Welcome to Meet the Press Now. I'm Kristen Welker in Washington where any minute now we are expecting to hear from President Trump. For the first time since today's jobs report showed a dramatic slowdown in the labor market and potential warning signs for the president's economic agenda.The August jobs report from the Labor Department showed just 22,000 new jobs created last month, much lower than economists were expecting, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%. Even more problematic, the Labor Depart ...

Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The analysis suggests tariffs are running at an annual rate between $400 billion and $500 billion, potentially improving the deficit, but real GDP growth is considered the key to significantly reducing the deficit as a percentage of GDP [1] - The report anticipates real GDP growth will surprise on the high side of expectations later in the year and into 2026, driven by innovation platforms like robotics, energy storage, AI, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology, all catalyzed by AI [1] - The analysis highlights deregulation, particularly in crypto, AI, and nuclear energy, as a significant factor for economic growth, with tax changes encouraging manufacturing and innovation through accelerated depreciation schedules and full expensing of equipment, R&D, and software [1] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The report indicates that while inflation may seem stuck in the 2% to 3% range, innovation-driven productivity gains could lead to deflation in the coming years [2] - The analysis points out that M2 money supply growth has significantly dropped compared to the COVID boom, and the velocity of money is declining, potentially diffusing inflationary pressures [2] - The yield curve, measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the three-month Treasury yield, indicates tight monetary policy, which is expected to have disinflationary or deflationary effects [3] - True inflation CPI is reported at 19%, even with tariffs factored in, and consumer inflation expectations are expected to decline [3] Market Indicators & Investment Strategy - The analysis notes that manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years, and services are not in great shape, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The report highlights that AI-powered capital spending is increasing, supported by new tax rules, while the trade deficit is being addressed [5] - The analysis observes that pending home sales are deteriorating, and new home inventory is high, potentially leading to price cuts and impacting the CPI [5] - The report suggests that the return on investment in the US is expected to increase due to innovation, tax laws, and deregulation, potentially strengthening the dollar [5] - The analysis notes that corporate profits are healthy, but quality of earnings and harnessing new technologies will be crucial for future growth [5] - The report observes that commodity prices are going nowhere, and gold is breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals, possibly signaling deflationary concerns [5]

Economic Indicators & Market Reaction - August新增就业岗位仅22,000个 [1] - 失业率小幅上升至4.3% [2] - 纽约时报报道，由于高利率和特朗普政府的关税等经济政策，经济自疫情高峰期以来一直在降温 [2] - 股市最初希望美联储降息而上涨，但随后因担心经济衰退而下跌，道琼斯指数下跌超过200点 [2] Policy Impact & Analysis - 报告认为，就业市场和更广泛的经济放缓是政策导致的，受到关税、移民政策和政府削减开支的影响 [3][4] - 特朗普政府的政策被指责为“自残行为”，与此前专家预测的软着陆（核心通胀率接近2%，经济增长率接近2.5%）背道而驰 [10][11] - 关税和移民政策导致经济放缓的同时，通货膨胀也在上升，对普通民众造成双重打击 [14] Job Market Details - 6月份劳动力市场减少了13,000个工作岗位，是自2020年12月以来的首次负增长 [2] - 前两个月的就业数据被下调了21,000个 [2] - 在过去的四个月里，平均每月新增就业岗位为29,000个 [12] - 如果不包括医疗保健等行业，建筑业和制造业等领域实际上已经损失了142,000个工作岗位 [13] Political Context & Credibility - 特朗普政府被指责歪曲经济数据，前劳工统计局局长因公布“真实数据”而被解雇 [2] - 特朗普声称至少一年内不会有“真实数据” [2] - 劳工统计局的数据收集方式没有改变，数据是真实的，但特朗普政府的政策是经济放缓的原因 [2][3]

Well, joining us now is Diane Swank, KPMG chief economist. Diane, the markets are near record highs, but on the labor front, things may be stalling out. How how dire a sign is this.Well, we're still at very low unemployment rates, but what I worry about is under the hood. What we're seeing is a lot of inequality, and the econ economic aggregates are masking that inequality. the under the stress unemployment rate that that includes people working part-time instead of being able to find full-time jobs, those ...

Small businesses challenging President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs told the US Supreme Court they backed his proposal for a fast-track review of the levies in a clash with global economic implications https://t.co/X2kGf4iuyB ...

