Investment Strategy & Market Outlook - The firm maintains a neutral stance on stocks and bonds, balancing potential bubble risks with strong underlying fundamentals [5] - The portfolio emphasizes diversification, with an overweight position in international value and small-cap stocks [5] - The firm is short duration, indicating reduced sensitivity to interest rate changes, achieved by holding fewer long-term treasuries [5][6] Inflation & Interest Rate Risks - The firm anticipates potential upside risks to inflation, citing factors like wage growth, housing shortages, and commodity price volatility, in addition to tariffs [6] - Deficits could exert upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, contributing to the underweight duration strategy [7] Decision Making & Investment Psychology - Sports psychology highlights the importance of differentiating between luck and skill, especially during periods of speculation [2] - Investors should focus on the quality of their decisions, separating outcomes from the decision-making process [4]

Group 1 - iREIT+HOYA Capital focuses on income-producing asset classes that provide sustainable portfolio income, diversification, and inflation hedging [1] - The current stock market is characterized by a few multi-trillion dollar market cap companies leading the index, such as NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of defensive stocks with a medium- to long-term investment horizon [2]

Market Reaction & Data Trust - Market is likely to react to recent data revisions, but a significant fallout is not immediately apparent [1][2] - The market was surprised due to lower volatility and liquidity during the summer months [2] - The industry continues to trust the data, acknowledging that some data points are estimates that are backfilled later [5] - Every report needs to be scrutinized in the context of the Federal Reserve's policy shift [6] Labor Market & Economic Narrative - The focus remains on the labor market, specifically the absence of increased layoffs [3] - The prevailing narrative is that employers are hoarding labor [4] - The market perceives the labor market as more critical than inflation, a sentiment telegraphed by the Federal Reserve [8] - Fears of the Federal Reserve being behind the curve are expected to escalate [9] Inflation & Federal Reserve Policy - Incremental inflationary pressures are considered less of a concern, with a return to the "transitory" narrative [10] - Political challenges of elevated unemployment are expected to be more concerning to the Federal Reserve [11] - It's possible the Federal Reserve would have acted differently on rate policy with correct data [8] Investment Strategy - Current guidance advises clients to remain overly diversified across risk spectrums [12] - Fixed income acted as a ballast during the equity drawdown, and foreign markets have been supportive [12] - The industry is constantly seeking opportunities to add or reduce risk based on the evolving environment [13]

Concentration Risk & Diversification - The market is seeing flows into equal-weighted S&P 500 funds, potentially driven by concerns about concentration risk with large companies like Nvidia (8% of S&P 500) and Microsoft (close to 7%) in ETFs like SPY and VO [1][2] - Investors are seeking diversification benefits through equally weighted approaches and actively managed ETFs [3] - Actively managed equity ETFs from firms like Toro Price, Capital Group, and Fidelity offer expert management decisions on stock selection, potentially mitigating concentration risk [4] - Diversification can serve as a hedge against concentration risk, protecting against excessive run-ups in individual names [5] - One solution to overconcentration risk is an ETF that equal weights 100 names from a quality-screened universe, matching the sector weights of the S&P 500 [6] - History shows that companies riding high can decline (e.g., Kodak, IBM, GE, Lucent, Cisco), so advisors should consider pruning back gains from Nvidia and Microsoft without incurring taxes [7] Momentum Strategies - The S&P 500 momentum index is up more than 34% this year, reflecting a "risk-on" sentiment [8] - Momentum strategies, like the Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF (SPMO), focus on stocks with the strongest relative strength and have been outperforming the broader S&P 500 [9] - Momentum ETFs contain stocks beyond just technology, including consumer discretionary (Kohl's, American Eagle), financials (JP Morgan), and consumer staples (Walmart, Costco) [10] - It's crucial to understand the specific holdings and construction of momentum ETFs to ensure they align with investment goals [11] - Momentum is a factor that has historically outperformed the broader marketplace [13]

ETF Innovation & Tax Strategy - Atoria Portfolio Advisors is working on a large cap 351 fund, a relatively new concept in the ETF space based on tax code from the 1950s [2] - A 351 fund allows investors, at the ETF's launch, to provide a portfolio of securities meeting diversification guidelines in exchange for the fund, enabling tax-free diversification [3] - This strategy addresses overconcentration issues, particularly in stocks that have increased significantly in value, such as Nvidia which was trading at $30 per share at the start of 2022 [4] Market Popularity & Application - 351 funds are gaining popularity due to significant overconcentration in stocks, especially in the tech sector, with approximately 15 to 20 such funds launched [5][6] - These funds also offer solutions for legacy issues, such as inherited stock or large insider holdings [6] - The strategy is becoming more well-known, with expectations for increased adoption in the future [6]

