If the original motivation for tariffs was to reduce trade deficits, it now looks as if the only way that will happen is through slower economic growth and investment, says @ernietedeschi (via @opinion) https://t.co/ov7Yda6REC ...

Norway’s economy surprises with faster-than-expected growth for a second quarter in a row https://t.co/go4fTEeu1m ...

Inflation & Employment - The Fed minutes from the July meeting indicate a somewhat divided open market committee [1][2] - A majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of the two risks, while several viewed the two risks (inflation vs jobs) as roughly balanced [2] - A couple of participants considered downside risk to employment to be the more salient risk [2] - The Fed expects inflation to increase in the near term, with tariff effects becoming more apparent [4] - A few participants noted that tariff-related factors could lead to stubbornly elevated inflation [5] Economic Outlook - Participants observed that growth of economic activity slowed in the first half of the year, and several expect growth to remain slow for the second half [6] - Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated [3] - Some participants mentioned indicators could suggest a softening in labor demand [3] Key Factors - A decline in immigration is lowering both actual and potential output growth [6] - Increased use of AI in the workplace may lower employment going forward [6] - Evidence suggests that domestic businesses and consumers are predominantly bearing the tariff costs [5]

Big tech firms are building data centres in the belief that artificial intelligence will drive explosive economic growth, and hence demand for computing power, within a matter of years. It is a high-reward, winner-takes-all market https://t.co/VEIFfGP94d ...

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The Fed faces a tug of war between employment/growth and inflation, striving to avoid stagflation [1] - Uncertainty prevails regarding which side (employment/growth vs inflation) poses a greater threat, leading the Fed to maintain current interest rates [2] - The Fed is potentially tilting towards a rate cut, possibly starting in September, influenced by recent softening employment numbers and declining workforce participation [3][4] - A 50 basis point cut is unlikely, as the Fed aims to maintain credibility and independence, and current data doesn't warrant such an aggressive move [6][9] - Employment data is the key indicator the Fed is closely monitoring to determine the timing and extent of potential rate cuts [12][13] Economic Factors & Market Dynamics - Tariffs' impact on inflation is still unfolding, with the value chain potentially absorbing some of the costs [11][12] - The US economy is viewed optimistically in the next 12-18 months, driven by innovation and significant investment in AI [15] - The US private sector and China are the primary forces driving AI development, with both vying for their standards to prevail [16][17] - AI has the potential to transform industries, job markets, and the central bank's reaction function, creating both winners and losers [19][20] - Breakthrough technologies like AI historically create more jobs over time, although the transition period may present employment challenges [21]

Economic Growth Projection - Sweden's government increased its economic growth forecast for the next year [1] - Reduced uncertainty regarding US tariffs is expected to boost household consumption in the coming months [1]

Economic Policy - The Czech Republic should abandon its focus on "fiscal self-flagellation" [1] - The Czech Republic needs to invest in economic growth [1]

The euro-zone economy is likely to see slower growth this quarter, with question marks over global trade remaining despite recent deals with the US reducing uncertainty, ECB President Christine Lagarde said https://t.co/vw8xaUHnJM ...

Indonesia’s central bank surprised markets by cutting its benchmark rate for a second straight month, further shifting monetary policy toward boosting economic growth https://t.co/mHjLjzEaHY ...

Thailand’s central bank would need to see a “significant material deterioration” in its economic growth outlook, or face unexpected shocks, to justify additional rate cuts beyond the three reductions it has made this year https://t.co/yO2wgONFp2 ...