Just theoretically speaking out loud hereIf job market is bad, worse than they are initially letting onAnd the fear of recession is seriously in playThen wouldn't hard assets that are counter to the dollar increase?Things like crypto + gold?Gold already catching a HUGE bid.But sadly Crypto trading way more in-line with the equities marketWe wanted trad-fi capitalWe didn't want trad-fi pegged prices. ...

Economic Cycles - The economy functions like a machine, driven by short-term and long-term debt cycles [4] - Short-term debt cycles, typically lasting 5 to 8 years, are primarily controlled by the central bank through interest rate adjustments [5] - These cycles involve expansion fueled by credit, leading to inflation, followed by contraction (recession) when the central bank raises interest rates [1][2][3] - Long-term debt cycles occur because debts rise faster than incomes over decades, leading to a debt burden [6] - The ratio of debt to income is called the debt burden, which remains manageable as long as incomes rise [7] Debt and Credit - Spending increases are fueled by credit, which can be created instantly [1] - When credit is easily available, there's an economic expansion; when it's not, there's a recession [4] - Rising incomes and asset values help borrowers remain creditworthy for a long time, even with accumulating debt [8] - At some point, debt repayments grow faster than incomes, forcing people to cut back on spending, leading to a reversal of the cycle [9] - Debt burdens become too big, leading to deleveraging, as seen in 2008 in the United States and Europe [10][11] Inflation and Deflation - Inflation occurs when spending and incomes grow faster than the production of goods, causing prices to rise [1] - The central bank raises interest rates to combat inflation [2] - Deflation occurs when people spend less, causing prices to go down, leading to a recession [3] Human Behavior - People have an inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt, pushing the economy [5] - Lenders freely extend credit because everyone thinks things are going great, focusing on rising incomes and asset values [6] - People borrow huge amounts of money to buy assets as investments, causing their prices to rise even higher, creating a boom and potentially a bubble [8][7]

As for the broader market, uh, Dow settled into the red early this morning. Bob Doll is with us. Crossmart global CEO and CIO.Bob, it's good to have you. Thanks for joining us in advance of the number tomorrow. We know this is I mean, we always say the jobs number is one of the most important ever, but this could actually determine the the trajectory of rates in the medium term, wouldn't you say.Totally agree. You guys just covered the job situation very well. Look, the Jackson Hole speech was a pivot.it wa ...

While the focus is on a potential government shutdown, my next guest says historically geopolitical risk has actually been conducive to growth, productivity, and asset returns overall. So, it's not a risk, it may actually be an opportunity. Joining me now is Marco Pepic.He's the macro and geopolitical strategist over at BCA Research. Uh, this is a perfect conversation to have right now, Marco, because we've just now heard the update from Megan with regard to trade and tariffs, the update from Emily with reg ...

Overall, when you think about the macro environment environment right now, it has looked pretty benign. I mean, stocks are at a record high. The economy is hanging in there.We don't really see recession in sight. What What is your base case. >> I mean, the backdrop is pretty positive.I mean, again, stocks are high for a reason. Uh earnings growth has been good. Uh the tariff situation seems to have abaded in general, notwithstanding the recent court set of issues.And I think companies are performing in the ...

So, let's get to Steve Leeman, who is with one of the potential Fed picks, who seemed to have gotten more popular uh as time has been going by and and even before he was mentioned, we had talked about him and and talking about cuts way before that. Uh Chris Waller. Hi, Steve.>> Yes, we had uh Joe and I am joined by Fed Governor Chris Waller, who because he's right here, he's my pick right now. Thanks for joining us, Governor Waller. Um I want to start off with what uh is is among the most interesting things ...

🇺🇸 FED WALLER SAID ON CNBC- TARIFFS AREN'T GOING TO CAUSE LONG-RUN INFLATION- I DON’T SEE RECESSION, BUT A SLOWER GROWTH- TARRIF INFLATION WONT BE PERMANENT- SHOULD CUT RATES AT NEXT MEETINGBULLISH FOR THE MARKETS 🚀 ...

Switzerland’s manufacturing sector is mired in a recession that’s likely to get worse because of the 39% tariffs the US unexpectedly imposed on the country https://t.co/toVtaazuRc ...

Market Reactions to Fed Commentary - The market reacted positively to Powell's comments, indicating a shift towards an easing stance by the Fed, which surprised many investors [4][6][10] - There is a presupposition in the market that multiple rate cuts will occur, with discussions around three to four cuts anticipated by 2025 [10][11] Labor Market Insights - Powell's revision of job growth figures revealed a significant underestimation, with actual growth at 35,000 jobs per month instead of the previously thought 150,000 [5][9] - The labor market's rapid weakening could lead to a sharp rise in unemployment, influencing the Fed's decision-making [9][31] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is responding to anticipated rate cuts, with declining yields and rising bond prices, particularly in the short end of the yield curve [8][11] - A rally in the benchmark ten-year treasury indicates market expectations of economic slowdown [12][13] Tariff Implications - Tariffs are being viewed as a tax on corporations, affecting profit margins and potentially leading to layoffs if costs cannot be passed to consumers [14][15][19] - Consumer spending is slowing, with a notable shift towards discount retailers as consumers trade down due to rising costs [16][17] Housing Market Trends - The housing market is shifting to a buyer's market, with rising FHA delinquencies and foreclosures indicating distress [34][35] - The impact of student loan repayments on household credit is complicating the housing market dynamics [35][23] US Dollar Outlook - The US dollar is experiencing weakness as the market prices in a full easing cycle from the Fed, but global economic conditions may influence its recovery [38][40] - A crowded short position on the dollar could lead to a contrarian rebound as investors reassess the Fed's rate-cutting trajectory [40]

Let's talk about Jackson Hole and what we can expect from Jay Powell. So, the Fed really has to decide which of its mandates to emphasize right now. So, Pal's going to have to juggle this and what are we going to get from him.Are we going to get a hawkish message like we saw at his last press conference where he emphasized that the labor market was still in good shape. It's still stable, still healthy, and inflation is really where they're concerned about. Are you going to get something more dovish where he ...