8 June 2025 | 5:43PM HKT China FX/Rates Monitor: CNY Appreciation Bias Post Trade De-escalation (Chen/Suwanapruti) Our monitor tracks the latest developments and identifies key indicators for China FX and rates, including valuations/policy stance, technicals, flows, and fundamentals. Below we summarize our key takeaways on the China FX and rates markets. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Danny ...

雷鸣于2023年年中作为创始合伙人创立追创创投，开始追觅生态基金的组建。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜ Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 北京时间2025年6月5日晚间，Circle Internet Group（以下简称"Circle"）正式以"CRCL"为股 票代码在纽交所挂牌上市，成为「全球稳定币第一股」。 两个交易日过后，Circle的股价已较发行价上涨247.42%，市值约240亿美元。事实上，在本次IPO 发行中，Circle已先后多次上调发行股数和发行价格，最终筹集11亿美元，并获得超过25倍超额认 购。 在 这一2025年迄今为止话题度最高的大型IPO背后，不乏数家中国背景的投资者。其中，时任华兴 新经济基金投资人的雷鸣于2018年投资Circle 。伴随Circle上市，这些早期投资者也收获了高倍的 投资收益。 雷鸣表示，当初他对Circle的两个核心投资判断是：其一、区块链技术未来能创造非常大的商业价值 和社会价值；其二、投资就是要投本质，金融的本质是牌照能力，而Circle恰恰是当时拥有牌照最全 的一家。 此外，雷鸣指出，区块链是2017-2018年的一个非常大 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha June 3, 2025 02:03 PM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific M Update Weekly Database Tracker #22 Key Takeaways Cara.Zhu@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7117 China Property Asia Pacific Industry View In-Line Weekly primary unit sales in 50 cities were -17% YoY (vs. +5% YoY last week) for the week ended June 1: Tier 1 city sales were +4% YoY (vs. +29% YoY last week). Tier 2 city sales were -25% YoY (vs. +4% YoY last week). Tier 3 city sales were +2% YoY (vs. -10% YoY last week). Weekly ...

V i e w p o i n t | 05 Jun 2025 20:45:46 ET │ 10 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (5): Shipment Resilience Extends to June CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Jun 4th . Some data seems to start to show tariff impact, such as Korea exports, US ISM Mfg PMI and potentially China's Caixin PMI. China's shipping activities, however, still held up. Contraction in containership departure for the US narrowed last week, and overall cargo throughput stayed steady. We fo ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered. Core Insights - The impact of China's rare-earth export ban is significant, affecting key Asian automakers like Suzuki and Ford, with production halts reported [1][5] - The sentiment around BYD has improved, with investors noting a bottoming out in sentiment, while concerns remain for Geely and Great Wall Motor [1][12] - The Indian defense sector is poised for growth, with expectations to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by FY30, indicating a potential doubling of defense spending [1][11] - The EU building materials sector is showing signs of improvement, driven by positive factors such as increased defense spending and a potential recovery in residential construction [1][13] Detailed Highlights - **Japan Auto**: Suzuki halted production of its Swift model due to the rare-earth export ban but resumed operations shortly after, indicating that the situation may not be as severe as initially thought [1][5] - **China Auto Feedback**: Pricing competition has moderated, and BYD's sales volume has responded positively without significant price cuts, improving investor sentiment [1][10][12] - **Indian Defense**: The Ministry of Defense's commentary suggests that conditions are aligning for a significant increase in defense spending, attracting investor interest in various defense companies [1][11] - **EU Building Materials**: The sector is experiencing a strong move, with cement shares leading the way, supported by positive results from companies and a firming sentiment for construction recovery [1][13] Sector Key Newsflow - US auto suppliers are urging immediate action to address China's rare earth restrictions [1][13] - Suzuki's production of the Swift is set to return to normal from June 16 [1][13] - Chinese officials have summoned EV executives to discuss self-regulation in the ongoing price war [1][13] - BYD plans to nearly triple its dealer network in South Africa, reflecting its growth strategy [1][13] - China's NEV retail sales increased by 30% year-on-year in May, indicating strong market demand [1][13]

Playing the long game Key features of the outlook We forecast GDP growth of 4.6% and 4.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, assuming no change in the US tariff levels (up an additional 30% compared to the start of 2025) and modest stimulus. Over the coming months, export frontloading and the announced policy measures should remain supportive, but some weakening is bound to happen further ahead, when the exemption period on the reciprocal tariffs comes to an end, warranting more policy support. Given the tari ...

