Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has begun cutting the federal funds rate, leading to market excitement and expectations of more cuts by year-end [1] - Current average mortgage rates for a 30-year loan are at 6.26%, which has deterred many potential homeowners and investors [1] - Rate cuts are expected to lower mortgage rates, but the relationship between federal funds rate and mortgage rates is not direct, as lower borrowing rates may also increase housing prices [2][3] Group 2 - The federal funds rate influences lenders' offerings and housing demand indirectly, as mortgage rates are more closely tied to Treasury yields and the bond market [3] - The impact of the Fed's rate cuts on Treasury bonds will take time to materialize, potentially delaying the effects on mortgage rates until early 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in 30-year mortgage rates following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is attributed to market expectations regarding future policy moves, despite the initial counterintuitive nature of this trend [1][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4% to 4.25% [4]. - This rate cut was anticipated by the market, which has historically seen mortgage rates react differently than expected [7]. Group 2: Mortgage Rate Movements - Following the Fed's announcement, the 30-year mortgage rate increased by 9 basis points to 6.22% on the same day, and then rose an additional 15 basis points to 6.37% the next day [5]. - In contrast, Freddie Mac's report indicated that mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in 12 months, as it collected data before and after the Fed's decision [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The spike in mortgage rates was relatively small and reflects how financial markets are interpreting the Fed's future policy direction [1]. - The crash of Mortgage News Daily's website during the announcement indicates a significant public interest in mortgage rate changes [4].

Let's stay on bonds and stocks and markets because we've got new highs across the board for equities. Nearly all major averages on pace for new records. The market seems to have adjusted to tariffs.But what happens if the Supreme Court rules that the tariffs are actually illegal. Would that hurt America's massive debt load. Let's talk about that and more.Joe Leavone is well known to our audience as a markets guy, but now serves as counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant. Joe, good to have you on the p ...

Group 1 - The equity markets are reaching new highs, indicating a market adjustment to tariffs, but potential Supreme Court rulings on tariffs could impact the U.S. debt load [1] - The Federal Reserve has cut its overnight lending rate, yet bond yields are rising, suggesting a complex market response [2][3] - Mortgage rates are nearing their lowest in a year, influenced by lower inflation and the Fed's movement towards a neutral stance [3] Group 2 - Tariffs are generating record revenue, contributing to a more sustainable fiscal position for the U.S., which may lead to lower interest rates over time [4][15] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has been criticized for its low estimates of potential GDP growth, which contradicts observed economic indicators such as strong blue-collar wage growth and capital expenditure recovery [12][13] - The CBO projects that tariffs could reduce deficits by $4 trillion over a decade, highlighting their significance in fiscal planning [15]

Mortgage rates, meantime, on the move after yesterday's rate cut. Let's get straight to Diana Ol for the latest. Diana.>> Well, Melissa, as we discussed on Tuesday before the Fed cut, mortgage rates could go up and they did. They went up 15 basis points this morning, adding to nine basis points that they rose yesterday, making 24 basis points specifically since the Fed cut its rate. And that all according to Mortgage News Daily.Now, that's because, you know, as many experts weighed in, they expected that pe ...

Mortgage rates continued to edge down, bringing about an uptick in refinancing applications, according to the latest Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey. 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.26% as of September 18, down from 6.35% last week but higher than 6.09% in the year-ago week. ...

Group 1 - Mortgage rates increased after the Federal Reserve's 25 basis-point cut, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising to 6.22% [1][2] - The Fed's interest rate decisions influence mortgage rates, but they do not directly control them, as noted by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [2][4] - Despite the Fed's rate cuts, mortgage rates have historically risen during similar periods, indicating uncertainty in future trends [4][5] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury yields initially fell but ended higher, influenced by a significant drop in unemployment claims [3] - Freddie Mac reported mortgage rates at 6.26%, the lowest since early October 2024, although much of the data was collected before the Fed's cut [4] - There is a notable increase in refinancing demand, surging 58% week-over-week and up 70% year-over-year, alongside a 3% rise in mortgage applications for home purchases [6]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have increased following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, which is a common but counterintuitive trend [1][2] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.35% from 6.13% just before the Fed's rate cut [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that while the Fed's decisions influence mortgage rates, there is no guaranteed outcome as the economy faces challenges [2] Mortgage Rate Trends - Prior to the recent increase, mortgage rates had been declining for several weeks as markets anticipated the Fed's cut and employment data showed a slowdown [4] - The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut did not lead to a decrease in mortgage rates, which have historically risen during previous rate cut periods [5] - Financial markets are expecting a more aggressive easing of monetary policy than what the Fed is likely to implement, suggesting limited further declines in mortgage rates [6] Borrower Behavior - There has been a significant increase in refinancing demand, which surged by 58% week-over-week and is up 70% year-over-year [7] - Mortgage applications for home purchases also saw a 3% increase week-over-week, indicating a potential uptick in market activity [7] - Despite the improvement in mortgage demand, home sales have remained sluggish due to high home prices and elevated mortgage rates [7][8]

Group 1 - The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage decreased to 6.26% from 6.35% last week, with a year-ago average of 6.09% [1] - The average rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 5.41% from 5.5% last week, compared to 5.15% a year ago [2] - The decline in mortgage rates is attributed to expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting rates for the first time since last year, with a quarter-point cut already implemented [3] Group 2 - The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has been mostly declining since late July, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and economic expectations [2][3] - The Federal Reserve projected it would lower its benchmark rate two more times this year, reflecting concerns over the U.S. job market [3]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have decreased for another week, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.26% and the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage at 5.41% [1] - The share of mortgage applications for refinancing has reached nearly 60%, the highest level since January 2022 [1] Mortgage Rates Overview - The current national average mortgage rates include: - 30-year fixed: 6.15% - 20-year fixed: 6.62% - 15-year fixed: 5.49% - 5/1 ARM: 6.82% - 7/1 ARM: 6.88% - 30-year VA: 5.75% - 15-year VA: 5.15% - 5/1 VA: 5.85% [4] - Another set of current rates shows: - 30-year fixed: 6.21% - 20-year fixed: 5.61% - 15-year fixed: 5.58% - 5/1 ARM: 6.97% - 7/1 ARM: 6.94% - 30-year VA: 5.78% - 15-year VA: 5.43% - 5/1 VA: 5.33% [5] Economic Impact on Mortgage Rates - The recent Fed quarter-point rate cut has not yet reflected in mortgage rates, and the "Fed effect" will be observed in the coming week [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield, which serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates, increased immediately after the Fed announcement, indicating potential volatility in mortgage rates [2] Refinancing Insights - The refinancing interest rates can be higher than purchase mortgage rates, which is a common trend [11] - The share of refinancing applications has surged, indicating a strong interest in refinancing among homeowners [1]