Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - Traders are anticipating an 88.6% chance of the rate cut, indicating that the news is likely already reflected in stock prices [2] - Any indication of restraint from the Fed could negatively impact equities, suggesting a potential "hawkish cut" where rates are lowered but future cuts may be delayed [2] Group 2: Future Projections - The "dot plot" will provide insights into Fed officials' projections for interest rates over the coming years, serving as a key indicator of any hawkish stance [3] - Investors will closely analyze Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and central bankers' estimates for U.S. economic growth and inflation to assess the Fed's future rate trajectory [3] - There is a possibility that year-end market sentiment may be subdued this year despite the rate cut [3]

Welcome back to the Crypto channel everyone. My name is Josh and right now Bitcoin is still struggling at this exact area of resistance while there's now less than one day to go until the next FOMC meeting also known as a Fed meeting which could heavily affect the market in the short term. While the price of Bitcoin in the shorter term is continuing to form a new price pattern that we need to pay attention to, while Ethereum is now hitting my exact price target on the price chart, but is now flashing a new ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a point, but the commentary following the cut is likely to be hawkish, indicating a divided stance within the committee [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Traders are pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1]. - There is dissent among FOMC committee members, suggesting that while a cut may occur, future cuts are not guaranteed, particularly in January [2][3]. - The market's expectation for rate cuts next year may not be sustainable, as the recent rally has been driven by liquidity and the anticipation of easier monetary policy [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - There is no compelling reason for the Fed to cut rates if inflation remains around 3% and economic growth continues at its current pace, which could lead to higher interest rates [5]. - High valuation speculative investments, including cryptocurrencies and meme stocks, are heavily influenced by liquidity and expectations of a dovish Fed, posing risks to the broader market [6].

Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a 3.5-week high and closed down -0.13%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.37%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.14%.Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close as 495 of the 500 S&P companies have released results. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% ...

Key Takeaways The Federal Reserve seems likely to cut interest rates again this week, but it probably won't do so as a united front. Fed officials are split on whether the economy needs lower interest rates, a debate that starts Tuesday and will also be on display when the Federal Open Market Committee's decision comes out at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday. The more dovish FOMC officials are likely to prevail. The Fed is widely expected to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, amid sig ...

The Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year began on Tuesday morning, Dec. 9, with the central bank scheduled to announce its final monetary policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday afternoon. Investors expect the Fed will cut rates by 0.25%, its third cut of the year, at the conclusion of its two-day meeting, with data from the CME Group showing a 90% chance the central bank will cut rates this week. Along with its final policy decision of the year, the Fed will also publish its final Summary of ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a contentious meeting that will test Chair Jerome Powell's ability to secure support for a third consecutive interest rate cut amid a divided committee and mixed economic signals [1][2]. Economic Conditions - The Fed's 19-member rate-setting committee is sharply divided on whether to lower borrowing costs, with inflation remaining elevated while hiring is weak and the unemployment rate has risen [2][3]. - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September, marking the highest level in four years, and companies reportedly shed 32,000 jobs in November according to ADP [13]. Committee Dynamics - Some economists predict that three Fed officials may vote against the proposed quarter-point cut, potentially leading to the most dissenting votes in six years [3]. - The potential for greater disagreement within the committee is seen as a sign of healthy debate, although sharp splits could undermine financial market confidence [6][12]. Future Outlook - Most economists expect a "hawkish cut," where the Fed will reduce rates while signaling a pause to assess the economy's health [8][15]. - Fed officials will have up to three months of backlogged jobs and inflation data to consider before their late January meeting, which could influence future rate decisions [14].

Group 1: Dollar Index and Federal Reserve - The dollar index rose by +0.11% amid short covering ahead of the FOMC meeting, with expectations of a 25 bp cut in the federal funds target range [1][3] - The unexpected rise in October JOLTS job openings to 7.670 million, a 5-month high, indicates a stronger labor market, which is a hawkish factor for Fed policy [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Chair Selection - President Trump plans to announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026, with Kevin Hassett seen as the likely candidate [2] - Hassett's nomination is viewed as bearish for the dollar due to his dovish stance and support for President Trump's approach to interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Euro and German Trade Data - The euro fell by -0.05% against the dollar, influenced by the dollar's strength and weaker-than-expected German trade news [4] - German October exports rose by +0.1% m/m, below expectations of +0.2% m/m, while imports fell by -1.2% m/m, weaker than the anticipated -0.5% m/m [5] Group 4: Japanese Yen Performance - The yen declined by +0.60% against the dollar, reaching a 2-week low due to comments from BOJ Governor Ueda regarding bond yields [6] - The stronger-than-expected US October JOLTS job openings report contributed to higher T-note yields, further pressuring the yen [6]

We recently published 10 Stocks Standing Tall Amid Market Fall; 6 Hit Record Highs. Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) is one of the best performers on Monday. Carvana soared to a new all-time high on Monday after 10 consecutive days of rally, as investors took heart from its official inclusion in the S&P 500 index. At intra-day trading, Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) jumped to its highest price of $456.97 before paring gains to end the day just up by 12.06 percent at $447.98 apiece. This followed the S&P Dow Jones Indic ...

Key Takeaways The FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps.The options market implies a ~1% SPX move post-announcement.Powell's tone and 2026 rate cut expectations are the real market drivers. If there’s one economic event investors should follow, it’s the action of central banks. Legendary billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has never suffered a down year in more than 30 years on Wall Street, said it best when he said:“Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Boar ...