Risk Management - Bybit will gradually introduce a new insurance fund mechanism to manage high volatility and reduce ADL triggers [1] - New USDT perpetual contracts will first enter a dedicated insurance fund of at least $8 million before moving into a shared, composite fund based on risk and liquidity [1] - The new system raises the average loss-absorption capacity per trading pair by over 200% compared with the previous single-pair model [1]

Market Overview - The VIX index settled at its lowest level in 12 months, indicating low volatility in the market, while equities are near all-time highs, suggesting that option premiums for hedging are relatively cheap [2][3] - Despite low volatility, historical trends suggest that such low levels of the VIX do not last long, typically only a few sessions [5] Economic Indicators - Recent consumer confidence data showed a reading of 89.1, below the estimate of 91, but above the previous reading of 88.7, indicating mixed consumer sentiment [6] - The GDP growth for Q3 was reported at over 1% above expectations, but there are concerns about the reliability of this data due to significant month-over-month changes, particularly an 18% increase in consumer exports from August to September [10][11] Consumer Behavior - There appears to be a bifurcation in the economy where consumer confidence is low, yet spending remains robust, supporting economic activity [7] - The healthcare sector is noted as a strong area for job growth, while manufacturing shows signs of weakness [17][18] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - Expectations for a Fed rate cut in January have decreased significantly, from above 25% to 13%, reflecting market skepticism about the need for further cuts given the current economic data [19] - The Fed's potential for rate cuts may be limited if GDP growth remains strong, with the possibility of only one cut as an insurance measure to boost employment [17][19] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is experiencing strength, with gold reaching an all-time high above $4500 per ounce and silver also hitting record levels, driven by inflation concerns and economic growth [20][21] - Structural supply shortages in copper are expected to support prices, and there is anticipation of significant inventory builds in the grain markets [22][23] - The physical commodities market is likely to benefit from ongoing economic expansion, with potential impacts on housing market prices due to rising input costs [24][25]

Let's look at Bitcoin prices this morning. Oh my god, there might not be another interest rate cut. Uh, better sell some Bitcoin.Um, there it is. Um, right now down 598 at 87. We'll talk about where it's been uh with Anthony Pompiano, founder uh and CEO.I was looking at Coinbase. Got as high as 300 back in 21. Then it went all the way down to 30. Then it got all the way up Anthony and then we'll get to coin uh to Bitcoin all the way up to almost 400 again.Now it's almost been cut in half again. very volat d ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin remains range-bound with support at $85,000 and resistance at $93,000, marking its weakest year-end performance in seven years as liquidity thins and traders adopt a cautious stance [2][4] - A significant expiration of Bitcoin options is anticipated, with approximately 300,000 contracts worth $23.7 billion set to expire, representing over 50% of Deribit's total open interest [2][3] - Year-end tax-loss harvesting may increase short-term volatility in the crypto market, as investors can realize losses and re-establish positions without restrictions [4] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's perpetual open interest has decreased by $3 billion, while Ethereum's has dropped by $2 billion, indicating reduced leverage and potential for sharp market movements [1] - Open interest in $85,000 puts has decreased from 15,000 to around 12,000 contracts, while $100,000 calls remain stable at approximately 17,000 contracts, suggesting some optimism for a potential rally [3] - On-chain data indicates weakening buying pressure, with a decline in active addresses and buy-volume divergence in Binance futures markets, reminiscent of the 2021 cycle structure [5][6] ETF and Investment Trends - Bitcoin ETFs have experienced significant outflows totaling $461.8 million over three days, with BlackRock and Fidelity leading the withdrawals, reflecting growing risk-off sentiment as the year ends [6]

Market Trends & Investment Strategy - Investors are not afraid of risk and are buying risk in the later stage of the bull market [1][2] - Investors are focusing on growth around the secular AI story and cyclicals due to leverage to the real economy [2] - Equity markets have priced in over 10% compound annual growth in earnings for the S&P 500, leading to a more balanced upside and downside [4] - Risk is expected in 2026, with symmetrical downside days expected after big upside days, but still with a tilt to the upside [5] - Sentiment is high, and without new news, markets tend to grind higher, but any negative news could cause choppiness [10][11] Company Focus & Performance - Boston Scientific (a medtech company) is a way to balance the AI-related tech exposure [6] - Boston Scientific is expected to expand gross margins by 0.5%, net margins by 1%, and improve efficiency [7] - Boston Scientific is getting great incremental cash returns on its capital expenditure (capex) and research & development (R&D) investments [8] Short-Term Outlook - It's uncertain whether the Santa Claus rally will occur [10][11]

Bitcoin slips as record $28B Boxing Day options expiry becomes key volatility driver: analysts https://t.co/vOK6bfVhDL ...

