Money, power, politics. Tonight, the November jobs report may include a warning sign about the state of the economy. More jobs were added in November than expected.That was largely driven by the healthc care sector, but unemployment rose to 4.6%. Now, that is the highest level since September 2021 when the economy was still coming out of the COVID pandemic. Joining me now to discuss is Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan and Jean Sperling, former director ...

Inflation Overview - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 3.1% year-over-year in November, marking the highest annual inflation since May 2024, up from 3% in September [1][9] - Core inflation is anticipated to remain at 3% year-over-year, consistent with September's figures [1] Impact of Tariffs - Inflation has been steadily increasing since April, primarily due to steep import taxes imposed by the government on nearly all U.S. trading partners, which have led businesses to pass on tariff costs to consumers [2] - Despite some cooling in price increases for categories like rent, overall inflation remains high due to these tariffs [2][9] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Accelerating inflation complicates the Federal Reserve's goal of maintaining a 2% annual inflation rate, which has not been achieved since 2021 [3] - Some Federal Reserve policy committee members advocate for maintaining high interest rates to curb spending and inflation, but the majority favor rate cuts to support the struggling job market [4] Future Inflation Expectations - Many forecasters predict that inflation will begin to cool later in the year as the effects of tariff price hikes dissipate [7] - Wells Fargo Securities anticipates that while goods inflation may rise temporarily due to tariffs, overall inflation will stabilize around 3% through the first half of 2026, with a gradual decline towards 2% as tariff pressures ease and productivity gains are realized [8]

Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer spending remains engaged, with retail sales excluding autos up 41% driven by double-digit growth in e-commerce during Black Friday [2] - Overall spending is running at approximately 4% [3] - Inflation in the holiday basket is around 2%, slightly above last year's deflationary levels [6] Economic Factors and Uncertainty - The unemployment rate climbed to 46% in November, the highest in over four years [1] - Companies stockpiled inventory in advance and shifted supply chains to mitigate price adjustments [8] - Uncertainty around trade changes and the global realignment of trade impacts workforce allocation [11] - Uncertainty surrounding AI investments also influences workforce decisions [12] Labor Market Dynamics - Churn in the workforce is lower, indicating a slowdown in the hiring rate [10] - Companies are cautious in allocating dollars towards the workforce due to uncertainty [11] - There is no increase in firing, which is a positive sign [12]

Supply Chain Diversification - The industry faces a fundamental shift in government policy regarding market operations due to tariffs [1] - Companies are actively diversifying their supply chains to mitigate risks associated with concentrated manufacturing in one region [2][3] - A company's toy and game volume sourced from China decreased from approximately 60-65% to around 50% and aims to reach roughly 30% by 2027 [2] - Diversification requires time to onboard vendors and ensure quality, especially for products like toys [3] Cost Management - Companies are implementing productivity initiatives to offset increased costs resulting from tariffs [1] - Relocating supply chains is not a simple task, but flexibility exists [1][2] Risk Management - Over-reliance on a single geographic location for manufacturing is undesirable, regardless of tariff policies [3]

The U.S. economy stumbled at the end of the year, new surveys showed, as rising prices tied to tariffs reduced customer demand and spurred businesses to further tighten the reins on hiring. ...

Group 1: Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs will be a significant decision for the administration, with implications for national security [1][2] - The cases before the Supreme Court challenge the legality of President Trump's tariffs, questioning the authority granted by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [5][6] - Total duty revenue from tariffs reached $215.2 billion in fiscal year 2025, with an additional $71 billion collected since the start of the new fiscal year on October 1 [8][9] Group 2: Federal Reserve Chair Selection - President Trump is currently interviewing candidates for the Federal Reserve chair position, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh being the top contenders [10][14] - Bessent noted that Trump has been methodical in the interview process, having conducted interviews and planning more in the coming weeks [11][12] - The current Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, is set to complete his term in May 2026, at which point the new chair will assume the role [15]

Core Insights - U.S. retail and restaurant sales remained unchanged in October compared to September, indicating a moderation in consumer spending due to concerns over rising prices and economic uncertainties following a summer spending spree [1][3]. Retail Sales Performance - A significant factor contributing to the stagnant sales was a 1.6% decline in sales at motor vehicle and auto parts dealerships, primarily due to the end of federal subsidies that had previously boosted demand for electric vehicles. Excluding this category, retail sales increased by 0.4% [2]. - The overall flat spending in October was below economists' expectations and followed a revised 0.1% increase in September. Retail sales had previously surged by 0.6% in July and August and 1% in June [3]. Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - The retail sales report suggests that consumers are being selective in their spending, with many households facing high prices for essentials like groceries and rent, compounded by tariffs on imported goods [5]. - The latest job report indicates a deteriorating employment situation, with a net loss of 105,000 jobs in October, which could negatively impact consumer spending and the broader economy [7]. Sector-Specific Sales Trends - Sales in clothing and accessories stores rose by 0.9%, while furniture and home furnishing stores saw a 2.3% increase, likely driven by rising prices due to tariffs. Online retailers experienced a 1.8% sales increase, and department stores reported a 4.9% rise. However, restaurant sales, a key indicator of discretionary spending, fell by 0.4% [6]. Outlook for Holiday Sales - Despite the disappointing retail sales report for October, underlying details suggest potential for improved consumer spending in the fourth quarter, particularly as retailers prepare for the holiday shopping season with extended hours and promotions [4].

All right, welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. As we close on the 6 a. m.hour, a check of a few big stories that we're following this morning. The US says it collected more than $200 billion in tariffs this [music] year, according to new data from Customs and Border Protection. The figure comes as a [music] Supreme Court weighs the legality of those duties.President Trump's filing a $10 billion defamation lawsuit against the BBC. The president [music] is accusing the British broadcaster of producing a false ...

The US high court has recessed for the holidays, signaling a ruling on tariffs no sooner than early January https://t.co/297XLdvqkz ...

India’s economic activity eased in December, a flash survey by HSBC Holdings showed, as President Trump’s 50% tariffs continue to weigh on labor-intensive industries https://t.co/mFMr99FrAt ...