Let's talk about all of it now with John Lavalo. He's home builders and building product analysts at UBS. Appreciate you being here, John.And a much different and much harder story for the builders than a few years ago when they were trading. Let's not forget at like four times earnings. So, what happens now.Did the changing shifting dynamics in the market to a buyer market help them on the margin at all or they just is it just going to be tough into next year. >> No, look, actually, we think 2026 is going ...

Core Viewpoint - The housing market is expected to improve in 2026, with strong underlying factors in place despite current challenges [2][8]. Market Dynamics - Inventory levels have been adjusted across most markets, and consumer intent to buy remains strong, with mortgage rates down approximately 100 basis points since January [3][5]. - Builder inflation on input costs is moderating, and current trading is at about nine times forward earnings, indicating a favorable setup for builders [4]. Home Price Trends - Home prices have appreciated by 56% since 2019, contributing to a significant amount of home equity, estimated at $35 trillion [4][5]. - Despite recent pullbacks, there is no expectation for prices to continue falling due to tight inventory and strong underlying demand [5]. Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence is currently low, described as being at a global financial trough, which is impacting the market [7]. - Improvement in consumer confidence is necessary for the housing market to stabilize and grow, with signs of stabilization beginning to emerge [8]. Builder Strategies - Builders are adapting by buying down mortgage rates, constructing smaller homes, and optimizing build processes, which gives them an advantage over the existing home market [10][11]. - The ability to efficiently manage costs and build processes will support builders' performance in the upcoming year [11]. Investment Outlook - The current stock valuations reflect significant pessimism, suggesting that there may be an opportunity for growth when consumer confidence begins to recover [12][13]. - A bottoming out of consumer confidence is anticipated to trigger a rally in builder stocks, indicating a potential investment opportunity [11][13].

Black Friday discounts failed to prevent a slowdown in UK retail sales as the Labour government’s budget damaged consumer confidence, according to a report by the British Retail Consortium https://t.co/oKtDqkUPb6 ...

Core Insights - The Las Vegas real estate market is currently experiencing a balanced environment, contrasting with the extremes of the past few years, allowing opportunities for both buyers and sellers [2][3] Market Dynamics - Sellers are achieving good results by understanding current market dynamics, but pricing must reflect the current landscape rather than previous highs [2] - Buyers are becoming more discerning with alternatives available, leading to a more competitive inventory cycle [2] Buyer and Seller Behavior - Conversations between agents and clients have shifted towards less anxiety and more thoughtful decision-making, with buyers asking better questions and sellers being more data-driven [3] - Negotiations are becoming less frantic and more effective, indicating a healthier market environment [3] Economic Influences - The report highlights the impact of mortgage rate volatility on buyer activity and home affordability, noting a weaker-than-expected level of activity in October due to rising rates [3][4] - Inflation, tariffs, layoffs, and economic instability have affected consumer confidence, exacerbated by a federal government shutdown impacting government-backed mortgages [4] Local Market Stability - Strong employment figures in the local job market have contributed to real estate market stability, while uncertainty in the tourism industry poses potential risks [4] - In-state migration continues to drive housing demand, supporting ongoing growth in the market [4] Future Outlook - The current market is finding a sustainable rhythm with slower sales, steadier prices, and increased listing inventory, indicating a period of relative stability [5] - Buyers are advised to secure financing upfront, while sellers should focus on presentation and smart pricing strategies to succeed in the upcoming months [5]

Economic Sentiment and Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence is showing slight improvement, with inflation expectations decreasing compared to previous readings [1][2] - Although overall sentiment has increased, it remains at historically low levels [2] - Consumers are feeling some relief regarding inflation but are still cautious about the economy [3] Spending Behavior and Economic Conditions - Historically, consumer confidence correlates with spending; when confidence is low, spending tends to decrease [5] - In 2022, despite low confidence, consumers were willing to spend due to strong labor markets and income stability [5] - Currently, consumers report weakening labor markets, leading to less willingness to spend, particularly among middle and lower-income groups [6][8] Income Distribution and Spending Patterns - High-income consumers with stable incomes and significant stock portfolios are more likely to continue spending [8] - Consumers with smaller portfolios or job insecurity are more cautious and focused on value when making spending decisions [8] - The distribution of income and wealth is highly skewed, with high-income individuals contributing significantly to aggregate spending [9][10]

YOU CAN GET MICHAEL'S WORK ON THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE CONFIDENCE NUMBERS. JOANNA HSU JOINS US FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN WHERE SHE IS THE DIRECTOR OF SURVEYS OF CONSUMERS.THIS ONE LOOKS PARTICULARLY GOOD, JOANNA. INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE LOWER THAN THE SURVEY AND LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS READINGS. JOANNA: WE ARE SEEING SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM NOVEMBER.I THINK THE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS NUMBERS ARE DEFINITELY MOVING IN A FAVORABLE DIRECTION BOTH IN THE SHORT RUN AND LONG-RUN. THAT IS ...

Australia’s household spending handily surpassed expectations in October, suggesting consumers are gaining confidence following interest-rate cuts earlier this year https://t.co/TnqOoSFrXA ...

Market Intervention - Morgan Stanley suggests China could implement mortgage subsidies to stimulate its housing market [1] - The estimated annual expenditure for these subsidies is approximately 400 billion yuan [1] Economic Impact - The primary goal of the subsidies is to boost consumer confidence, which has been negatively impacted [1]

Economic Overview - Canada's GDP increased in September, allowing the country to avoid a technical recession despite ongoing trade war and tariff uncertainties [2][8] - The unemployment rate fell slightly in October, marking the first drop in three months, but remains around 7%, the highest in four years [3][8] Consumer Behavior - Average household spending per capita fell by 0.2% from July to September, with 41% of Canadians planning to spend less during the holidays compared to last year [5][10] - Consumer confidence has been at historic lows throughout the year, reflecting concerns about the overall economy and job market [2][8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index for October showed an average price increase of 2.2% compared to the same period in 2022, with food prices rising by 3.4% [7][8] - Despite some positive economic indicators, consumers are facing higher prices than the previous year, leading to increased precautionary savings [9][10] Economic Sentiment - Experts suggest that while macroeconomic indicators may show growth, individual experiences can vary significantly, with many feeling economically strained [6][11] - The Bank of Canada noted the cautious consumer sentiment, attributing it to concerns about job security and economic stability [10][11]

Core Insights - German consumers' willingness to buy is on the rise, indicating a positive shift in household sentiment [1] Group 1 - Household sentiment in Germany has increased for the second consecutive month, suggesting improving consumer confidence [1]