These two market leaders have increased their dividends for a combined 115 years.It's impossible to predict with certainty whether a recession is coming, but certain developments sure make it more likely. President Donald Trump's tariff policies could lead to increased prices and plunge the economy into a downturn. The recent government shutdown, especially if it drags on, could lead us directly into a recession.Of course, that may not happen, but it's not a bad idea for investors to prepare for that possib ...

Market Performance - The stock market has been thriving throughout most of 2025, with the S&P 500 up by more than 14% and surging by 35% since its April lows [1][2] Valuation Concerns - Some investors are worried about potential overvaluation, suggesting that the market may be in a bubble that could burst [2] - The Buffett Indicator, which compares the total U.S. stock market value to GDP, is currently at around 220%, indicating risky territory [4][5] Historical Context - The last peak of the Buffett Indicator was in November 2021 at close to 193%, followed by a bear market that lasted nearly a year [5] - The ratio has not dipped below 80% since 2012, which Buffett indicated as a safer zone for investors [6] Future Outlook - While the Buffett Indicator suggests the market may be in the late stages of a bull market, it remains unclear if a recession is imminent [8] - Regardless of the timing of a potential downturn, it is advisable for investors to prepare for market volatility [9]

New Zealand businesses were less optimistic in the third quarter, raising the risk of another recession and deeper interest-rate cuts from the central bank https://t.co/dKyS9DQ0YP ...

The Trump administration is very much aligned with seeing the success of the American worker. So a number of the policies that are being effectuated really are about the average American family feeling that life is better and working better for them. This backdrop is fueling much of the enthusiasm that we see in markets in the United States.And then, of course, we're on a program of both fiscal and monetary stimulus that you would expect to see in the middle of a recession. We're seeing right here, right no ...

Group 1 - The global markets watchlist includes nine prominent indexes from various economies, such as the S&P 500, TSX, FTSE 100, DAXK, CAC 40, Nikkei 225, Shanghai, Hang Seng, and BSE SENSEX [1] - As of September 29, 2025, all nine indexes have shown gains, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng leading at a year-to-date gain of 37.4%, followed by Canada's TSX at 22.6% and Japan's Nikkei 225 at 20.2%. India's BSE SENSEX has the smallest gain at 2.3% [2] - A comparative performance chart illustrates the indexes' performance since March 9, 2009, showing the relative changes from their respective lows [5] Group 2 - A historical context is provided for the indexes, including their current values, all-time peaks, and the dates of those peaks, highlighting how far they are from record levels [3] - The performance of world markets is also analyzed in relation to recent recessions, starting from February 3, 2020, which marks the official start of the NBER recession [4] - A longer-term performance analysis begins from October 9, 2007, capturing the mid-point of market peaks for a comprehensive view of the indexes' relative performance [6]

[Music] Concerns are mounting over the US labor market after August jobs report revealed stark weakness with non-farm payrolls rising by just 22,000 far below the anticipated 75,000 and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3% unchanged from the previous month. This tepid growth could mean a potential stall, raising fears of a recessionary pressures signaled by cooling hiring and rising layoffs, which hit their highest level since 2020. Investors were eyeing September's data for signs of a rebound or a deepe ...

Key TakeawaysOPEC+ has agreed to a modest oil output increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in November, a decision reflecting internal divisions with Russia resisting large hikes and Saudi Arabia favoring a cautious approach amidst demand slowdown concerns.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicates significant progress in negotiations for the release of hostages held by Hamas, stating that 90% of the details have been resolved and expressing hope for finalization "very quickly, early this week ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economic landscape is marked by slowing job growth, recessionary pressures, and a dominant technology sector, with legislative and geopolitical uncertainties adding complexity [2] Labor Market Analysis - In September 2025, employers planned to add only 117,313 new jobs, the weakest hiring outlook in over a decade, representing a 71% decline from the previous year [3] - There were 54,064 job cuts announced in September, contributing to a year-to-date total of 946,426 layoffs, the highest since 2020 [3][7] - ADP reported a loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, with wage growth for job changers slowing to 6.6% from 7.1% in August [3] Recession Concerns - Economist Mark Zandi warned that states accounting for nearly one-third of U.S. GDP are either in recession or at high risk, citing tariffs, a weak housing market, and slowing job growth as contributing factors [4][7] Technology Sector Performance - The technology sector now accounts for a record 37% of the U.S. stock market, surpassing the peak during the 2000 dot-com bubble, driven by major companies like Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft [5][7] - The Nasdaq 100 has gained 114.72% over the past five years, while the price-to-earnings ratio for tech stocks is currently 56% of what it was at the dot-com bubble's peak, indicating a different market dynamic [5] Generational Financial Strain - Generation X faces a retirement crisis, carrying the highest average student loan debt at $47,857 per borrower, along with significant non-mortgage debt of $26,207 and average credit card debt of $9,557 [6][7] Tax Legislation Impact - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" introduces significant tax changes for 2025, including no federal tax on tips, a $10,000 deduction for U.S.-assembled car loan interest, and a $12,500 deduction for qualified overtime pay, potentially allowing millions to pay zero federal income tax [8][7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of following financial advice during market fluctuations, emphasizing that investors may regret not adhering to their adviser's guidance if the market continues to rise [1][2] - It highlights the current market conditions, noting that major indexes like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have reached new highs, indicating a strong market performance [6] - The article suggests that despite concerns about a potential market bubble driven by AI, historical trends indicate that the stock market is likely to continue its upward trajectory over time [6][11] Group 2 - The financial situation of the individual discussed includes a mix of assets such as a traditional IRA, 403(b), and home equity, with a focus on managing withdrawals and maintaining a sustainable retirement income [5][10] - The article presents a "bond-tent strategy," which involves adjusting bond allocations in relation to retirement timing to mitigate risks while ensuring a stable income [8] - It mentions the potential growth of the 403(b) over the next seven years, projecting a value of up to $1.5 million with a 7% average return, highlighting the importance of long-term investment strategies [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is on the brink of a significant contraction, with many states already experiencing recession, as stated by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics [1] Economic Conditions - The current economic indicators suggest a looming recession, highlighting the fragility of the U.S. economy [1] - Several states are reportedly already in a recession, indicating localized economic distress [1]