JUST IN: 🇺🇸 JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to end quantitative tightening next week. ...

Monetary Policy - JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to end quantitative tightening next week [1] - Rate cuts are anticipated [1] - Money printing is potentially on the horizon [1] Market Outlook - Bitcoin is expected to rise above $100,000 [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR's Q3 GAAP net income available to common stockholders was $156.3 million, or $1.49 per common share, with net interest income at $38.5 million [3] - Distributed earnings available to common stockholders was $75.3 million, or $0.72 per common share, reflecting a total economic return of 7.75% for the quarter [3][4] - Quarter-end book value increased to $17.49 per common share, up 3.5% from June 30th and 2.8% from August 8th [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR raised approximately $99.5 million of capital by issuing about 6 million shares through an at-the-market offering program [4] - The company repurchased 700,000 shares of common stock through its repurchase program during Q3 [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point cut in September, with expectations for two additional cuts by year-end, creating a favorable environment for agency MBS [7][8] - Treasury yields declined, agency MBS spreads tightened by roughly 20 basis points, and volatility fell to its lowest level since 2022 [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ARMOUR's strategy focuses on growing and deploying capital thoughtfully during spread dislocations while maintaining robust liquidity and dynamically adjusting hedges for disciplined risk management [15] - The company aims to pay an attractive and stable dividend, with a current monthly dividend of $0.24 per share [5][6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macroeconomic environment has become more uncertain due to the federal government shutdown, but they expect continued structural demand for agency mortgage-backed securities [8][13] - The company anticipates that regulatory clarity around banking reform and a resumed easing cycle will serve as catalysts for high-quality liquid assets like mortgage-backed securities [13] Other Important Information - ARMOUR's portfolio is entirely invested in agency mortgage-backed securities, agency commercial MBS, and U.S. Treasuries, with a net duration of 0.2 years and applied leverage of 8.1 times [10] - The aggregate portfolio prepayment rates rose to 9.6 CPR in October, a 19% increase from the third-quarter average of 8.1 CPR [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current returns on incremental investments and hedge choices - Management expects hedged ROEs in the 16% to 18% range, slightly lower than previous quarters due to tight mortgage spreads [18] Question: Outlook for swap spreads and mortgage spreads on an OIS basis - Swap spreads are expected to normalize, providing a tailwind for the portfolio as a more effective hedge for MBS [20][21] Question: GSE deregulation and its impact on borrower rates - Management indicated that various levers could be pulled to reduce borrower rates, but there is a balance to maintain GSE attractiveness [24][25] Question: Interest rate volatility and its future evolution - Management believes that while short-term volatility may occur, medium-term volatility is expected to decline as the Fed continues normalization [32] Question: Economic net interest margin outlook - The future of the economic net interest margin will depend on the portfolio and the pace of Fed rate cuts [36][37] Question: MBS spreads and Fed rate cuts - Management noted that a pause in the easing cycle could lead to volatility, but actual cuts may unlock bank demand for MBS [42][43] Question: Stock valuation during capital raising and buyback transactions - The stock buybacks occurred at around $14.40 per share, and management is committed to being active on both sides of the equity account [45]

By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -A Federal Reserve official’s proposal to overhaul the central bank’s interest rate target system is getting a warm reception but still faces long odds as the Fed's balance sheet wind-down nears conclusion and Fed leadership is due to change next year. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who previously ran the New York Fed's open market operations, last month proposed changing the interest rate targeted by the Fed from the federal funds rate, the focus of monetary policy for d ...

