In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.A reasonable base case is that the effects of tariffs on inflation will be relatively short-lived, effectively a one-time shift in the price level. Our obligation is to make sure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3% to 3.75%, reflecting a balanced approach to managing employment and inflation risks [1][3]. Monetary Policy Adjustments - The committee acknowledges that there are no risk-free paths for policy as it navigates the tension between employment and inflation goals, indicating that the effects of tariffs on inflation are expected to be short-lived [2]. - The recent adjustments to the policy stance are aimed at stabilizing the labor market while allowing inflation to trend down towards the 2% target once tariff effects dissipate [4]. - The median projection for the federal funds rate is 3.4% at the end of 2026 and 3.1% at the end of 2027, remaining unchanged from previous estimates [5]. Implementation of Monetary Policy - The committee has initiated purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities, primarily Treasury bills, to maintain an ample supply of reserves over time, with an initial purchase amount of $40 billion in the first month [6][7]. - The implementation framework indicates that an ample supply of reserves allows the federal funds rate to be primarily controlled by administered rates rather than daily market interventions [8]. - The committee has eliminated the aggregate limit on standing repo operations to support monetary policy implementation and ensure the federal funds rate remains within its target range [8][9]. Commitment to Goals - The Federal Reserve remains committed to achieving maximum employment and stable prices, recognizing the impact of its actions on communities, families, and businesses across the country [9][10].

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today's meeting, the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3 to 3 and 3/4%. In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks risks to employment to the downside, a challenging situation.There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower the policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point to support employment and inflation goals, while also initiating purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities to maintain an ample supply of reserves [2] Economic Activity - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with solid consumer spending and continued growth in business fixed investment [3] - The housing sector remains weak, and the temporary federal government shutdown has negatively impacted economic activity, though growth is expected to rebound next quarter [4] Labor Market - Despite delays in official employment data, evidence indicates low levels of layoffs and hiring, with perceptions of job availability declining [5] - The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.4%, with job gains slowing significantly, attributed to a decline in labor force growth due to lower immigration and participation [5][6] - The median projection for the unemployment rate is 4.5% at the end of this year, with a slight decrease expected thereafter [6] Inflation - Inflation has eased from mid-2022 highs but remains elevated, with total PCE prices rising 2.8% over the 12 months ending in September [7] - Core PCE prices also rose 2.8%, with inflation for goods increasing due to tariffs, while disinflation in services continues [8] - The median projection for total PCE inflation is 2.9% this year and 2.4% next year, with a long-term goal of 2% [9]

Economic Outlook - The economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with solid consumer spending and business fixed investment [3] - The temporary government shutdown likely weighed on economic activity in the current quarter, but these effects should be mostly offset by higher growth next quarter [4] - Real GDP is projected to rise 17% this year and 23% next year, somewhat stronger than projected in September [4] Labor Market - Labor market conditions appear to be gradually cooling [1] - Layoffs and hiring remain low, and perceptions of job availability and hiring difficulty have declined [5] - The unemployment rate reached 44% in September, and job gains have slowed significantly [5] - The median projection of the unemployment rate is 45% at the end of this year and edges down thereafter [6] Inflation - Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022, but remains somewhat elevated relative to the 2% longerrun goal [7] - Total PCE prices rose 28% over the 12 months ending in September, and core PCE prices also rose 28% [7] - Near-term measures of inflation expectations have declined from their peaks earlier in the year [8] - The median projection for total PCE inflation is 29% this year and 24% next year, a bit lower than the median projection in September, thereafter, the median falls to 2% [9] Monetary Policy - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower the policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point (025%) [2] - The Committee also decided to initiate purchases of shorterterm Treasury securities solely for the purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves [2]

But I want to lay out the argument for the Fed to do something different. I want to actually argue that they should make a 50 basis point cut. So first, we know the labor market is softening.We see that the fears are rising that a broader slowdown or recession could happen if we don't aggressively address the situation. Non-farm payrolls, they added only 119,000 jobs in September. It's a sharp deceleration from post-pandemic averages and the report came in below economic expectation.So due to this decelerat ...

