Economic Growth - China's GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.8% in Q3 2025, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter [1] - Analysts predict that fixed-asset investment will only expand by 0.1% in the first nine months of the year [2] Retail and Industrial Performance - Retail sales are anticipated to slow to 3% year-on-year in September [2] - Industrial production is likely to ease to 5% [2] Inflation Trends - The core consumer price index rose at its fastest pace since February 2024, indicating some inflationary pressure [3] - However, headline inflation fell by 0.3%, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures [3] Export Resilience - Despite ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., China's exports have shown continued resilience [2]

US-China Relations - Trump 政府对与中国的关系持乐观态度，可能与中国国家主席习近平在韩国会晤 [1][2] - 美国财政部长 Scott Besson 宣布了一系列会谈，为两国领导人会晤做准备 [3] - 虽然 Trump 政府并未取消对中国稀土矿物加征 100% 关税的可能性，但整体信息偏向积极 [4] Russian Oil & Diplomacy - Trump 宣称印度将停止购买俄罗斯石油，以此向俄罗斯施压以结束乌克兰战争，但印度官方未证实 [7][8][32][33] - 印度官员正在与美国讨论取消对俄罗斯石油的 25% 关税 [10][37] Government Shutdown - 美国政府部分关闭已持续 17 天，成为历时最长的完整政府关闭 [11][12] - 预计政府关闭可能会持续到 11 月，因为两党在 ACA 补贴问题上立场坚定 [15][19] - 政府关闭可能导致机场中断，类似于 2018-2019 年的政府关闭 [17] - 经济影响可能包括消费者支出变化和 GDP 下降，如果持续到 11 月，GDP 可能会下降一个百分点 [22][24] - 政府关闭导致数据收集和发布中断，这可能会使美联储的决策变得更加困难 [25] - 法院初步裁决暂停了 Trump 政府在政府关闭期间的裁员计划 [39][40] Economic Outlook - 经济学家普遍上调了今年的增长预期，经通胀调整后的 GDP 预计为 18%，高于 6 月份的 13% [56] - 关税可能会推高消费者价格，从而降低收入，并可能导致美国和全球经济增长放缓 [49][47] - 经济学家认为，即使经济面临压力，美国经济也具有弹性，增长预测也随之提高 [58]

China’s economy probably grew at the slowest in a year last quarter despite a boom in exports, in a disconnect the Communist Party may move to rectify at a key meeting this week https://t.co/zmLFZhqI8c ...

Britain’s decision to leave the European Union will continue to weigh on UK growth for several years, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said. https://t.co/36Lbaf2BJ7 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) compressed by about 8 basis points due to front-loading of interest rate cuts on the asset side of the balance sheet [6] - The capital adequacy ratio remained stable at around 19.9% to 20% with a slight change of 10 basis points [31] - The bank's return on assets (ROA) has been operating between 1.8% to 1.95% over the last eight quarters [56] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth has accelerated across segments, with a focus on disciplined pricing and market share gains in deposits [6][8] - The bank's contingent provisions increased by about INR 1,600 crore, enhancing resilience [11][65] - Fee income grew by approximately 9%, indicating consistent growth across various products [41] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) started the year at about 96 and is expected to decrease below 90 as part of the strategic objectives [20] - Retail deposits accounted for about 83% of total deposits, with a slight increase in the proportion of retail deposits during the quarter [38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The bank continues to invest in technology and distribution to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [7][49] - The strategy includes maintaining credit standards while participating in growth opportunities in unsecured loans and mortgages [71] - The bank aims to grow faster than the market in FY 2027, with a focus on sustainable growth and capital consumption [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The domestic economy is showing signs of strength, supported by fiscal and monetary measures, which is expected to boost loan growth [5] - Management expressed optimism about the economic cycle and its sustainability beyond the festive period [28] - The bank is focused on maintaining asset quality and managing expenses tightly to create operating leverage [6][8] Other Important Information - The bank is exploring opportunities for cross-border transactions following recent regulatory relaxations [90] - The bank's home loan segment has seen improvements in turnaround times, now at two days for individual loans and three days for self-employed [50] Q&A Session Summary Question: Recovery in NPL movement - Management indicated that recoveries were boosted by a one-off upgrade contributing approximately 10 basis points to the NPL ratio [11][14] Question: Guidance on margins - The bank expects exit margins to improve, with stable rates anticipated to positively impact margins over the next few quarters [19] Question: Deposit growth and LDR - The bank's strategic objective is to reduce LDR below 90 while growing in line with the market [20][21] Question: Capital adequacy and growth - Management confirmed that the bank has sufficient capital for three to four years of growth, with a focus on maintaining higher capital levels for unforeseen risks [29][31] Question: Personal loans and risk appetite - The bank maintains strict credit standards and is cautiously optimistic about growth in unsecured loans [71] Question: Home loans and market share - The bank aims to grow its home loan segment without compromising on margins, focusing on long-term customer relationships [74] Question: Gold loans and yields - Yields on gold loans remain attractive, and the bank is cautious about maintaining clarity in terms with clients [76] Question: Credit card growth - The bank has seen a tepid addition to net receivables due to selective participation in spending during festive periods [82] Question: SME loan opportunities - There is a positive outlook for SME loans, with actual credit demand increasing in that segment [89]

According to Frank Ramsey’s canonical model of economic growth, faster expected growth makes savings fall because people think they will be richer tomorrow. The effect is global—and can be painful, one expert explains https://t.co/HXPTX2o5Q9 ...

RT auspill (@aus_pill)Australia has recorded its lowest ever birth rates, again.At the same time, record levels of immigrants continue to pour into the country.But not only is immigration making Aussies poorer, it’s directly correlated with declining birth rates.Research shows immigration itself is a factor behind declining birth rates - it contributes significantly to unaffordable housing, stagnant wage growth, and decreased productivity - all factors researchers have identified as key reasons Australians ...

New technology is hardly the only driver of economic growth. Just ask the banks, which reported impressive quarterly earnings. ...

The research for which Joel Mokyr was awarded the prize money deals with a question that will never get a fully satisfactory answer: why do economies grow? https://t.co/mlL67gBgFP ...

The Bank of Italy cuts its growth forecast for next year to just 0.6% https://t.co/kePleapxjr ...