Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintains a "wait and see" approach, with expectations of eventual rate cuts, but less aggressively than previously anticipated [2] - The market is data-dependent, with the possibility of the Federal Reserve not cutting rates this year [2] - Tariffs and higher oil prices could lead to underestimation of inflation [3] - A weaker labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to move more quickly towards lower rates [11] - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve to act on data in September, considering inflation and employment data [13] Bond Market Dynamics - Investors require a higher term premium to hold U S debt [3] - Foreign buyers of Treasury bills are holding the line despite tariff concerns [6] - The 10-year Treasury is relatively attractive, while the 30-year Treasury above 5% would be interesting [18][19] - The treasury may change the dynamics around supply [20] - Single B bonds present opportunities for compression ahead [48] Credit Market & Investment Strategies - Credit spreads have recovered to pre-stress levels, with a preference for double B bonds over triple B bonds for excess carry [32] - Expectation of spread widening over the summer due to slowing growth data and the Federal Reserve remaining on hold [34][35] - Focus on high-quality fixed income due to uncertainty from tariffs, weather, and fiscal policy [36] - Mounting risks are being digested due to high starting yield levels, making fixed income attractive from a risk-adjusted perspective [39] - The market favors shortening duration and the belly of the curve (five to seven year) in investment grade [43][44] Specific Company & Market Events - X AI, Elon Musk's startup, is raising $900 million in debt and equity, offering sweeter pricing on the $5 billion debt part due to burning through $1 billion a month [31] - UnitedHealth and Enbridge had top deals, driving volume to about $18 billion [30] - Key economic data to watch includes the Consumer Price Inflation report and Jay Powell's testimony on Capitol Hill [50][51]

All right, your first guest today says that if we get lower rates, again, big if, it could bring new buyers into housing and some housing related stock. For more, let's bring in Charlie Brinsko, he is vice chairman of Aerial Investments. Charlie, it's great to have you on.I mean, you just heard Steve's comments. Listen, what the Fed does and what the bond market does can ultimately be different things as we are kind of finding out. The Fed cut last year, bond yields rose.What do you think would happen to ac ...

CarMax is higher. Uh the earnings, revenue beat, comp sales were good. Jenny, that's you.Yeah. So, it's interesting. So, it's still down about 10%.This is in our growth portfolio. I think it's a fantastic buy here. And the reason I mentioned the down 10% is because it hasn't run so much this year.So, where you stand is retail sales came in at plus 9%, gross profit was up 13%. And what's what's I think the most compelling part is that as tariffs do kick in and cars get more expensive, new cars get more expen ...

Front and center this hour, stocks searching for direction following the Fed meeting and that uncertainty over Iran. We'll trade all of it with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour today, Josh Brown, Stephanie Link, Jenny Harrington, Jason Snipe, our senior economics correspondent, Steve Leeman is with us as well as we check the markets here.We are mixed across the board. So, we're thinking about the Middle East. We're apparently two weeks away from any kind of decision there according to the p ...

Core Insights - Home Depot Inc. is experiencing strength in smaller-scale DIY and maintenance projects, but a revival in big-ticket remodel and renovation spending is necessary for sustained top-line growth [1][3] - Big-ticket sales grew only 0.3% in Q1 fiscal 2025, contributing to a 0.3% decline in overall comparable sales, with U.S. comps up just 0.2% [2][9] - The company anticipates continued pressure on big-ticket renovations due to no major improvement expected in interest rates or housing turnover in 2025 [3] Company Strategy - Home Depot is positioning itself to capture future spending surges through financing options for professionals and streamlined lending tools for consumers [4] - The company is maintaining high in-stock rates for building materials to fulfill large orders promptly when market conditions improve [4] Market Context - Competitors like Lowe's and Walmart are also facing challenges in big-ticket categories, with cautious consumer behavior impacting discretionary purchases [6][7][8] - A recovery in big-ticket demand is critical for both Home Depot and its competitors, as it can significantly influence overall revenues and growth strategies [7][8] Financial Performance - Home Depot's shares have declined 10.8% year-to-date, compared to a 13.9% decline in the industry [11] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Home Depot is 22.31X, higher than the industry's 19.68X, indicating a premium valuation [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings implies a year-over-year decline of 1.3%, while fiscal 2026 estimates indicate a growth of 9.2% [14]

Interest Rate Policy & Economic Outlook - Market anticipates approximately two rate cuts by year-end, while some Fed officials suggest potentially only one [1] - There's significant uncertainty and deteriorating sentiment in the economy, making it difficult for the Fed to balance monetary policy [2] - Political factors, including a new Fed chair, may lead to increased pressure for rate cuts due to the impact of interest rates on large debts [3] Impact of Rate Cuts - Lowering rates could reduce returns on assets, requiring interventions that devalue money [4] - Aggressive rate cuts could negatively impact the bond market [5] - Monitoring the yield curve, dollar movement, and gold prices can reflect shifts away from bonds due to concerns about the value of money [6] Monetary Policy & Elections - Midterm elections and potential changes in monetary policy create a period of concern for the markets [5]

LOWER AT 3.5%, 76 $.06 AS POSSIBLY DIPLOMACY COULD RULE THE DAY. POWELL'S BIGGEST CRITIC. PRES.TRUMP: WE HAVE A STUPID PERSON AT THE FED. HE IS A POLITICAL GUY WHO'S NOT A SMART PERSON. WHAT I WILL DO, HE GETS OUT AND ABOUT NINE MONTHS.HE GETS TERMINATED. MAYBE I SHOULD GO TO THE FIT. MY ALLOWED TO APPOINT MYSELF AT THE FED.I WOULD DO A MUCH BETTER JOB. WE SHOULD BE TWO POINTS LOWER. LISA: PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP CONTINUING HIS CRITICISM OF THE FED CHAIR, WRITING ON TRUTH SOCIAL "TOO LATE JEROME POWELL IS CO ...

I'm pleased to uh bring in uh Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Uh he is um joining us this morning from Washington. Good morning, Governor Waller. Good morning, Steve.Thanks for having me on. Uh thank thanks for joining us. Um I just want to begin um big debate and you can see it in the outlook for rates at the at at uh from the uh summer of economic projections.Where do you stand in this debate right now over how much concern we all should have over coming potential inflation from tariffs. Steve, you know, ...

guest for us right now as well. >> Yeah. Andrew, I'm pleased to bring in Fed Governor Christopher Waller.He is joining us this morning from Washington. Good morning, Governor Waller. >> Good morning Steve.Thanks for having me on. >> Thanks for joining us. I just want to begin big debate, and you can see it in the outlook for rates at the from the some of economic projections.Where do you stand in this debate right now over how much concern we all should have over coming potential inflation from tariffs. >> ...

Treasuries right now, though well-behaved with the ten year at 4.41% on Wednesday, the fed, as you know, left rates unchanged as widely expected to continue to pencil in two rate cuts by the end of the year, while also hinting at concerns about stagflation. For more, let's bring in Roger Ferguson, former fed vice chair, as well as a CNBC contributor. And when we're when we're on hold and we have you on, Roger, we've always got a lot to talk about, but sometimes it seems like we're talking about the same thi ...