We attended Singapore International Ferrous Week from 26-30 of May, meeting with industry players, including iron ore miners, steel producers and investors throughout the week. We highlight our key takeaways for the iron ore price outlook, supply and demand. 4 June 2025 | 2:45PM BST Metals Comment: Singapore International Ferrous Week Feedback: Hard To Escape The Bearish Thesis Singapore International Ferrous Week Feedback: Hard To Escape The Bearish Thesis We attended Singapore International Ferrous Week f ...

4 June 2025 | 11:19PM HKT Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Chelsea Song +852-2978-0106 | chelsea.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. China Matters No Rotation to Domestic Demand Yet (Shan) Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs. ...

Investment Rating - The report provides an "Overweight" (OW) rating for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the market [9][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights opportunities arising from the trade war and China's stimulus measures in the near term [5]. - Medium-term growth is expected to be driven by the "China+1" strategy, post-war reconstruction, and advancements in robotics [6]. - Long-term stability is supported by structural growth drivers within the industry [7]. Company Summaries - Shenzhen Inovance is positioned to benefit from the industrial automation (IA) cycle inflection [9]. - Weichai Power is anticipated to experience growth as China's heavy-duty truck (HDT) market enters an upcycle [9]. - Evergreen Marine is expected to gain from supply chain adjustments [9]. - SANY and XCMG are set to benefit from increasing demand for construction machinery [9]. - Sanhua and Leader Drive are identified as key players in the humanoid robot sector [9]. - C SF Holdings and ICT are likely to benefit from further supply chain adjustments [9]. - Weichai's market share in large-bore engines is projected to grow significantly [9]. - TTI is sustaining growth through innovation and a shift towards cordless tools [9]. - CRRC is benefiting from high-speed train demand and the phase-out of diesel engines [9]. - ST Engineering is expanding internationally amid geopolitical tensions [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The report indicates a potential surge in freight volumes from China to the US, driven by expected increases in imports at the Port of Los Angeles, with vessel traffic projected to rise by 6% and TEUs by 39% in the coming weeks [3][4][5] - Trade uncertainty remains high due to recent court involvement over tariffs, which could impact inflation, consumer spending, and global freight flows [2][7] - The report outlines three potential scenarios for trade dynamics in 2025, with a focus on the implications of a 90-day tariff pause with China [10][11][12] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Freight Trends - The report tracks high-frequency data to assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains, noting that while there has been a recent decline in freight volumes from China, a rebound is anticipated [5][6][14] - Container rates have shown volatility, with a recent uptick followed by flattening, indicating potential shifts in demand and supply dynamics [15][38] Trade Volume Analysis - Year-over-year (YoY) comparisons show a significant drop in laden container vessels from China to the US, with a decrease of 37% YoY and TEUs down by 34% YoY [22][14] - The report estimates that April saw an increase of approximately $4 billion in imports compared to the previous year, while May experienced a decline of about $3 billion [4][61] Future Scenarios and Economic Implications - The report presents two broad scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge in activity or a continued slowdown due to uncertainty, impacting inventory levels and freight demand [7][11] - Potential outcomes include a strong second half of 2025 if consumer demand rebounds or a bear case scenario if economic conditions worsen [12][15] Company-Specific Insights - Companies such as FedEx, UPS, and freight forwarders like Expeditors International and C.H. Robinson are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of increased freight activity during periods of volatility [15][85] - The report notes that intermodal traffic has declined by 5% YoY, reflecting ongoing challenges in the transportation sector [47][15]