Market Trends & Dynamics - Commodity markets are experiencing exponential and parabolic returns, indicating a late stage rally [1] - Gold is breaking all-time highs and trading at $4,500 [1] - Silver has increased by 40% in one month [1] - Platinum has increased by 40-50% in two weeks [1] - Increased volatility is observed in the commodity markets [1] - Harsh corrections are expected as part of the market cycle [1] Investment & Risk - Risk-on assets are not accelerating due to the current focus on commodities [2] - Current upward trends will not continue indefinitely [2]

Plus, Mackenzie Sagalas is [music] watching the volatility in crypto. Jar Jabosa is here with what is driving the moves in Uber and Lyft. Mac [music] to you first and crypto.>> Scott, Bitcoin and altcoins like XRP and Salana are in the red. Ether slipping below that 3K mark and Bitcoin trading under 89,000. It's about 30% off its October all-time high.Spot bitcoin ETFs still aren't offering much support. Institutional flows remain soft. And even with the Fed now cutting rates, risk appetite is cautious in t ...

Market Performance & Expectations - 2023年回报率为24%，2024年为23%，今年（指2025年）为17%，预计明年仍有可能实现两位数增长 [1] - 过去100年中，市场曾有12次连续三年实现20%收益的情况 [1] - 全球市场有一半的时间在收益增长年份的次年表现更好，因此预计明年牛市周期可能延续，但上半年波动性较大 [2] - 预计GDP增长强劲，美联储立场温和，估值合理，最终市场表现强劲 [2] - 市场低估了宏观风险，包括USMCA（美国-墨西哥-加拿大协议）和美联储的过渡 [6] Economic Factors & Influences - 特朗普关税可能被推翻，可能出现政府长期停摆，新任美联储主席的提名和确认需要3个月，这些都可能引发争议 [3] - 经济基础稳固，每周首次申请失业救济金的数据令人鼓舞 [3] - 通货膨胀略有好转，H8美联储贷款增长达到9周以来的最高水平，贷款增长处于历史最高水平，这对整体经济活动非常有利 [4] - 工业金属价格处于历史高位，包括美联储在内的全球央行越来越接近中性利率 [4] - 美联储降息需要一段时间才能产生影响，预计对明年有利 [4] - 150亿到1750亿美元的资金将流入消费者和美国企业手中，企业资本支出将持续 [5] - 人工智能基础设施资本支出周期预计在2026年不会改变，并推动了大约四分之三的GDP增长 [10] Earnings Growth & Valuation - 预计盈利将实现两位数增长，虽然有些预测偏高（如16%-17%），但预计将达到较低的两位数 [5] - 高个位数增长是合理的，目前还无法达到10%-12%-15% [6] - 如果经济增长2.5%-3%，通常会带来10%的盈利增长，预计会更高，且利率、汽油价格和鸡蛋价格都会降低 [12] - 如果盈利以两位数增长，那么估值非常有吸引力，尤其是在其他领域 [12] Potential Risks & Volatility - 上半年市场波动性将比过去一段时间更大 [6] - 企业在经历了今年（指2025年）的良好表现后，可能会下调预期，从而给市场带来一些波动 [8] - 股票市场或信贷市场上的风险定价非常昂贵，稍有风吹草动就会造成影响 [8] - 消费者具有韧性，但主要是高端消费，而非低端消费 [10] - 总是存在担忧，当不再担忧时，意味着市场自满 [11]

CBOE Performance & Strategy - CBOE has underperformed relative to its industry and the financial sector despite good earnings [2] - The speaker decided to "ring the register" (sell) CBOE due to this underperformance, but believes it will be fine in 2026 [2][5] - Morgan Stanley has reiterated their underweight rating on CBOE [5] - The speaker still owns CME Group and NASDAQ [4] Market Outlook & Volatility - The speaker anticipates volatility will increase substantially in 2026, even in a bull market, suggesting not to be short volatility [3] - The VIX is currently near a low for the year, below 15 [2] Exchange Preferences & Drivers - The speaker favors NASDAQ, describing it as a "crown jewel" due to benefits from IPOs, data, listing activity, and trading [6][8] - Increased activity is seen as a key driver for exchanges, with volatility being particularly beneficial for CBOE [7] Analyst Ratings & Targets - Morgan Stanley reiterated overweight on NASDAQ with a target of $111 [6] - CME Group reiterated overweight with a target of $320 [6] - Schwab reiterated overweight with a target of $148 [6]