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Monetary Policy Debate - The market initially anticipated a more dovish stance, but the October meeting minutes revealed a potentially more hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve [1] - A significant debate occurred regarding the October rate cut and potential December cuts, indicating internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve [1][5] - Many participants suggested maintaining the funds rate unchanged for the remainder of the year, while only a few supported further rate cuts [1] Inflation and Employment Concerns - Most participants were concerned that rate cuts could exacerbate the risk of entrenched higher inflation [2] - There was general agreement that upside risks to inflation were elevated, and downside risks to employment were also elevated [2] - Some favored lowering the target due to downside risks to employment and little change or diminishing inflation [3] Economic Assessment - Some participants believed that progress toward the 2% inflation target had stalled, or that inflation had actually increased, leading to a lack of confidence in achieving the target [4] - The Federal Reserve debated the restrictiveness of the current policy relative to the neutral rate, with some arguing it remained restrictive even after a 0.25% point cut [4] - Others viewed the economy as resilient, with supportive financial market conditions and no clear indication that the Federal Reserve's policy was restrictive [5]

Job Market Challenges - Certain majors, including anthropology, physics, computer engineering, commercial art and graphic design, or fine arts, may face difficulties in securing employment after graduation [1] Career Guidance - The report provides tips for graduates with these majors to improve their chances of finding a job [1]

Economic Overview - The recent government shutdown has created a significant data gap, complicating economic assessments and Federal Reserve decisions [1][2][10][11] - The return of government workers is expected to lead to a flood of economic data, which is crucial for market and policy analysis [2][12] Employment - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report is a key indicator of the labor market and household earnings, essential for forecasting economic activity [3] - The August jobs report indicated job gains fell to 22,000, missing the consensus of 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [6] - The labor market's stability is under scrutiny, especially with rising unemployment risks highlighted by the Federal Reserve [6] Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a critical measure of price stability, with the latest report showing a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, driven by energy costs, while Core CPI also cooled to 3.0% [4][7] - The Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions is hindered by the lack of recent CPI data, particularly as inflation pressures may be easing [7][10] Retail Sales - Retail sales data is vital as consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the economy, with retail sales representing nearly one-third of that [5] - August retail sales exceeded expectations, rising 0.6% month-over-month, indicating underlying consumer momentum despite concerns over rising credit card debt and dwindling savings [7] Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - GDP is a key quarterly indicator of economic activity, with the second quarter showing a real GDP increase at an annual rate of 3.8%, surpassing the forecast of 3.3% [8][14] - The upcoming third-quarter GDP estimate will provide insights into economic momentum prior to the shutdown [14] Private Data Insights - Despite the shutdown, private data collection continued, suggesting a weak economic forecast, which may impact the interpretation of upcoming reports [9] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent decisions have been made without complete data, leading to a reactionary stance rather than a proactive approach [10][12] - The delay in data reporting increases the risk of policy errors as the Fed navigates a complex economic landscape [12]

The Reserve Bank of Australia pursues a flexible approach to its dual mandate of sustaining employment and reining in inflation, board member Renee Fry-McKibbin wrote in a column in the Australian Financial Review that pushed back at recent commentary https://t.co/g2mm0ygNsq ...

Employment Impact - Study asserts AI's impact on employment is negligible [1]

Labor Market Overview - In 2024, 214万 (2.14 million) students graduated with bachelor's degrees [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that only 86万8千 (868k) of these graduates were employed by October 2024 [1] - Approximately 60% of Gen Z graduates were unable to find employment [1] H-1B Visa Impact - 行业观察到当年批准了 39万9千395 (399,395) 个 H-1B 签证 [1] - 行业分析认为，有 39万9千395 (399,395) 名外国人从 127万2千 (1,272,000) 美国人手中获得了工作 [1] Socioeconomic Concerns - 行业注意到，Z 世代对就业形势不满，同时面临 50 年期抵押贷款等问题 [1] - 行业呼吁结束 H-1B 签证项目 [1]

Employment Data & Reporting - September jobs report is expected to be released next week [1] - October employment report will be partially available, with payroll site data calculable but household survey incomplete [1] - October unemployment rate will not be known [1] Employee Matters - Essential employees were brought back early to ensure furloughed employees received their checks promptly [2] - Aggressive efforts were made to expedite check delivery to employees [2]

Labor Market Analysis - The government shutdown in October has created uncertainty regarding the availability and quality of key economic data, specifically inflation and employment figures [1][2] - November employment data collection is delayed and may be of questionable quality due to the Thanksgiving holiday, impacting market understanding of the economy's health [3][4] - Alternative indicators suggest the labor market is holding up, with Brailio Labs showing an increase in total non-farm payrolls and jobless claims remaining low [5][6] - The economy is likely still performing adequately, but a clearer picture may take another month to emerge due to data collection disruptions [6] - Economists are widening their data sources due to the unavailability of regular data from the BLS, CPI, and non-farm payrolls [9] Economic Risks and Federal Reserve Implications - The consensus among economists leans towards labor weakness as a greater risk than higher inflation in the coming months [9] - Job growth slowdown in the past 6 months may be attributed to slowing immigration, impacting labor supply rather than labor demand [10][11] - The Federal Reserve published a paper expecting job growth over the next 12 months to be 30,000, a significant decline due to slowing immigration [12] - The Federal Reserve's ability to address the situation is limited if the issue is labor supply, as opposed to labor demand [13]

Core Viewpoint - Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins expresses reluctance to support further interest rate cuts due to high inflation and limited data availability caused by the government shutdown [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Collins indicates that it is likely appropriate to maintain current policy rates for some time to balance inflation and employment risks in a highly uncertain environment [2]. - Her comments reflect a hawkish stance within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), suggesting a divide among committee members regarding future rate cuts [2]. - Despite supporting a quarter percentage point rate cut in October, Collins warns that further easing could hinder efforts to reduce inflation [3]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - Collins highlights that while there is softness in the labor market, the risks of inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target necessitate caution [3]. - She notes that providing additional monetary support could risk slowing or stalling the return of inflation to target levels, especially given resilient demand [4]. - The ongoing government shutdown is impacting decision-making, with key reports on inflation and employment potentially unavailable for October [4][5]. Group 3: FOMC Voting Dynamics - The FOMC voted 10-2 in favor of the rate cut in October, with dissenting votes reflecting differing views on the extent of the reduction needed [5].