AI Impact on Employment - AI 对就业的影响难以在官方数据中直接体现 [1] - 采用 AI 的公司招聘情况本应与未采用的公司持平，但实际情况并非如此 [1] - 一项针对 300,000 家公司的研究表明，招聘正在减弱 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a significant internal debate regarding the current economic conditions and the associated risks, particularly as it approaches its next policy meeting amid a government shutdown that has halted data releases [1]. Group 1: Policy Debate and Economic Conditions - Fed Governor Lisa Cook highlighted the conflicting risks to employment and inflation, suggesting that the upcoming December meeting remains a possibility for a rate cut, but it is not guaranteed [2]. - Cook expressed concerns that maintaining high rates could negatively impact the labor market, although it remains solid for now, while also warning that excessive rate cuts could destabilize inflation expectations [3]. - The dual mandate of the Fed is under tension, prompting Cook to closely monitor labor market and inflation data [3]. Group 2: Internal Division Among Fed Officials - A notable split among Fed officials was evident from a recent 10-2 policy vote to lower the benchmark interest rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range, marking only the third instance of dissenting opinions for both tighter and looser monetary policy since 1990 [4]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the deep divide in opinions regarding future actions, indicating that another rate cut at the December meeting is not assured [5]. - Fed Governor Stephen Miran reiterated his support for significant interest rate cuts, arguing that strong stock and corporate credit markets do not imply that monetary policy is overly accommodative [5].

We are coming up on this mark. As you look back over the past year, what has been the biggest surprise to you as someone actively involved in these markets. >> Good morning, Brian.Thank you for having me on. Uh to me, it's the market resiliency. I mean, it truly is the Teflon market.you if someone had told us a year ago that the Trump administration was actually going to go through with all of these reciprocal tariffs with threatening 100 plus percent tariffs on China all of these different trade metrics an ...

All right, we got some breaking news from Washington Fed Governor Lisa Cook who is speaking in DC. Steve Leeman has those headlines. Steve.>> Uh, thanks Brian. The Olive for Fed policy continues to be somewhat confusing with Fed officials offering different forecasts from each other and even some officials taking both sides of the argument. Lisa Cook speaking in Washington said she supported the decision to cut rates last week.Uh, but says downside risks to employment are greater than upside risk to inflati ...

Manufacturing Sector Overview - The ISM manufacturing index for October reported a reading of 48.7%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, consistent with the August figure and lower than previous months [1][2] - This marks the sixth consecutive month below the neutral level of 50, reflecting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing industry [3] Price Trends - The prices paid index decreased to 58.0%, down from 61.9%, representing the second lowest reading of the year, indicating easing inflationary pressures [2] - The January figure was notably higher at 54.9%, suggesting a trend of declining prices in the manufacturing sector [2] New Orders and Employment - New orders improved slightly to 49.4%, up from 48.9%, but still below the neutral mark, indicating mixed signals in demand [2][3] - Employment figures showed a slight increase to 46.0%, up from 45.3%, marking the best reading since May, although still indicating contraction [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bond ETFs experienced a decline following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's indication that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, which contradicted market expectations for a certain move [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% [1]. - Powell emphasized that a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, highlighting differing views within the committee [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, futures markets reduced expectations for a December rate cut, with the probability dropping to about 66% from around 90% [2]. - Yields surged in response, with the 2-year Treasury yield increasing by 11 basis points to 3.6%, the 10-year yield rising by 9 basis points to 4.07%, and the 30-year yield climbing by 7 basis points to 4.6% [3]. Group 3: Bond ETFs Performance - The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell by 1%, while the iShares 7–10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) decreased by 0.65% [3]. - The 10-year yield has remained near 4%, reflecting a bounce off this key level as investors processed Powell's remarks [3]. Group 4: Economic Considerations - Powell noted ongoing risks related to inflation and employment, mentioning the government shutdown as a challenge to the Fed's data-driven approach [4]. - Despite Powell's cautious stance, markets anticipate approximately three additional rate cuts between now and mid-2026, with future moves dependent on economic data [5].

In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.Our framework calls for us to take a balanced approach in promoting both sides of our dual mandate. With downside risks to employment having increased in recent months, the balance of risks has shifted. Accordingly, we judged it appropriate at this meeting to take another st ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate includes managing inflation and ensuring employment, which creates tension between job growth and price stability [2][10] - The Kansas City Fed has a historical tendency to adopt a hawkish stance, indicating a cautious approach towards rate cuts despite pressures from political figures [4][5] - Small and medium-sized businesses are crucial for job creation in the U.S., accounting for 80% of jobs and holding about 50% of employment, suggesting that their performance is more indicative of economic health than larger companies [8][9] Group 2 - Current economic indicators show a mixed picture, with some data suggesting a slowdown while others indicate stability, highlighting the complexity of the economic landscape [7][8] - The 10-year Treasury yield remains steady, which is critical for businesses, as they rely more on long-term rates than on the Federal Funds rate [7] - There is skepticism regarding the likelihood of further rate cuts unless there is a significant economic downturn, with the Fed expected to maintain its principles against political pressures [6][10]

When it comes to the tilt of jobs versus the Fed's mandate on inflation and price stability, which do you think it should tilt more towards given what we've seen so far. >> Well, look, one of the very rare things would be to cut rates when you have 3% inflation or slightly under 3% wherever the number is. We always want to keep uh 1% real rate.So, this may be as far as you can push it right now. And maybe that's what the Kansas City Fed uh is concerned about. We'll have to see when we get a better briefing ...

Higher tariffs are pushing up prices in some categories of goods, resulting in higher overall inflation. A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation will be relatively short-lived, a one-time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent.And that is a risk to be assessed and managed. Our obligation is to ensure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. In the near term, risks to inf ...