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Welcome back to Squawkbox. We are in Aspen, Colorado this morning with two former Treasury Secretaries uh who are uh the co-chairs of the Aspen Economic Group. Good morning to you.Hank Pollson is here. Tim Gner is here. Uh we just spoke to the president.Lots of questions about where our economy is today, what's going on with the tariffs, how you think about all this geopolitically, treasuries and everything. Um geopolitics, China. So I want to get to as much of this as we can.I just want to start though wit ...

"China is a powerhouse of building.. they can manufacture everything and anything under the sun faster than anyone else in the world, and that's a superpower they have."- @larsmoravy https://t.co/EsAIjCfAHN ...

Economic Indicators & Job Market - The White House acknowledges that recent job numbers were not as strong as expected, attributing downward revisions to statistical quirks like seasonal adjustments, with approximately 60% due to changing seasonal factors [2][3][4][5] - The report indicates a softening in the labor market, with potential contributions from border policies and uncertainty surrounding immigration policies affecting hiring decisions [6][9][10] - There's a modest decline in manufacturing employment and a more significant decline in manufacturing activity, raising concerns about the economy not delivering on promises of increased manufacturing and manufacturing jobs [11] Trade Policies & Tariffs - The original promise of 90 trade deals in 90 days was not met, with only 8 to 10 negotiated frameworks achieved, while some countries may receive extensions or return to the negotiating table [13][15] - Markets have become accustomed to tariff rates of 10%, with many countries facing rates closer to 15% to 20%, a significant increase from the previous rate of approximately 25% [18][19] - The tariffs have generated approximately $100 billion in revenue, but their effectiveness in creating jobs and boosting manufacturing in the US remains unproven [20] - The president's approach faces an inherent contradiction: high revenue collection implies continued imports, while successful relocation of production to the US would reduce imports and revenue [21][22] Legal & Political Challenges - The legality of the tariffs is being questioned, with potential challenges leading to a Supreme Court review that could take months or even a year to resolve [28] - If deemed unconstitutional, the US would no longer be able to collect the tariffs, though it's unclear if past tariffs would be refunded [29] - The Fed faces a dilemma with conflicting data: rising inflation potentially driven by tariffs versus softening job numbers, making it difficult to decide whether to cut rates [30][31]

Well, this is an odd one. 47.1% is our July read from MNI on the Chicago PMI. Manufacturing much better than expected, but still under 50.47.1% would be the best since March. But here's the issue. It's the 20th consecutive number under 50 in contraction mode. It's the 34th out of 35 under 50.The last time we had over 50 was November of 23, but prior to that, the entire year was under 50. So, it's definitely a weak number in general, but it's a strong number today. Dollar index, and we mentioned this yesterd ...

China's Economy & Trade Talks - China's economy is in relatively good shape, with July data showing improvement compared to June, although growth is not exceeding year-ago levels [1][2] - China has included export controls in trade negotiations, giving them significant leverage, particularly concerning rare earths and critical minerals [3][5] - The inclusion of export controls has created a situation of mutually assured destruction, giving China a choke point over the United States economy [6] Manufacturing Sector - Despite PMI data suggesting weakness, the manufacturing sector in China remains strong and continues to export [9][10] - While exports to the United States have contracted, there has been a surge in exports to Asia, indicating the manufacturing machine is still productive [10] - Manufacturing's strength is crucial as China currently lacks other significant growth drivers [11] Security Concerns & Chip Industry - China is raising potential security risks with chips, potentially as a response to concerns about Huawei [6] - There are concerns about the future ability to geographically track chips, leading to worries about transshipment and potential circumvention of regulations [7]

US-China Trade Relations - The US expressed concerns about China's global overcapacity and purchases of sanctioned Iranian oil, which account for approximately 90% of Iran's oil sales [2] - The US also expressed concerns about China selling approximately $15 billion of dual-use technologies to Russia [2] - The US reiterated its trade policy goals of reducing US deficits, increasing manufacturing, and reshoring the economy [3] - The US aims to "derisk" rather than "decouple" from China, focusing on strategic industries like rare earths, semiconductors, and medicines [5] - Discussions included accelerating the flow of rare earth magnets from China to US companies [4] - China had previously blocked all of their rare earth magnets, but now the US is receiving them [17] Trade Imbalances and Tariffs - China's economy is described as the most unbalanced in modern times, with 30% of global manufacturing and a 2% current account surplus of global GDP [13] - The US is tracking an annual trade deficit with China, but it is expected to be at least $50 billion smaller this year [15] - Section 232 investigations on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors will be applied globally, without targeting any specific country [16] - Potential tariffs on countries buying sanctioned Russian oil could range from 0% to 500%, with the US Senate considering a bill to grant the president discretion to apply secondary tariffs [37] Potential Tariff Pause and Future Discussions - A potential pause on tariff increases is under discussion, with a possible duration of 90 days [9][42] - If the pause is not extended, tariffs could revert to a 34% level, potentially reaching 80-85% depending on the product [18][20] - Further technical discussions are ongoing between the US and Chinese teams [10] - A phone call between President Xi and President Trump occurred in June, during which President Xi invited President Trump to Beijing [22][23] US Economic Outlook - The US economy is performing well, with the biggest downturn in inflation in four years observed in May [33][34] - The US is expected to receive a minimum of $300 billion in tariff income this year, representing 1% of GDP [41]

Astroenica beating second quarter revenue and profit expectations, citing robust sales of newer cancer, heart and kidney disease medicines. I did speak with the CEO about the quarter and he expected tariff impact on pricing weight loss drugs as well. I also asked about the company's recently announced $50 billion investment to expand manufacturing and research here in the US.Listen, the innovation in this country is tremendous. uh the US is leading uh the world in biioharmaceutical uh innovation and I think ...

Supply Chain Basics - A supply chain encompasses sourcing, manufacturing, and delivery, connecting a company to its suppliers and customers [1] - The supply chain process details how a product transitions from concept to consumer [1]

Production & Manufacturing - Arizona has proven capable of producing complex, advanced chips in the US [1] - The company plans to commence manufacturing this year and scale up production moving forward [3] - The AI action plan is expected to help provide necessary resources, including regulatory support and power, to prioritize chip manufacturing [2] - Achieving the goals will require sustained effort over multiple years [2][3] Industry & Policy - The administration's prioritization of chip manufacturing will likely influence industry priorities [2]