Nisha, let's get you into the conversation when it comes to South Asia. The countries have been hit hard. We've seen tariffs ranging from 20 to 46%.I mean, you can say that the U.S., Trump in particular, has played hardball. Yes, indeed. And I think, you know, what has been surprising is that with India, the negotiations had been going quite well.And we were hearing as as early as just a couple of weeks ago from senior levels of the Trump administration, that they felt confident that they had unprecedented ...

Negotiation Status - The negotiation counterparts are considered tough negotiators [1] - The negotiation aims for a deal, but it's not 100% certain [2] - A 90-day role was announced prematurely [2] - Technical details remain to be worked out [2] Key Personnel - Julie Fong, the vice premier, leads the Chinese delegation [1] - Ambassador Greer will be speaking to President Trump [2] Timeline - The role has an August 12th deadline [2]

All right, 15% tariffs on our biggest trading partner. Um, I was at the New York Stock Exchange in recent weeks. A lot of people were saying to me essentially 15%, that's the new zero. It seems to be a number that's palatable to the market.Do you agree with this idea that the market can continue to move higher and that businesses can move with a certain degree of certainty with 15% tariffs. >> That's the big question. Uh, 15% looks like the baseline.Um, and that's that's the big question. Have we reached th ...

US-China Trade Negotiations - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicates that US-China negotiations will continue next week [1]

Geopolitical Strategy - European leaders engaged in a monthslong campaign to persuade President Trump to arm Ukraine [1] - The campaign aimed to pressure Russia into serious negotiations [1]

Trade Policy & Strategy - The Trump administration's trade policy is characterized by inconsistency, including tariff delays, unreleased deals, and contradictions between the President and his staff [1][2] - The administration initially imposed reciprocal tariffs, then paused them, and subsequently extended the deadline, creating uncertainty [2] - The administration's messaging on trade deals is inconsistent, with negotiators finalizing deals that the President later seeks to improve [3][4] - The administration aims to expedite trade negotiations, potentially leading to both gains and risks for the overall trade agenda [6] Tariffs & Deadlines - Reciprocal tariffs were initially imposed around April 2nd, then paused for 90 days, with a deadline set for July 9th, which was later extended [2] - The new deadline for tariffs was set for August 1st [2][5] Negotiation Tactics - The administration uses letters posted on Truth Social to announce tariff rates, while also suggesting potential adjustments based on how the US is treated [5] - The administration's approach aims to accelerate negotiations and potentially extract more concessions from other nations [6]

On Friday, we're talking about all these letters that the Trump administration had been sending out and talking about perhaps how the EU had been spared for the time being because they were engaged in negotiations with Trump around a potential baseline rate of 10%. He obviously surprised them over the weekend by insinuating it could go as high as 30%. How disruptive could that be for the EU.Yeah. It's hard to know whether this is really Trump narrowing in on what he thinks his final offer will be, or just e ...

Tariff Uncertainty & Deadlines - The market faces uncertainty regarding President Trump's tariff threats, with August 1st as a key deadline [1][2][4][15] - Negotiations are crucial; positive outcomes could lead to further exemptions, while failures may trigger tariff increases [2][3][15] - Clients are advised to closely monitor the news cycle for updates on negotiations [2] Political & Policy Considerations - Tariffs on Brazil are more of a political issue related to President Trump's views on former President Bolsonaro [3][4][6] - The US-Brazil relationship is unique due to this political dimension [4] - President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement tariffs is facing legal challenges [6][7] Implementation & Market Impact - Markets are largely pricing in the new round of tariffs as status quo [8] - The President aims to avoid tariffs that harm US consumers [9][10][11] - USMCA goods from Canada are not impacted by the additional 10% tariff, limiting the impact on US consumers [10] - Rising prices at grocery stores and major retailers could prompt President Trump to reconsider tariffs [11][12] Legal Challenges & Timelines - Court proceedings challenging the tariffs are ongoing, but courts move slowly [12][13] - The Supreme Court could potentially hear the case later this year [14] - Market participants desire immediate certainty, which the courts cannot provide [14][15]

Trade Negotiations & Tariff Landscape - The US administration initially promised numerous trade deals within a short timeframe, but has achieved limited results, indicating challenges in finalizing agreements [3] - The US is pursuing reciprocal tariffs, aiming to lower them upon reaching deals, but this approach doesn't cover potential sectoral tariffs on critical minerals, aerospace, semiconductors, or pharmaceuticals, complicating negotiations [6][7] - Many US trading partners express confusion regarding US demands, perceiving a lack of clear objectives and prioritization in negotiations [8][10][11] - Countries are diversifying trade relationships to reduce dependence on the US market, leading to increased free trade agreement activity among other nations [13][14] - The administration may become more flexible in trade negotiations if the US experiences economic fallout from tariff hikes [15] Potential Outcomes & Risks - If trade deals are not finalized by August 1st, tariff levels may increase, potentially forcing compliance or leading countries to seek alternative trading partners [4][12] - Sectoral tariffs, such as those on autos, copper, and potentially semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, are proving difficult to resolve and may hinder broader trade negotiations [5][7] - The US risks being excluded from the benefits of increased trade and economic integration among its partners as they pursue alternative arrangements [14]

Trade Policy & Deadlines - The President has set a firm deadline of August 1st for country-specific tariffs to take effect, with no extensions granted [2] - This deadline is intended to be unchangeable, despite previous indications of flexibility [3][4] - Tariff rates could potentially fluctuate based on ongoing negotiations [4] Trade Negotiations & Partners - Trade negotiations involve multiple countries, including Japan, the EU, and India, with varying degrees of progress [7][8] - Japan and the EU are perceived as particularly tough negotiators [8] - Smaller deals with countries like Thailand, Malaysia, or Cambodia might be reached sooner [9] - The White House is prioritizing negotiations with the largest trading partners, which are also the most challenging [9] Cabinet Meeting Focus - The cabinet meeting will address the impact of the President's mega bill on each department [6] - Updates on trade negotiations are expected from the Treasury Secretary, Commerce Secretary, and the US Trade Representative [5]