Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said monetary policy remains restrictive and that he will continue to advocate for further easing https://t.co/HVbp8TSuOo ...

The European Central Bank’s monetary policy is well positioned but could yet shift as officials grapple with risks including those emanating from financial markets, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said https://t.co/soLqabgkev ...

Fed Policy & Market Outlook - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but the possibility of a further rate cut in December is uncertain due to differing views within the committee [1] - Markets may have been overly optimistic about future rate cuts, as the Fed aims to maintain control over outcomes rather than being driven by market expectations [6][7] - The Fed acknowledges dissension within its ranks, stemming from differing tolerances for inflation above the 2% target and unacceptably high unemployment [5][15] Stagflation Concerns - There are concerns about a potential mild stagflation scenario, with a weakening job market and inflation stuck around 3% year-over-year [8][9] - Inflation remains well above the 2% target, and the labor market's weakness presents a mystery regarding the balance between supply and demand factors [10] - Monetary policy may have limited ability to address labor market issues primarily driven by supply-side factors like declining labor force participation and reduced immigration [10] AI & Economic Impact - The Fed acknowledges the limitations of its tools in addressing specific unemployment issues, particularly those potentially caused by AI-driven layoffs [12][13] - The impact of AI on employment is not yet evident in aggregate data, but the Fed is monitoring the situation [15] - The Fed's tools are too blunt to effectively tamp down on potentially excessive capital expenditure in the AI space, which is driven by expectations of high returns [16][17]

Market Bubble Concerns - A composite bubble indicator suggests a relatively high level of bubble activity in the market [1] - Bubbles are unlikely to burst unless monetary policy tightens, but current trends suggest easing rates are more probable [2] - The divergence in the economy, with weakening elements alongside bubble development, complicates monetary policy [4] - The current situation is reminiscent of market conditions before crashes in 1998-99 and 1927-28 [4] - The industry acknowledges significant risks, even if the exact timing of a potential bubble burst is uncertain [7] Unicorn Valuation and Financing - Unicorns may raise, for example, $100 million but be valued at $1 billion, creating a perception of wealth that isn't fully realized in cash transactions [5] - This inflated valuation can become its own form of "money" within the ecosystem [6] AI and Technology Risks - The rapid obsolescence of GPUs and the evolving landscape of data centers present risks in the AI sector [6]

Do you think that concentration is is indicative of a bubble. >> This is the big question, right. Um >> I know eager to hear your thoughts.>> There's a um there's a lot of bubble stuff going on. I have a bubble indicator um which is a composite of things that would take you too long to explain. And the bubble indicator is relatively high.It has to do not only with the pricing, has to do with who owns it, how the financing is taking place and so on. And it's a relatively high uh um level of of of bubble. Um ...

Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - The market feels like 1999, suggesting a potential for significant price appreciation, similar to the NASDAQ doubling between October 1999 and March 2000 [3][4] - Investors should position themselves as if it's October 1999, but be prepared to exit the market quickly [4][5] - The greatest price appreciation typically occurs in the 12 months leading up to the market peak [5][6] - A "blowoff" is anticipated, potentially more explosive than 1999 due to current monetary and fiscal policies [6][7] - Current fiscal and monetary conditions, featuring a budget deficit of 6%, are reminiscent of the post-war period of the early 1950s [8][9] - The market is conducive to massive price appreciation in various assets, but requires increased retail buying and recruitment from hedge funds and real money [10][11][12] Investment Recommendations - Investors should consider positions in gold, crypto, and the NASDAQ [14][15] - The biggest winners in the market are signaling an inflation story, with gold up approximately 46-47%, Bitcoin up approximately 50-60%, and a Morgan Stanley retail flow basket (meme stocks) up approximately 67-68% [13] Risk Assessment - The circularity of certain deals, such as the Open AI deal with AMD, raises concerns [13] - Leverage, including margin debt and leveraged ETFs, is currently elevated compared to October 1999 levels [11]

Friday's cooler thanex expected CPI print is boosting expectations for the Fed to trim rates by a quarter point at this week's meeting. Joining us right now is former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester. She's also a CNBC contributor.And Loretta, what do you think. The the numbers were a little weaker than anticipated, but you're still looking at uh inflation up better than 3% on a year-over-year basis. >> Yeah, Becky, thanks.Good morning. You're you're exactly right. If you looked at the headlines comin ...

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold interest rates on Thursday at its first meeting since Sanae Takaichi, an advocate of easy monetary policy, became prime minister https://t.co/FR5jXYKGJ0 ...

Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - Trump's monetary policy desires regarding interest rates and Federal Reserve independence should be taken seriously [1] - The idea of having the reserve currency is also a key consideration [1]

Focusing on the natural rate of interest is important not just to get monetary policy right, but also to confront the fiscal pit we're digging, says @Clive_Crook (via @opinion) https://t.co/FNDt4pd9RZ ...