Market Reaction and Data Trust - The market is likely to react to the surprise in data, potentially leading to back and forth trading sessions [2][3] - The industry continues to trust the data, despite recent revisions and estimations in inflationary reports [5] - Every report needs scrutiny due to the coinciding turn in Fed policy, requiring an overall mosaic approach [6] Fed Policy and Labor Market - The Fed might have acted differently on rate policy with correct data, but full consensus for a cut last week was uncertain [8] - The market perceives the labor market as more important than inflation, a view telegraphed by the Fed [8][9] - Fears of the Fed being behind the curve are expected to escalate into September [9] - Political challenges of elevated unemployment are considered more acute to the Fed historically [11] Investment Strategy - Current guidance advises clients to stay overly diversified, which has driven performance across risk spectrums this year [12] - Fixed income acted as a ballast during the equity drawdown, and some foreign markets have been supportive [12][13] - The industry is constantly looking for opportunities to add or incrementally take down risk depending on the environment [13]

Group 1 - EverQuote has shown impressive growth primarily in the car insurance market and with a few large customers [1] - The property and casualty (P&C) market is cyclical, prompting the company to seek diversification [1] Group 2 - The company emphasizes a data-oriented approach to analyze investment opportunities [1]

Core Insights - EMCOR Group reported record-setting Q2 FY2025 results, with GAAP revenue of $4.30 billion and GAAP diluted EPS of $6.72, both exceeding analyst expectations [1][5] - The company experienced significant year-over-year growth, with revenue increasing by 17.2% and EPS by 28.0% [2][5] - Strong performance was driven by core business execution, growth in project backlog, and positive impacts from recent acquisitions [1][4] Financial Performance - GAAP revenue reached $4.30 billion, surpassing the estimated $4.11 billion, while GAAP EPS was $6.72 compared to the consensus of $5.74 [2][5] - Operating margin improved to 9.6%, up from 9.1% in Q2 2024 [2][5] - Net income rose to $302.2 million, a 22.1% increase from $247.6 million in Q2 2024 [2] Business Overview - EMCOR operates as a leading specialty contractor in the U.S., focusing on mechanical construction, electrical contracting, and industrial maintenance [3] - The company generates 97% of its revenue domestically, allowing it to leverage local market knowledge [3] Strategic Focus - Recent diversification into high-growth sectors such as data centers, healthcare, and sustainable energy is a key strategy for EMCOR [4] - The acquisition of Miller Electric has expanded the company's service offerings and project pipeline [4][6] Project Pipeline - Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) surged to a record $11.91 billion, reflecting a 32.4% year-over-year increase [2][8] - Data center projects are a primary growth driver, with significant expansion and complexity in the project scope [11] Segment Performance - U.S. Electrical Construction and Facilities Services revenue increased by 67.5% year-over-year, driven by the Miller Electric acquisition [6] - Mechanical Construction revenue grew by 6% year-over-year, with a record operating margin of 13.6% [6] - Industrial Services faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 13.3% [6] Cost Management - SG&A expenses rose to $418.6 million, or 9.7% of revenue, attributed to increased staffing and acquisition integration costs [7] - Management expects normalization of this expense ratio as integration costs decrease [7] Future Outlook - EMCOR raised its FY2025 revenue guidance to $16.4 billion–$16.9 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance to $24.50–$25.75 [15] - The company anticipates continued growth supported by a robust project backlog and strong execution [15]

Is China uninvestable until this tariff war or these tariff tensions are fixed. I think for many countries there are be very big risks and the important thing is to pick your size of your exposure. In other words, I my mantra is 15 good uncorrelated return streams.I think you have to have diversification and that China as a small piece should be part of that diversification. All things considered, if it's not a geopolitical and you're not instructed to do otherwise, by and large, I think that some element o ...

Key Lessons from "Unshakeable" by Tony Robbins 📘🔸 Market crashes are inevitable — stay invested.🔸 Emotion is the enemy of wealth — stay rational.🔸 Fees destroy returns — keep it low-cost.🔸 Index funds beat most active funds long-term.🔸 Time > timing — consistency builds wealth.🔸 Diversify across assets & geography.🔸 Compound interest is your greatest ally.🔸 Build a plan that supports freedom, not just riches. ...