It is time now for money power politics and the reason I'm in DC today. Today the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest rate cut of the year. The central bank only lowered rates by a quarter point this time, but officials also signaled two more cuts are coming this year. That might sound like good news, but all of this hints at something that until now still seemed avoidable. An economic slowdown. And it comes as Trump's Treasury Secretary Scott Besson calls for an independent review of the entire Fe ...

Stay right there because I will and we got a great great guest, a perfect guest actually to answer this because I'm going to say something too that that and and this is one of the reporters I can't remember who followed up with Jerome Pal and said you I'm confused. I was listening to Jerome Pal. I was a little confused.He didn't sound as focused as maybe I would have liked him to be. But doesn't matter what I think. Let's bring in Richard Fischer, former Dallas Federal Reserve president, also a CBC contribu ...

Federal Reserve Policy & Market Reaction - The market had priced in a 25 basis point cut, with expectations inching towards more cuts later in the year and in 2026 [2] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate appears fairly balanced [5] - The stock market and 10-year yield closed flat following the Fed's decision [6] - Rates decreased by approximately 10% in the two months leading up to the decision [8] Investment Strategies & Market Sentiment - Waiting for the Fed's actual rate call to buy stocks is considered too late by hedge funds and major institutions [10][11] - A durable rally typically requires the Fed to cut rates well below neutral levels [12] - The rally observed has largely been in anticipation of the rate cut [13] - Gold has increased by 11% alongside a significant rise in the stock market over the last three months [7] Future Outlook & Dissent - Expectations regarding future policy changes rapidly [9] - As May 2026 approaches, when Powell's term ends, the Fed may become more dovish [9] - Seven individuals called for no cut [8]

Um, I wanted to ask about inflation expectations. Um, you've said the Fed can't take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Um, you mentioned at the short run they've gone up a little bit.I wonder if you can talk a bit a bit about that. Um, and then also at the long run, I'm wondering do you see evidence that the debate over Fed independence and the growing deficit is putting pressure on inflation expectations. So, as you as you said, um, shorter term inflation expectations have tended to resp ...

The Federal Reserve announced a modest and highly anticipated rate cut, reacting to cracks in the US labor market. But that doesn’t mean it’s not worried about inflation. Listen to the Big Take. https://t.co/LIwxw3F08C ...

there there wasn't widespread support at all for for a 50 basis point cut today. You know, I I think we've done um we've done very large rate hikes and very large rate cuts in the last 5 years and you tend to do those at a time when when you feel that policy is out of place and needs to move quickly to a new place. That's not at all what what I feel certainly now.I feel like our policy has been doing the right thing so far this year. I think we were right to wait and see how tariffs and inflation and and th ...

In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up.Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen. At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated. ...

Colobby. Uh, Colobby Smith for the New York Times. Um, should we be viewing today's cut as the committee taking out some insurance against the possibility that the labor market is at risk of weakening.Or is it the committee's view that the dynamics of a downturn are already in place. I guess I'm just, you know, trying to square the shift in the rate forecast in the SEP uh towards more cuts than just um three months ago with the fact that the forecast for unemployment didn't change. Yeah, I think you could t ...

Let's bring in now a former Fed officials take. That is Richard Clar, a former Fed chair and global economic adviser at PIMCO. Richard, kind of a dealer's choice.You got the actual Fed decision everybody expected. You got Myron calling for a half percentage point cut. He's kind of way out there.No desense, the neutral rate. What do you think is the most important thing here. Well, I think there was some risk management here along two dimensions.One, the statement made reference to risk in the labor market. ...

分组1 - The current state of the US economy is characterized by confusion regarding the labor market and the impact of tariffs, leading to a wide dispersion in views among Federal Reserve members [2][3][28] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process reflects a strong emphasis on maintaining independence, as evidenced by the lack of dissent among members regarding rate cuts, which is seen as a positive sign for market stability [4][19][29] - The Phillips curve framework suggests that rising unemployment may keep wage inflation low, allowing the Fed to overlook current inflation rates and potentially cut rates in the future [6][7][34] 分组2 - Small-cap stocks are showing significant movement, with the SML small cap 600 index up 2%, indicating that domestic companies are likely to benefit later in the rate cut cycle [10][11] - The bond market remains relatively stable, with the 10-year yield at 4%, suggesting that mortgage rates may not decrease significantly despite expectations of rate cuts [12][14] - The ongoing capital expenditure (capex) cycle driven by AI infrastructure investment is expected to enhance productivity and profit margins, positively impacting equity markets [22][25][26]