If the Reform UK leader wants to raise taxes on bank profits, there are easier ways to do it than scrapping interest rates on central-bank reserves https://t.co/vnxOXvIzds ...

Australia’s household spending growth unexpectedly declined in December following strong gains in the preceding two months, with the outlook for the new year clouded after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates to help restrain demand https://t.co/U4OghsFrph ...

Colombian inflation accelerated in January after a record increase in the minimum wage, cementing expectations that the central bank will keep lifting interest rates https://t.co/I3AQiAbCTc ...

This is Wall Street Week. I'm David Westin, bringing you stories of capitalism. Gold is all over the place, from setting new records to plummeting, to a partial recovery. What does it mean for investors and for those getting the gold out of the ground? Plus, the US had its China shock 20 years ago. Is Europe in store for its own version this time as China looks to find new markets for its exports? And investing in art can be fun. It can be satisfying. But like any investment, it can go down as well as up. W ...

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Worsh has a voting record that shows he never dissented during his tenure as a Fed Governor, which raises questions about his independence and decision-making style [1][3]. Group 1: Voting Record and Policy Stance - Worsh's voting history from February 2006 to March 2011 indicates he consistently aligned with the FOMC consensus, including three rate hikes upon joining in 2006, followed by steady rates and cuts during the financial crisis [3]. - In April 2008, Worsh expressed concerns about inflation while voting for a 25 basis point rate cut, warning that further cuts could signal a dangerous tolerance for inflation [4]. - Worsh emphasized the importance of central bank independence and maintaining inflation expectations, arguing against succumbing to political pressures [5]. Group 2: Current Perspectives and Future Implications - Recently, Worsh has argued that interest rates could be lower due to a productivity boom from AI, which he believes could help reduce inflation [6]. - The confirmation process for Worsh as Fed Chair is ongoing, with implications for current Fed Chair Jay Powell's future role as his term expires [8].

Core Viewpoint - The interim management statement for Hargreave Hale AIM VCT PLC highlights contrasting economic conditions in the US and UK, with the US showing strong growth while the UK faces challenges including weak economic growth and rising unemployment [3][5]. Economic Overview - The US economy reported a robust growth rate of 4.3% in Q3 2025, despite political pressures [3]. - The UK is projected to have a growth rate of 1.5% for 2025 and 1.4% for 2026, with an unemployment rate rising to 5.1% [5]. - Consumer sentiment in the UK has improved post-Autumn Budget, although business confidence remains fragile [4]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - UK inflation, as measured by CPI, increased by 3.4% year-on-year as of December 2025, down from 3.8% in September 2025 [6]. - The Bank of England reduced interest rates to 3.75% during the quarter, with expectations for further cuts in 2026 [6]. Investment Performance - The unaudited NAV per share decreased by 1.25 pence to 35.21 pence, resulting in a total return of -3.43% for shareholders [9]. - The AIM index returned -0.97% in the three months to December 31, 2025, reflecting a challenging market environment [8]. Qualifying Investments - Hardide saw a significant increase of 157.1% in value, returning to profitability and reporting a 40% year-on-year revenue increase [10]. - Skillcast and Tortilla Mexican Grill also reported positive performance, with increases of 11.7% and 34.3% respectively [11]. - Negative contributors included Cohort, which declined by 36.7% despite solid revenue growth, and Diaceutics, which fell by 23.3% without specific news [12][13]. Portfolio Structure - The company maintained a strong investment position, ending the period with 84.11% invested according to HMRC VCT investment tests [16]. - The weighting to qualifying investments increased from 54.0% to 54.9% by market value [16]. Share Buybacks and Market Activity - The company repurchased 2.6 million shares at an average price of 34.14 pence, with the share price trading at a discount of 4.30% to the last published NAV [21]. - Post-period, the NAV per share increased to 36.33 pence, reflecting a 3.18% rise, while AIM increased by 6.54% [22].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, reaching a 15-month low, with a recent modest recovery in trading prices [1]. Price Movement - Bitcoin's price fell to just above $60,000 before recovering to around $64,948, marking a 3.3% increase [1]. - This represents a 47% decrease from its peak of $122,200 in October of the previous year [2]. Market Influences - The decline in Bitcoin's value occurred despite support from US President Donald Trump, who has implemented pro-crypto policies [3]. - Analysts attribute market concerns to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the US Federal Reserve, who is anticipated to favor higher interest rates, negatively impacting speculative assets like cryptocurrencies [4]. Broader Market Impact - Other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum and Solana, have also faced significant losses, contributing to a total market decline of over $2 trillion since the peak in October [4]. - Analysts have indicated that Bitcoin could potentially drop below $40,000, highlighting a correlation between cryptocurrency valuations and the strength of the US dollar [5].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is still grappling with the lingering effects of inflation that surged post-pandemic, impacting household budgets and influencing monetary policy decisions [2][10] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year in December, significantly lower than the peak of 9% in 2022, yet still above the Fed's target of 2% [3][10] - Fed officials are cautious about cutting interest rates further due to ongoing inflation concerns, despite previous rate cuts aimed at boosting the job market [4][10] Inflation Outlook - Fed officials are debating the balance between inflation control and job market health, with some expressing concerns that inflation remains above the target for nearly five years [5][6] - Factors influencing inflation include housing costs and the potential for tariff-related price increases to become sustained rather than temporary [7] - Fed officials, including Thomas Barkin and Raphael Bostic, emphasize the need for patience in addressing inflation, which has been stuck in the high 2s to low 3s range for the past two years [8] Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed's key interest rate was held steady in the most recent meeting, with expectations that it will remain unchanged for the next two meetings, at least until June [12] - There is a 66% probability of a rate cut in June, according to market forecasts [12] - Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expressed confidence that inflation will eventually reach the 2% target and suggested that the Fed should consider rate cuts if labor market conditions improve [9][11]