Economic Indicators & Analysis - Job creation has stalled after four plus years of strong growth, transitioning to a "no hire, no fire" situation [1][2] - Uncertainty surrounding tariffs in May and June contributed to the slowdown in job creation [2] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to cut interest rates due to the softening job market, although inflation data remains a key factor [5] - The economy may be heading towards a period of rising unemployment and rising inflation [27] Labor Market Disparities - Job losses are not uniform across the board, with white men and black women experiencing employment declines since the beginning of the year [7] - Manufacturing has lost jobs since January, contradicting the argument that tariffs would bring manufacturing back to America [8][9] - Government job losses are largely driven by federal government cuts [9] Trade & Tariff Policy - Incompetent and incoherent tariffs are detrimental to the economy, particularly tariffs on inputs like steel and aluminum [12][13] - Steel tariffs implemented in the previous administration led to the loss of approximately 1,000 jobs [10][11] Inflation & Cost of Living - The cost of living remains a primary concern for American families, outweighing the job situation [19] - Over the past five years, food prices have increased by 26%, auto insurance prices by 30-40%, and housing costs by 50% [19][20] - Inflation remains higher than the Fed's target, creating a dilemma between addressing inflation and stimulating the job market [20] Political Implications - The economy matters politically, especially how people feel about their jobs [15] - Frustrations related to high prices and the perceived lack of economic improvement are influencing voters, particularly swing voters who previously supported Biden and then switched back to Trump [24][25]

Pricing Strategy - The company has implemented some price increases, determined through elasticity modeling [1] - New product introductions and innovation provide opportunities for strategic pricing adjustments [1] - Pricing adjustments are not across the board but are strategically implemented where opportunities are identified [1] Tariff Impact - Tariffs are a factor influencing apparel pricing [1] - The company is monitoring the situation and will continue to adjust pricing as needed [1]

Canada introduced a series of measures to aid sectors under pressure from the Trump administration’s sectoral tariffs as the Liberal government tries to reverse economic deterioration https://t.co/Mz7ZlxxFhl ...

Core Points - The Supreme Court's potential ruling on President Trump's tariffs could significantly impact economic forecasts and business planning, particularly if the tariffs are deemed unconstitutional [1][2] - Tariff uncertainty has led to a slowdown in hiring and capital spending across various sectors, with businesses hesitant to commit due to the unpredictable tariff landscape [3] - New tariffs can still be imposed under national security laws, which are not affected by the current ruling, potentially expanding tariffs on industries like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [4] Economic Impact - If the challenged tariffs remain in place, consumer prices could rise by approximately 1%, leading to reduced spending, although this may not trigger a recession [5] - The global economy is undergoing structural changes as businesses adapt to tariff uncertainties, with a shift towards shorter supply chains and diversified sourcing strategies [6][7] - These adjustments may lead to a slight increase in production costs, impacting consumer prices but not significantly harming the overall economy [10] Business Strategies - Companies are increasingly sourcing materials locally or diversifying their supply chains to mitigate risks associated with tariffs [7][9] - The transition to more localized production and diversified sourcing will take time, but it is expected to gradually reshape global production dynamics [11] - The outcome of the Supreme Court decision will have varying effects on specific companies, necessitating close monitoring by affected business leaders [12]

Economic Indicators - The jobs data is anticipated to influence Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts, with a 97% chance of a cut in September according to the FedWatch tool [3][4] - Inflation remains persistent, with PCE showing an annual growth of 2.9%, and CPI expected to reflect similar trends [5][6] Precious Metals Market - Gold prices are reaching record highs, while silver is also experiencing significant gains, indicating a strong interest in precious metals as an inflation hedge [6][7] Retail Sector Performance - Macy's reported a 21% increase in stock price post-earnings, reflecting signs of recovery despite facing tariff headwinds [11] - Dollar Tree's stock fell by 9% after earnings due to significant tariff impacts affecting low-end consumer spending [13][14] - American Eagle's stock surged by 26% following a successful marketing campaign, showcasing the potential for political spotlight to drive sales [15][16] Technology Sector Insights - Google’s stock rose by 9% after avoiding a forced sale of its Chrome browser amid antitrust scrutiny, indicating a favorable regulatory environment for big tech [20][22] - Salesforce's stock declined by 7% despite beating earnings expectations, raising questions about the effectiveness of AI integration into its business model [24][26] - Alibaba reported a 26% growth in its cloud business driven by AI, contrasting with Salesforce's struggles, highlighting the varying impacts of AI across companies [26] Upcoming Earnings and Market Trends - Adobe's upcoming earnings report is expected to reveal how effectively its AI investments are translating into revenue, similar to the scrutiny faced by Salesforce [27][28] - Broadcom's results will provide insights into the tech infrastructure supporting AI development, relevant for companies like Salesforce and Adobe [28][29]