Copper prices hold steady as the market weighed a fresh supply disruption in Peru against the Fed’s path on interest rates https://t.co/aFChTfuBh3 ...

Inflation Trends - Australia's monthly inflation gauge accelerated to the top of the Reserve Bank's 2-3% target in August [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The inflation data supports the case for interest rates to remain on hold for now [1]

Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Market - The commercial real estate market experienced a shock state in 2023, followed by a partial recovery in 2024 [4] - Rising interest rates, specifically an increase of 500 basis points (5%), significantly impacted real estate valuations, causing investors to pull back [5] - With the easing cycle beginning, investors are returning, driven by adjusted prices in multifamily, shopping centers, and office buildings, suggesting a potential path to recovery [5][6] - Office market dynamics show companies are becoming more conservative about office space due to hybrid work models and a push for efficiency, leading to reduced demand, but daily traffic is recovering to 80% of pre-pandemic levels [9][10] - Warehouse demand remains strong, but oversupply and tariff uncertainties have created some market softness, particularly concerning port-related employment in areas like Southern California [15][16] - Brick and mortar retail is experiencing a resurgence, especially for class A prime retail space and locations with experiential components like restaurants and entertainment [16][17] Restaurant Industry - The restaurant industry faces increasing closures and net job losses, impacting a vulnerable workforce including first-time job seekers, returning citizens, single parents, and new immigrants [19][20] - Restaurants are struggling with gender and pay equity issues, employee challenges, and higher food prices, making it a difficult time for the industry [22][25] - Immigration crackdowns are significantly impacting the labor supply for restaurants and farms, highlighting the need for immigration reform to support the food system [26][27] - Tipping is described as an antiquated system with a problematic history, and the industry is grappling with issues like resistance to tipping and varying state regulations on service charges [29][30][31] Prediction Markets - Robinhood offers a prediction market product that allows users to trade on the probability of outcomes in areas like presidential elections, sports, and economic events [36] - These prediction market products fall under the jurisdiction of the CFTC and NFA, similar to traditional futures products [39][40] - Economic event contracts, such as those related to Fed rate cuts, are seen as a significant opportunity for prediction markets [42][43] - Sports have opened up the opportunity for people to participate in prediction markets, with 100 million contracts traded in the first weekend and over 300 million after the past weekend [50]

Hello everyone. One of the biggest pessimists on Wall Street. He just flipped bullish. Watch out. A housing expert is going to explain to us just how much your income needs to increase to make housing more affordable again. And one of the best traders alive, he's going to sit down with me and explain what he's seeing in the market right now that makes him so cautious. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano. [Music] Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. I'm trying to get to 1 mill ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the challenging balancing act policymakers face regarding interest rates, highlighting the complexities posed by inflation and employment risks [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rates - Powell reiterated the difficulty in determining the appropriate path for interest rates due to the current economic conditions [1] Inflation Risks - The risks associated with inflation are significant, contributing to the challenging economic outlook [1] Employment Concerns - Employment risks also play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve's decisions, complicating the overall economic landscape [1]

Core Insights - Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN) has seen a modest share price increase of 2% year-to-date, with discussions linking its performance to interest rates [2] - Jim Cramer has consistently highlighted Lennar's strong business model and operational practices, referring to it as a "superb operator," but notes the complexity in deciding to invest in the stock [2][3] - The performance of Lennar's shares is significantly influenced by long-term interest rates, with Cramer indicating that higher rates could lead to more challenges for the company [3] Company Performance - Lennar Corporation's stock performance has been modest, with a 2% increase in 2025, reflecting broader market conditions [2] - Cramer emphasizes that the company's success is contingent on lower mortgage rates, which are critical for the housing market [3] Market Context - The discussion around Lennar Corporation is set against a backdrop of fluctuating interest rates, which are expected to impact the housing sector and companies like Lennar [2][3] - Cramer suggests that while Lennar is a strong company, the current economic environment makes it difficult to justify owning the stock without favorable interest rate conditions [3]

Monetary Policy - 美联储理事 Michelle Bowman 警告称，如果劳动力市场疲软，决策者可能会落后，必须降息 [1]

And joining us right now to talk about the Fed's recent quarter rate point rate cut, the central bank's future rate path and much more. We want to bring in Jim Bullard. He is the former St.Louis Fed president who's now dean of the business school at Purdue University. He's also in the running as the next Fed chair and as we heard from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant last week. They had a very good and productive meeting recently.Jim, thanks for being here this morning. Um, good to see you. What did you thi ...

A few things are happening here. So since September of last year, one year later, the Fed has now reduced rates by 125 basis points. Yep.And that brings us to 4 and a quarter 4 to 4 and a quarter. The Fed no doubt will go to a neutral rate, which is 3%. So they have 125 basis points to go.So only at the halfway mark. So that's the first thing. It's only eased one time this year.But they have a lot more to go because jobs are slowing. And more importantly, the neutral rate is much lower than the rate we have ...

[Music] Welcome to Market Overtime. I'm Nicole Pedalites. The Federal Reserve has delivered its first rate cut of the year, a widely expected 25 basis points cut that had broad support.On this episode, we'll examine the FOMC announcement, Jerome Powell's commentary, and what this all means for your portfolio, as well as investigate AI. Of course, we've had so much momentum with AI, but when does it fizzle out. When do some of the details within AI and fundamentals really matter.And we bring in an expert for ...