Economic Indicators & Market Reaction - August新增就业岗位仅22,000个 [1] - 失业率小幅上升至4.3% [2] - 纽约时报报道，由于高利率和特朗普政府的关税等经济政策，经济自疫情高峰期以来一直在降温 [2] - 股市最初希望美联储降息而上涨，但随后因担心经济衰退而下跌，道琼斯指数下跌超过200点 [2] Policy Impact & Analysis - 报告认为，就业市场和更广泛的经济放缓是政策导致的，受到关税、移民政策和政府削减开支的影响 [3][4] - 特朗普政府的政策被指责为“自残行为”，与此前专家预测的软着陆（核心通胀率接近2%，经济增长率接近2.5%）背道而驰 [10][11] - 关税和移民政策导致经济放缓的同时，通货膨胀也在上升，对普通民众造成双重打击 [14] Job Market Details - 6月份劳动力市场减少了13,000个工作岗位，是自2020年12月以来的首次负增长 [2] - 前两个月的就业数据被下调了21,000个 [2] - 在过去的四个月里，平均每月新增就业岗位为29,000个 [12] - 如果不包括医疗保健等行业，建筑业和制造业等领域实际上已经损失了142,000个工作岗位 [13] Political Context & Credibility - 特朗普政府被指责歪曲经济数据，前劳工统计局局长因公布“真实数据”而被解雇 [2] - 特朗普声称至少一年内不会有“真实数据” [2] - 劳工统计局的数据收集方式没有改变，数据是真实的，但特朗普政府的政策是经济放缓的原因 [2][3]

The August jobs report was released moments ago, showing that the US added just 22,000 jobs last month, much much less than the 75,000 that economists expected. The unemployment rate also saw a slight increase to 4.3%. This, of course, the first jobs report released since President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month after that report showed not just a weak level of job creation, but also a dramatic reductions in previous month's totals.There's no way to sugarcoat this. This jo ...

We're back with some breaking economic data. >> Yeah. In the first jobs report since President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 22,000 jobs in August.That is much less than what was expected. The unemployment rate came in at 4.3%. >> Here to dig into the numbers, NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Chung and Invested's editor-inchief Caleb Silver.They are our economic dream team. But Brian, these are not dream numbers here. I mean, walk us through it on ...

All right, President Trump signing an executive order Thursday that will allow tariffs on auto and other imports from Japan to be coming in at much lower rates, 15% versus the 25 to 27 1.5%. Uh joining us right now to talk about this is Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik and SE Secretary Lutnik, thank you for being with us today. Let's walk through how this kind of played out and what the specific details are in this agreement. All right. So the Japanese in order to buy down their tariff rate, so they had a 2 ...

Welcome back. Economic activity seeing quote little to no growth in recent weeks. That according to the Fed's latest Facebook survey.Investors now looking ahead to this Friday's jobs report for more clarity on where this economy is going. Joining me now to Slack. He is Apollo partner and chief economist.And I mispronounced your last name and you I hope will accept my sincere apologies for that. >> Of course. All good.I've heard many variants of my name over the last many many years. So >> the the correct on ...

Labor Market Conditions - The unemployment rate is at a historically low level of 42% and has been broadly stable [1] - Labor supply has softened in line with demand, lowering the break-even rate of job creation [1] - Labor force growth has slowed considerably due to a sharp falloff in immigration and a decrease in the labor force participation rate, suggesting rising downside risks to employment [2] Economic Growth and Inflation - GDP growth has slowed to a pace of 12%-2% in the first half of the year, roughly half the 25% pace in 2024, reflecting a slowdown in consumer spending [3] - Total PCE prices rose 26% over the 12 months ending in July, while core PCE prices rose 29% [4][5] - Prices of goods increased 11% over the past 12 months, contrasting with the modest decline seen in 2024 [5] Impact of Tariffs - The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now visible and are expected to accumulate, with uncertainty about timing and amounts [6] - A reasonable base case is that the effects of tariffs will be relatively short-lived, representing a one-time shift in the price level [7] - There is a risk that upward pressure on prices from tariffs could spur a more lasting inflation dynamic [8] Inflation Expectations - Measures of longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well-anchored and consistent with the long-run inflation objective of 2% [10] - The industry will not allow a one-time increase in the price level to become ongoing inflation [10]

Inflation & Tariffs - The Fed acknowledges that higher tariffs have started to increase prices in certain categories [2] - July's core PCE is observed at 2.9%, a 0.1% increase from June, with notable upward pressure on goods and downward pressure on housing and non-housing services [2] - The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible and expected to accumulate in the coming months, although the base case assumes these effects will be relatively short-lived [3] - It will take time for the tariffs to fully impact supply chains [3] Labor Market - Job growth slowdown is more significant than previously estimated, with substantial downward revisions [4] - The labor market is in a curious balance, characterized by slowing supply and demand for workers [5] - The break-even rate required to maintain a stable unemployment rate has been sharply reduced due to immigration policies [5] - Risks to the labor market could lead to rapid increases in layoffs and unemployment, prompting caution regarding rate levels [6] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The shifting balance of risk may warrant adjustments to the Fed's policy stance [1] - Current policy is modestly restrictive, but the stability of the unemployment rate allows the Fed to proceed cautiously [1] - Inflation risks are to the upside, while employment risks are to the downside [1] - The Fed aims to take a balanced approach to its dual mandate [2] - Economic growth has slowed notably in the first half [6]

Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve staff expects real GDP growth through 2027 to align with prior forecasts [1] - Unemployment is projected to exceed the natural rate by end-2025 and remain elevated [1] Financial Market Implications - Payment stablecoin usage may rise following the GENIUS Act [1] - Increased stablecoin usage could boost demand for assets like U S Treasuries [1]

Recession Risks - Moody's Analytics认为美国经济衰退的风险非常高，就业是关键 [1] - 如果三个月移动平均失业率上升超过 0.5 个百分点，历史上预示着经济衰退 [3] - 由于移民政策等因素，失业率可能无法完全反映经济疲软 [4] - 负面的就业数据将是经济衰退的明确信号，历史上，当就业数据转为负值时，通常是经济衰退开始的月份 [2][6] - 要确认经济衰退，需要看到一系列持续的经济活动下降，而不仅仅是一两个月的负面数据 [6][7] Labor Market Dynamics - 稳定失业率所需的每月新增就业人数约为 2550 人 [5] - 由于数据测量问题等因素，潜在的就业增长可能接近该水平 [5] - 移民对劳动力增长至关重要，但更严格的移民政策导致外国出生的劳动力增长下降，甚至开始下降 [8][9][10] - 由于外国出生劳动力减少，整体劳动力规模低于年初水平，从而压低了失业率 [10][11] - 劳动力增长放缓会降低经济的潜在增长率，并可能导致通胀压力 [11][12] Consumer Spending - 今年总体实际消费支出停滞不前，部分原因可能是移民政策的影响 [12][13]

A new concern following a week of mixed inflation reports. Economists are warning President Trump's new immigration policies will contribute to the rising prices of goods due to a dwindling labor force. It comes as companies struggle to absorb the full weight of the president's tariffs.And joining me now is Courtney Brown, an economics reporter at Axios, focusing on the global economy. Welcome, my friend. So Courtney, you're right.Job market gloom hasn't been this bad since the Great Recession. And while th ...