Core Viewpoint - State Street's chief investment strategist, Michael Arone, maintains a bullish outlook on the market heading into 2026, albeit with caution due to a small margin for error [2][3]. Economic Outlook - The economy is cooling modestly, inflation is improving, and Federal Reserve policy is moving towards a neutral stance [3]. - Arone anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts at every meeting through the end of the year, with the possibility of two additional cuts in 2026 [3]. Earnings Expectations - Analysts have raised profit estimates for the third-quarter earnings, which is unusual and indicates a high risk of disappointment [2]. - Corporate outlooks will be more closely monitored than quarterly earnings beats, with expectations of cautious guidance from executives [4]. Investment Strategy - State Street remains overweight in equities and real assets, underweight in bonds, and holds minimal cash [4]. - Investors are encouraged to diversify into small caps, international equities, and equal-weighted tech exposure to mitigate risks associated with megacap stocks [4]. Real Assets Focus - Emphasis is placed on "real assets," including gold, commodities, natural resources, real estate, and infrastructure, as a hedge against inflation and rate volatility [5]. - A suggested portfolio allocation is a modernized 60/30/10 model, with 10% dedicated to tangible assets [5]. Market Resilience - Historical data suggests that government shutdowns do not significantly harm the economy, with expansions following 11 of the last 12 shutdowns [6]. - The long-term view indicates that the rising federal deficit may create structural headwinds, keeping rates elevated and increasing volatility [6]. Long-term Outlook - Stocks are expected to perform well as long as the economy continues to expand and earnings grow, maintaining their status as a reliable long-term inflation hedge [7].

Market Performance - Wall Street's major indexes rebounded on October 20, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.99% to 6,730.02, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.80% to 46,560.52, and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 1.37% to 22,990.00, driven by a "buy the dip" strategy in mega-cap technology stocks [2][9] - The Nasdaq Composite achieved a year-to-date return of 16.9% [9] Technology Sector - Optimism surrounding AI continues to drive market performance, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reaching an all-time high, supported by strong performances from Micron (up 3.6%), ON Semiconductor (up 5.6%), and KLA (up 4.8%) [3] - Apple shares rose 4.3% to a record high, while Meta and Netflix each gained over 2% [2] Earnings Outlook - S&P 500 companies are projected to report a 9.3% year-on-year increase in third-quarter profits, with investors closely monitoring earnings reports from major companies like Tesla, Ford, GM, and Netflix [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Bank of America indicated a higher risk of Federal Reserve balance sheet runoff in October, coinciding with signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggesting an end to the quantitative tightening program [10][11] - The Fed's balance sheet has been reduced from a peak of nearly $9 trillion to approximately $6.6-$7 trillion [10] - The CME FedWatch Tool predicts a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming October 28-29 FOMC meeting, with another reduction expected in December [11]

Core Insights - BNB, the native token of the BNB Chain, experienced a 1.4% increase in the last 24 hours, despite significant price fluctuations within a 7% range during a high-volume trading session [1][2] Market Context - The rise in BNB coincided with a broader rally in risk assets, including a 2.6% increase in Bitcoin and a 2.5% rise in the wider crypto market, influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump's softened tariff stance and potential easing of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening [2][5] - Traders are anticipating a 25 basis-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month, while easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China have contributed to increased risk appetite [5] Trading Activity - BNB opened at approximately $1,077, peaked at $1,144, and then retraced to around $1,122, indicating a pullback due to waning momentum [3] - Trading volume surged to 128,847 tokens, nearly double the 24-hour average, reflecting heightened market activity [3] Developments in Token Support - Coinbase has added BNB to its list of assets under review for full platform support as part of its "Blue Carpet" initiative aimed at expanding retail access to more tokens [4] - China Merchants Bank International (CMBI) has tokenized its U.S. dollar money market fund on the BNB Chain, issuing two tokens for accredited investors [4]

QT about to end after 3 years2 more rate cuts in 2025Gold liquidity rotation to $BTCLeverage flush completed and Thestage is now set for parabolic Q4.I think the real Pump starts end of Octor latest by Nov first week. It’s coming,I can feel it, Patience is the key. ...

Market Trends - Quantitative Tightening (QT) is ending soon [1] - Quantitative Easing (QE) might return [1] - Insanely bullish for Bitcoin [1]

Gold monthly RSI at 50-year high.QT will end soon.2 rate cuts in 2025.US-China trade deal is coming.Crypto sentiment is at extreme fear.This is not the time to be bearish. ...