Summary of FOMC Meeting Minutes Industry Overview - The document pertains to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its assessment of the U.S. economy, particularly focusing on inflation and employment dynamics. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Inflation vs. Employment Risks** - A majority of FOMC participants viewed the upside risk to inflation as greater than the downside risk to employment. Some participants considered the risks to be roughly balanced, while a couple of participants highlighted the downside risk to employment as more significant [2][7]. 2. **Payroll Growth Data** - The FOMC meeting occurred before the July employment report, which indicated weaker-than-expected payroll growth. The 3-month average of payroll growth was 150,000 at the time of the meeting, compared to a revised figure of 35,000 now [2]. 3. **Expectations on Inflation** - Participants generally expected inflation to rise in the near term but expressed uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and persistence of tariff effects on prices. There was acknowledgment of potential lags between tariff increases and consumer price hikes due to various factors [3]. 4. **Tariff Impact on Prices** - Some participants noted that foreign exporters were absorbing a modest portion of the increased tariffs, while others anticipated that companies would increasingly pass these costs onto consumers over time. However, a few participants mentioned that companies were attempting to avoid raising prices due to weak final demand [3]. 5. **Economic Conditions** - The economy was considered to be at or near maximum employment, with a low unemployment rate. Some participants indicated that slower economic growth might lead to weaker labor market conditions, but others argued that this was not necessarily indicative of economic slack due to a decline in immigration affecting payroll growth [7]. 6. **Fed's Economic Forecast** - The Fed staff's economic forecast remained similar to the previous meeting, reflecting weaker-than-expected data and a slower pace of immigration. The staff projected a rise in the unemployment rate above the natural rate and a slight downgrade in inflation projections due to lower estimates of tariff passthrough to prices [7]. 7. **Balance Sheet and Monetary Policy** - The FOMC noted that the balance sheet runoff had proceeded smoothly, with reserves remaining abundant. Some participants expressed concerns that the rebuilding of the Treasury General Account could create pressures in money markets, but existing Fed tools could mitigate this [8]. 8. **Monetary Policy Framework Review** - The FOMC was close to finalizing changes to its monetary policy framework, with expectations to shift back to responding to deviations from maximum employment rather than just shortfalls, and to return to flexible inflation targeting as the main strategy [9]. Additional Important Content - The document includes various disclosures and regulatory information related to Goldman Sachs and its analysts, emphasizing the importance of considering this report as one factor in investment decisions [5][11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the FOMC meeting minutes, highlighting the ongoing concerns regarding inflation, employment, and the broader economic landscape.

Inflation & Employment - The Fed minutes indicate a divided open market committee regarding the greater risk between upside risk to inflation and downside risk to employment [1][2] - A majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of the two risks [1] - Several participants viewed the two risks as roughly balanced, while a couple considered downside risk to employment the more salient risk [2] - Inflation is somewhat above the 2% goal, and the unemployment rate remains low, with employment at or near estimates of maximum employment [3] - The Fed expects inflation to increase in the near term, with tariff effects becoming more apparent [4] Economic Outlook - Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated, and some participants mentioned indicators suggesting a softening in labor demand [3] - Growth of economic activity slowed in the first half of the year, and several participants expect growth to remain slow for the second half [6] - A decline in immigration is lowering both actual and potential output growth [6] - Increased use of AI in the workplace may lower employment going forward [6] Tariffs - Evidence suggests that domestic businesses and consumers are predominantly bearing the tariff costs [5][6] - A few participants noted that tariff-related factors could lead to stubbornly elevated inflation [5]

Too Late Powell focused more on transient inflation than bleeding jobsSad!*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone):*FED: MAJORITY SAW INFLATION RISK OUTWEIGHING EMPLOYMENT RISK ...

Inflation & Employment - The Fed minutes from the July meeting indicate a somewhat divided open market committee [1][2] - A majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of the two risks, while several viewed the two risks (inflation vs jobs) as roughly balanced [2] - A couple of participants considered downside risk to employment to be the more salient risk [2] - The Fed expects inflation to increase in the near term, with tariff effects becoming more apparent [4] - A few participants noted that tariff-related factors could lead to stubbornly elevated inflation [5] Economic Outlook - Participants observed that growth of economic activity slowed in the first half of the year, and several expect growth to remain slow for the second half [6] - Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated [3] - Some participants mentioned indicators could suggest a softening in labor demand [3] Key Factors - A decline in immigration is lowering both actual and potential output growth [6] - Increased use of AI in the workplace may lower employment going forward [6] - Evidence suggests that domestic businesses and consumers are predominantly bearing the tariff costs [5]

