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New: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler will step down from her position on the central bank’s board, the Fed announced Friday https://t.co/DjbxIaoNI2 ...

Federal Reserve

Michelle Caruso-Cabrera: Market would show if jobs data is bogus and it hasn't

CNBC Television· 2025-08-01 19:26

Market & Trade - Concerns arise about the trustworthiness of jobs data, especially with potential political influence [1][2] - Markets are seen as a crucial check on presidential actions, reacting to market movements [5] - Tariffs were perceived to be nearing conclusion, but recent events have introduced uncertainty [4] Economic Statistics & Federal Reserve - US economic statistics are vital for policymaking and maintaining confidence in the financial system [9][10] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is critical for the success and stability of US markets [7][8] - The process of compiling economic data involves multiple offices and steps, making manipulation difficult [11][12]

Peter Mallouk on Trump firing top labor official: 'This is not healthy'

CNBC Television· 2025-08-01 19:04

Market Confidence & Economic Policy - Politicizing the Fed and jobs numbers undermines market confidence [1] - Distrust in government statistics, even if partially justified, is exacerbated by politicization, creating long-term distrust [5] - Markets dislike "chilling effects" caused by perceived arbitrary actions, such as firing someone over disliked economic data [6] - The market reacted negatively to the possibility of a rate cut, indicating intertwined expectations [3] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The bond market shifted from a 30% to over 50% chance of a rate cut, influencing stock market reaction [3] - Lowering rates is typically done to stimulate a weak economy, creating inconsistency when claiming the economy is "absolutely amazing" [7] - The market anticipates a rate cut towards the end of the year, expecting a favorable response [8] Data Reliability & Market Trust - Financial markets and stock markets are fundamentally based on trust [11] - The stock market reacts negatively when job numbers are revised downwards, indicating a general trust in the directional correctness of government data [12] - While government numbers may not be perfect, they are generally directionally correct and useful for market analysis [13][14]

Liesman: No evidence that jobs data is politicized

CNBC Television· 2025-08-01 18:52

Data Integrity & Political Influence - The central argument revolves around the integrity of government data, specifically jobs numbers, and the potential for political manipulation [2][3] - The speaker strongly refutes the idea that the jobs numbers have been politically revised or underreported, stating there's no statistical evidence to support such claims [3] - The speaker expresses concern that the President's actions could undermine the reliability of government data, potentially turning the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) into a politically aligned entity [4][9] - It would require a massive conspiracy within the BLS to successfully politicize the data, highlighting the difficulty of manipulating these numbers [9][10] Data Revision & Accuracy - Jobs numbers are routinely revised due to the availability of more complete data, a standard practice for improving accuracy [2][5] - Revisions occur monthly, then again, and finally annually, reflecting the ongoing refinement of estimates with actual data [5] - The response rate to surveys has decreased since the pandemic, impacting the reliability of initial data [4] Historical Context & Ethical Concerns - The situation is compared to the McCarthy hearings, emphasizing the outrage caused by unfounded accusations of politicization [2][8] - The speaker cannot recall a similar instance of a political firing of a government data official at this level, underscoring the unprecedented nature of the situation [7][8]