January WTI crude oil (CLF26) today is down -0.21 (-0.35%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) is down -0.00195 (-1.04%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are slightly lower today due to a stronger dollar.  Also, there are hopes for an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war as the key parties trade various peace plans.  An end to the war could allow restrictions on Russian energy exports to be removed, boosting global oil supplies. More News from Barchart However, crude oil has support after Interfax today report ...

January WTI crude oil (CLF26) today is up +0.62 (+1.06%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) closed up +0.0316 (+1.73%). Crude oil and gasoline prices rallied to 1-week highs today as the decline in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 1.5-week low is bullish for energy prices.  Also, the concern that the Russian-Ukrainian war will continue supports crude prices.  Russian President Putin was vague when asked about US President Trump's proposal for ending the war, and European Commission Vice President Kallas said ...

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have reached 5-week lows due to expectations of increased global oil supplies following a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war and weaker-than-expected US economic data [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - January WTI crude oil closed down -0.89 (-1.51%) and January RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0235 (-1.29%) [1] - The decline in prices is attributed to expectations that lifting restrictions on Russian energy exports will boost global oil supplies [1][2] - A weaker US dollar limited losses in crude oil prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - US retail sales rose by +0.2% month-over-month in September, below the expected +0.4% [3] - ADP reported a decline in US private payrolls by an average of -13,500 per week for the four weeks ending November 8 [3] - The Conference Board's US consumer confidence index fell -6.8 to a 7-month low of 88.7, weaker than the expected 93.3 [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Reduced crude exports from Russia are supporting oil prices, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of November, the lowest in over 3 years [4] - Ukraine's targeting of Russian refineries has knocked out 13% to 20% of Russia's refining capacity, limiting production by up to 1.1 million bpd [4] - New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies and infrastructure have further curtailed Russian oil exports [4] Group 4: Supply Dynamics - Crude oil stored on stationary tankers rose by +9.7% week-over-week to 114.31 million barrels, the highest level in 2.25 years [5] - Ongoing geopolitical risks related to Russia and potential US military actions against Venezuela are providing underlying support for oil prices [5]

Group 1: Oil Price Movements - January WTI crude oil is down -1.37 (-2.33%) and January RBOB gasoline is down -0.0363 (-1.99%) [1] - Crude oil and gasoline prices have reached 5-week lows due to expectations of increased global oil supplies following a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war [1][2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Weaker-than-expected US economic data negatively impacts energy demand and crude prices, with September retail sales rising only +0.2% month-over-month, below the expected +0.4% [3] - The US private payrolls fell by an average of -13,500 per week in the four weeks ending November 8, indicating a slowdown in job growth [3] - The Conference Board's US November consumer confidence index fell -6.8 to a 7-month low of 88.7, weaker than the expected 93.3 [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Oil prices are supported by reduced crude exports from Russia, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first 15 days of November, the lowest in over 3 years [4] - Ukraine has targeted at least 28 Russian refineries, knocking out 13% to 20% of Russia's refining capacity by the end of October, which has curtailed production by as much as 1.1 million bpd [4] - New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies and infrastructure have further limited Russian oil exports [4] Group 4: Storage and Supply Dynamics - Crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +9.7% week-over-week to 114.31 million barrels, the highest level in 2.25 years [5] - Continued geopolitical risks related to Russia and the US military buildup for a possible attack on Venezuela, the world's 12th-largest oil producer, provide underlying support for oil prices [5]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have dropped to four-week lows, influenced by a strong dollar and geopolitical developments in Ukraine [2][3] - OPEC has revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, indicating an oversupply situation [5] - OPEC+ plans to increase production in December but will pause further hikes in early 2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus [6] Price Movements - January WTI crude oil is down by $1.23 (-2.08%) and January RBOB gasoline is down by $0.0362 (-1.96%) [1] - The dollar index has reached a 5.5-month high, contributing to bearish sentiment in energy prices [2] Geopolitical Factors - The potential for a peace plan in Ukraine has initially led to a drop in crude prices, although prices recovered after Ukraine and European allies rejected key points of the plan [2] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, including the seizure of an oil tanker by Iran and US military actions regarding Venezuela, continue to support oil prices [4] Supply Dynamics - Russian crude exports have decreased significantly, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in early November, the lowest in over three years [3] - Ukraine's targeting of Russian refineries has reduced Russia's refining capacity by 13% to 20%, impacting production by up to 1.1 million bpd [3] OPEC and Production Estimates - OPEC has identified a surplus of 500,000 bpd in global oil markets for Q3, a significant shift from a previously estimated deficit of 400,000 bpd [5] - OPEC's crude production increased by 50,000 bpd to 29.07 million bpd, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [6] - The IEA forecasts a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [6]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced a decline after an initial rally, with gasoline reaching a two-week low [2] - The drop in crude prices was influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the potential for a peace plan in Ukraine, which could lead to an easing of sanctions on Russian energy exports [4] - OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, indicating a shift in supply dynamics [7] Price Movements - December WTI crude oil closed down by $0.30 (-0.50%), while December RBOB gasoline fell by $0.0137 (-0.71%) [1] - Gasoline prices fell significantly, marking a two-week low, as crude prices faced downward pressure [2] Geopolitical Factors - Ukrainian President Zelenskiy's agreement to consider a US-Russia peace plan raised concerns about future sanctions on Russian oil, potentially increasing global oil supplies [4] - Continued geopolitical risks, including Iran's seizure of an oil tanker and US military actions regarding Venezuela, are providing underlying support for oil prices [6] Supply Dynamics - Russian crude exports have decreased, with Vortexa reporting a drop to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in early November, the lowest in over three years [5] - Ukraine's military actions have targeted Russian refineries, reducing Russia's refining capacity by 13% to 20% and limiting crude production by up to 1.1 million bpd [5] OPEC and Production Estimates - OPEC's recent revision indicates a surplus of 500,000 bpd in global oil markets for Q3, contrasting with a previous estimate of a 400,000 bpd deficit [7] - The EIA has also increased its 2025 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd, up from 13.53 million bpd [7]

