to infrastructure facilitators or products agents want to buy, such as data, compute, and subscriptions [1] - Decentralized facilitators for agentic transactions are worth monitoring in Q1, as highlighted by x402 protocol surpassing 3 million transactions and $3 million in volume, with Coinbase processing 88% of the transactions [1] Key Projects & Developments - GoKiteAI's token checker is live, rewarding early supporters, with a Binance launchpool and whitepaper published to build payment, ID, and trust infrastructure for AI agents [1] - Bittensor is launching "Net TAO Flow" for emissions, where net inflow of TAO attracts more emissions, with a halving in less than 40 days [1] - qBitTensorLabs' SN48 "Quantum Compute" subnet went live on Bittensor, with its token up 50% since launch [1] - Ch40sChain is gaining traction as a missing link for agent accountability through "proof of agency," offering a security layer for agent interactions [1] - Flowith_ai is emerging as an "OpenAI Atlas rival," an operating system built for agents, indicating traction in agentic browsing systems [1] - AI Dollar ($AID) launched by gaib_ai, is an agentic stablecoin used for compute, API calls, and data access in the AI and robotics era [1] - Crypto.com introduced its Model Context Protocol (MCP), enabling agents to interact with real-world data [1] - Virtuals Protocol is supporting AI coordination and payments on Ethereum, as discussed by Tom Lee and ethermage [1] - ACO, the AI Creative Stack built on Virtuals Protocol and powered by AcolytAI, is set to distribute top-tier videos [1] Infrastructure & Investment - Hive Digital Technologies is investing in AI/HPC campuses, acquiring 32.5 acres in New Brunswick, targeting 25,000+ GPUs [1] - Tria Legion sale went live at a $100 million valuation, integrating across multiple infoFi protocols [2] - Almanak sees $9 million of net inflows in the past 3 days, leading agentic DeFi with 10x the assets under agent compared to the second place [2] Tokenomics & Market Activity - Cookiedotfun's token is now 98% vested for investors, suggesting possible reductions in sell pressure [1] - $AI16Z is finalizing its move to $ELIZAOS with a 1 to 6 token split and full ticker change [2]