Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave the policy interest rate unchanged, believing the current stance is well-positioned to respond to potential economic developments [2] - The committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4 and 1/4 to 4 and 1/2% and to continue reducing the size of the balance sheet [8] - The current policy stance is seen as appropriate to guard against inflation risks [10] Economic Activity - Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has moderated [3] - GDP rose at a 12% pace in the first half of this year, down from 25% last year [3] - Payroll job gains averaged 150000 per month over the past 3 months, with the unemployment rate at 41% remaining low [4] - Business investment in equipment and intangibles picked up from last year's pace, while activity in the housing sector remains weak [4] Inflation - Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022, but remains somewhat elevated relative to the 2% longer-run goal [5] - Total PCE prices rose 25% over the 12 months ending in June, and core PCE prices rose 27% [6] - Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up on balance over the course of this year on news about tariffs [7] - Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen [9] Labor Market - Conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance and consistent with maximum employment [5] - Wage growth has continued to moderate while still outpacing inflation [5]

Economic Overview - Pre-market futures show slight increases with Dow up +20 points, S&P 500 up +8, and Nasdaq up +50, following positive economic news [1] - Q2 GDP growth outperformed expectations at +3.0%, rebounding from a -0.5% decline in Q1, marking the strongest quarter for jobs growth since Q3 2024 [7][8] - Consumption increased to +1.4% from +0.5% in Q1, while the Core PCE Price Index rose to +2.5%, indicating robust economic growth without runaway inflation [8][10] Employment Data - ADP reported +104K new private-sector jobs in July, a significant recovery from the revised -23K in June and exceeding the consensus estimate of +64K [3][6] - Job growth was led by the Leisure & Hospitality sector with +46K jobs, while Education & Healthcare saw a decline of -38K [4] - Small companies added +12K jobs, while medium and large businesses contributed +46K jobs, indicating a diverse hiring landscape [5] Company Earnings - Kraft Heinz (KHC) exceeded earnings expectations by +7.8%, reporting 69 cents per share [2] - V.F. Corp. (VFC) reported a smaller-than-expected loss, improving by +31.5% [2] - Etsy (ETSY) missed earnings estimates by -53.7%, indicating potential challenges in its business model [2] Market Expectations - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain interest rates at +4.25-4.50% during its meeting, reflecting a stable economic environment [10] - The upcoming earnings reports from major companies like Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Qualcomm, and Ford are anticipated to impact market sentiment [12]

What kind of agreement can we make today at the Federal Reserve. What can we agree on. You be really interesting to see if the committee is getting more comfortable, having more conviction in there.You know, forecast that inflation may rise this year, but then, you know, come back down. So I think a lot of this discussion around what are the risks of the persistently high inflation. We know from Governor Chris Warren that he sees those risks as very low and that's why he's in favor of a cut.But is the commi ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US economy grew 3% in Q2, beating expectations. ...

Treasuries fell after fresh data showed US economic growth strengthened in the three months ending in June. https://t.co/k07vzIaE4z ...

Breaking: The U.S. economy returned to growth last quarter, with GDP increasing at a 3% annualized rate, largely due to trade swings https://t.co/uoElXBBB6u ...

RT Daniel Priestley (@DanielPriestley)Billionaire hedge fund manager @RayDalio has said the UK is in a debt doom loop.The government has 101% of debt to GDP ratio. It spends 45% of GDP. It borrows to pay interest payments. This is wildly unsustainable and irresponsible.The doom loop bit happens when the government raises taxes to fund debt, higher taxes reduce growth, reduced growth reduces investment, reduced investment causes wealth creators to leave and the 1% who pay 30% of the taxes pull away from the ...

Hungary’s economy eked out economic growth in the second quarter, averting a recession but underscoring Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s challenge before next year’s elections https://t.co/0IbhgiyFrf ...

French economic growth unexpectedly accelerated in the second quarter as inventory building offset weak domestic demand and foreign trade https://t.co/GSwtOjwMAI ...

We imagine the consequences if advances towards artificial superintelligence cause economic growth to explode. Wealth could accumulate at unprecedented speed https://t.co/rSKH16dxzu ...