Market Overview - The markets are focusing on earnings and economic news, with expectations for December JOLTS job openings to increase by 104,000 to 7.250 million [1] - The University of Michigan's January consumer sentiment index is expected to decline by 1.4 points to 55.0 [1] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin is down over 3% to a 1.25-year low, marking a 45% decline from its October record high [2] - Inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have reversed, with approximately $2 billion withdrawn in the past month and over $5 billion in the last three months [2] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Fed Governor Lisa Cook supports the decision to hold interest rates steady, citing risks tilted toward higher inflation [3] - Challenger's January job cuts rose by 117.8% year-over-year to 108,435, the largest for January since 2009 [3] - Weekly initial unemployment claims increased by 22,000 to an 8-week high of 231,000, exceeding expectations of 212,000 [3] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are experiencing losses, with the S&P 500 falling to a 2-week low and the Nasdaq 100 to a 2.5-month low [4] - Qualcomm's forecast of weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue led to a decline of over 9% in its stock, impacting chip stocks [4] - Alphabet's forecast for full-year 2026 capital expenditures of $175 billion to $185 billion, significantly above the consensus of $119.5 billion, has raised concerns about its free cash flow [4] Earnings Season Insights - 150 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report earnings this week, with 81% of the 237 companies that have reported so far beating expectations [6] - S&P earnings growth is projected to rise by 8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [6] - Excluding the Magnificent Seven technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by 4.6% [6] Interest Rates and Bond Market - March 10-year T-notes are up by 10 ticks, with the yield down by 4.0 basis points to 4.234% [8] - The increase in T-notes is attributed to safe-haven demand amid stock market weakness and rising unemployment claims [8] International Market Performance - European stock markets are lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 1.05% and China's Shanghai Composite down by 0.64% [7] - Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down by 0.88% [7] Company-Specific Movements - Estee Lauder is down over 19% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $2.05 to $2.25, below the consensus of $2.17 [15] - Qualcomm's Q2 revenue forecast of $10.2 billion to $11.0 billion is below the consensus of $11.18 billion, leading to a decline of over 9% [12] - McKesson Corp is up over 13% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $9.34, exceeding the consensus of $9.27 [17] - Align Technology is up over 11% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.29, stronger than the consensus of $2.97 [17]

Company Overview - AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is scheduled to release its Q4 2025 earnings on February 20, which will include a regular dividend and an additional dividend to meet annual payout targets [1] - The company plans to distribute half of its free cash flows to investors as dividends, having already made two true-up payments following Q2 and Q3 earnings [1] Stock Performance - AU stock has experienced a significant rise over the past two years due to a rally in gold prices, but it has recently lost over 12% from its recent highs [2] - The current question is whether AU stock is a buy ahead of the Q4 earnings announcement [2] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices, which are the primary driver for gold mining companies, have shown volatility recently, resembling the price action of meme stocks in 2021 [3] - Despite positive fundamentals for gold, the market had shown signs of euphoria, leading to a correction that was sharper and sooner than anticipated [6] - Factors contributing to the recent crash in gold prices include easing geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. trade policy, as well as the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, which has affected expectations for interest rate cuts [7][8]