December WTI crude oil (CLZ25) on Tuesday closed up +0.83 (+1.39%), and December RBOB gasoline (RBZ25) closed up +0.0092 (+0.46%). Crude oil prices recovered from early losses on Tuesday and moved higher after hawkish rhetoric by the European Union's top diplomat raised expectations that sanctions on Russian energy supplies will tighten.  Crude prices initially retreated on Tuesday after a selloff in the S&P 500 to a 1-month low sparked risk-off sentiment in asset markets.  Also, signs of weakness in the ...

Group 1: Crude Oil Market Dynamics - Crude oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks, including tensions with Russia, Iran's seizure of an oil tanker, and US military buildup regarding Venezuela [2] - Reduced crude exports from Russia due to Ukrainian attacks on refineries have limited Russia's export capabilities, with total seaborne fuel shipments dropping to 3.45 million bpd, the lowest in two months [3] - OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, now projecting a surplus of 500,000 bpd, influenced by increased US production and OPEC's own output [4] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 137,000 bpd for December but plans to pause further hikes in Q1-2026 due to an emerging global oil surplus [5] - OPEC's October crude production rose to 29.07 million bpd, the highest level in 2.5 years, as the group aims to restore a total of 2.2 million bpd cut earlier [5] - The IEA forecasts a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026, indicating ongoing challenges in balancing supply and demand [5]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced a rally, recovering from a previous sell-off, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [2][3][4] Group 1: Price Movements - December WTI crude oil closed up by $1.40 (+2.39%) and December RBOB gasoline closed up by $0.0519 (+2.65%) [1] - Crude prices fell to a three-week low earlier in the week due to OPEC's revised estimates indicating a surplus in the global oil market [5] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ukraine's drone and missile attacks on Russian oil export facilities have raised concerns about global oil supplies, supporting higher crude prices [2][4] - The Iranian seizure of an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman has further heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, contributing to the increase in crude prices [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Ukraine's attacks have targeted at least 28 Russian refineries, significantly reducing Russia's refining capacity by 13% to 20% and curbing production by up to 1.1 million bpd [4] - Russian crude exports have decreased to 3.45 million bpd, the lowest in two months, due to ongoing attacks and new sanctions from the US and EU [4] Group 4: Demand Factors - Despite bearish signals from Saudi Arabia lowering crude prices for Asia, demand from China remains strong, with crude imports rising by 3.1% year-on-year to 471 million metric tons [6]

Group 1 - Concerns over an AI bubble have resurfaced following SoftBank's $5.8 billion sale of its stake in Nvidia, impacting investor sentiment in the AI sector [3] - Asian markets showed strength as optimism grew for a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown, which may influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [2][5] - Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook for China's monetary policy, delaying expectations for a "dual cut" in interest rates and reserve requirements to early 2026, indicating a less dovish stance from the People's Bank of China [4] Group 2 - Oil prices remained stable near $61 a barrel as traders awaited new forecasts from OPEC and the International Energy Agency regarding potential market surpluses from rising supply [6] - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Brad Jones noted that markets are struggling to accurately price geopolitical risks, with early signs of fragmentation in central bank gold holdings [7] - Sony launched a Japan-only, region-locked PlayStation 5 Digital Edition at ¥55,000, aiming to reclaim market share from rival Nintendo [8]