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan Global Data Watch Industry Overview - The report discusses the global economy, highlighting a growth trajectory that is above potential, with GDP expected to exceed forecasts in the upcoming quarter [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth vs. Labor Market**: There is a noted tension between strong output growth and soft labor markets, which is unsustainable without either increased hiring or a slowdown in growth [1]. The expectation is for a rebound in hiring, supported by consumer spending and fiscal/monetary policies, leading to a more balanced economic expansion in the first half of 2026 [1]. - **Global Composite PMI**: The J.P. Morgan global composite PMI indicates a potential annualized GDP growth of nearly 3%, which is over a percentage point stronger than previous projections [2]. The manufacturing PMI suggests a 1.3% annual rise in global industry, with a positive trend in orders relative to inventories [2]. - **Business Spending**: Mixed signals are present regarding business spending, with U.S. Fed regional surveys showing an uptick in capital expenditure, while the global investment goods PMI fell below the neutral mark [3]. This has led to a stall in the global capex nowcaster for the first time since the beginning of the year [3]. - **Employment Trends**: The global employment PMI has decreased, indicating weak job growth, particularly in the U.S., where a significant drop in private hiring was reported [10]. However, a decrease in unemployment insurance claims is a positive sign [10]. - **Consumer Spending**: Real consumer spending in the U.S. was softer than expected, with a flat report for September and a downward revision for August [11]. Despite this, there were rebounds in Chase card data and auto sales in October and November, indicating some resilience [11]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The report anticipates a variety of outcomes from central banks as the global easing cycle concludes. Expectations include one rate hike, eight cuts, and twelve holds by year-end [13]. The Fed is expected to signal a cautious approach to future cuts, while the Bank of Japan is anticipated to hike rates due to fiscal policy changes [16]. Additional Important Insights - **Euro Area Resilience**: The Euro area shows signs of resilience, with upward revisions to PMI and GDP growth, indicating a growth rate of 1.6% annualized [18]. Despite trade war impacts, fiscal easing in Germany is expected to bolster growth [18]. - **China's Economic Signals**: China's PMIs suggest a year-end recovery, with positive signals from new export orders and construction PMIs, although services have softened [21]. The forecast for GDP growth in Q4 is 3.0% quarter-over-quarter [21]. - **Trade Agreements**: The status of the USMCA renewal is uncertain, with potential delays in legislative approval until 2027, despite expectations for a preliminary agreement [23]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Global Data Watch, focusing on the global economic outlook, labor market dynamics, consumer spending trends, and central bank policies, while also highlighting regional insights and trade considerations.

Artificial intelligence has created a “terrifying” outlook for employment, Oaktree Capital Management co-founder Howard Marks cautioned, and an assumed productivity boom fails to consider how many people will be able to afford the additional goods produced https://t.co/VZNkoRvw0W ...

The city’s Goldilocks status as an employer magnet with still-reasonable housing is now on shaky ground. https://t.co/Mvxkgr8gGz ...

Industry Concerns Regarding Potential Acquisition - The film industry is experiencing a major depression with decreased competition, fewer productions, and declining box office attendance [4] - There is significant worry in Hollywood about job retention and production capability following potential acquisitions [7] - Concerns exist regarding the impartiality of regulators' decisions, particularly concerning potential influence from Donald Trump's connections [10] - Anxiety exists within Hollywood's creative sector regarding potential acquisitions, as each company presents unique challenges [10] - There are fears about financial consolidation and the potential collapse of the film industry [13] Potential Impacts of Consolidation - Consolidations in various industries, including film, often lead to thousands of job losses and reduced competitiveness [3] - Consolidations may result in higher prices for consumers [3] - The industry is already weak, raising questions about whether Netflix is a savior or a threat [5] Considerations for the Future - The industry seeks clarity on plans for job retention and production capability from potential acquirers [6] - There is a need to bring jobs and production shoots back to the United States from overseas competition [7] - Freedom of expression for creatives and journalists is crucial, without fear of reprisal [12][13]