FOMC会议纪要解读 - 美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要显示，关税的影响可能需要更长时间才能显现[1][4] - 市场对资产估值过高的担忧日益增长，暗示美联储意识到股票和其他资产（如房地产）的增长速度过快，多数人难以负担[2][4] - 多数观点认为通货膨胀是比就业更大的风险[3][4] 就业数据与政策影响 - 会议纪要发布于就业数据修正之前，该修正显示失业人数大幅增加，这可能影响美联储后续的决策[1][3] - 关税最终将导致商品成本上涨，并可能因企业和生产层面的成本增加而降低消费者支出[2] - 修正后的就业数据可能促使美联储重新评估就业风险，尤其是在通货膨胀相对稳定的情况下[3] 未来展望 - 市场关注杰克逊霍尔会议，预计将提供关于未来货币政策方向的线索[4]

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The Fed faces a tug of war between employment/growth and inflation, striving to avoid stagflation [1] - Uncertainty prevails regarding which side (employment/growth vs inflation) poses a greater threat, leading the Fed to maintain current interest rates [2] - The Fed is potentially tilting towards a rate cut, possibly starting in September, influenced by recent softening employment numbers and declining workforce participation [3][4] - A 50 basis point cut is unlikely, as the Fed aims to maintain credibility and independence, and current data doesn't warrant such an aggressive move [6][9] - Employment data is the key indicator the Fed is closely monitoring to determine the timing and extent of potential rate cuts [12][13] Economic Factors & Market Dynamics - Tariffs' impact on inflation is still unfolding, with the value chain potentially absorbing some of the costs [11][12] - The US economy is viewed optimistically in the next 12-18 months, driven by innovation and significant investment in AI [15] - The US private sector and China are the primary forces driving AI development, with both vying for their standards to prevail [16][17] - AI has the potential to transform industries, job markets, and the central bank's reaction function, creating both winners and losers [19][20] - Breakthrough technologies like AI historically create more jobs over time, although the transition period may present employment challenges [21]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - The speaker initially anticipated rate cuts over the year, projecting inflation heading towards 2% with full employment, aligning with the FOMC's mandate [1] - Increased uncertainty and "dirt in the air," largely attributed to tariffs, have complicated the outlook [2] - The central bank is grappling with the possibility of a persistent inflation shock or stagflation, a scenario lacking a clear playbook [3] - The key question is whether the stagflationary shocks are temporary or ongoing due to new policy administrations [4] Economic Uncertainty - Tariffs are not a one-time price increase, unlike the initial theory suggested [2] - Determining a return to the pre-April 2nd path hinges on resolving the uncertainty surrounding stagflationary shocks and policy changes [4]

Employment Trends - "Mum jobs" (为有年幼子女的人群提供的灵活工作) 在中国数量增长[1] Social Commentary - 针对 "Mum jobs" 的负面评价或反对声浪也在增加[1]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data reinforces expectations of a rate cut, focusing on the magnitude rather than the likelihood [2] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is primarily driven by concerns about employment, despite stalled disinflation [2] Dual Mandate Considerations - The Fed's weighting of its dual mandate (employment and inflation) depends on proximity to goals; with inflation closer to target, employment concerns gain importance [4][5] - Historically, the Fed tends to act more decisively when concerned about employment [4] - Some Fed speakers express reservations about inflation remaining a persistent problem [6] Risks and Uncertainties - Tariffs potentially seeping into prices could cause inflation to rise, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [8] - The Fed is willing to accept stalled disinflation to a certain extent, but dislikes it, tempering enthusiasm for rate cuts [9]

Economic Data Impact - Major economic data released this morning has negatively impacted trading futures, with the Dow dropping from +3 points to -180 points, the S&P 500 from -1 to -30 points, and the Nasdaq from +7 to -140 points [1] Producer Price Index (PPI) - Headline PPI increased by 90 basis points from 0.0% to +0.9% for July, with core PPI also rising by 90 basis points month over month [2] - Year-over-year headline PPI reached +3.3%, up from an upwardly revised +2.4% for June, while core PPI soared to +3.7% [3] Jobless Claims - Weekly Jobless Claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, remaining below 230,000 for six consecutive weeks [5] - Continuing Claims stood at 1.953 million, down 15,000 from the previous week, marking the 12th consecutive week above 1.9 million [6] Earnings Reports - Deere & Co. reported fiscal Q3 earnings of $4.75 per share, beating consensus estimates by 7.8%, but shares fell by 6% due to softer full-year guidance [8] - JD.com reported earnings of 69 cents per share, a 38% positive surprise, while Weibo exceeded estimates by 100% with earnings of 54 cents per share [9]