Speaking of new jobs, Kevin Hasset versus Kevin Worsh. Do you have an opinion. >> I either I do not make personnel decisions.You know, I think I think I think Kevin is I think Kevin is a fantastic name. Uh, [laughter] you know, it's it's a great >> I'll ask another way. So, so Kevin Hassets, you know, there's been some he's been dogged lately by by being too close to Trump. There's some, you know, there reports that there's been some concern uh voiced to the president around the fact that I don't know, mayb ...

Economic Data Release - The government plans to release several important economic data points between December 16 and December 18, which were delayed due to the government shutdown [2][5] - Key metrics include non-farm payrolls, retail sales, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which are critical for assessing the economy's performance and the Federal Reserve's potential actions regarding interest rates [5][7] Market Performance and Sentiment - The stock market has increased over 17.5% as of December 11, indicating a strong performance for the third consecutive year despite volatility [3] - Investors are facing uncertainty due to potential headwinds such as high inflation, recession risks, and stagflation concerns [3] Labor Market Insights - Non-farm payrolls data for October and November is expected to show a slump in October due to the government shutdown, with a rebound anticipated in November; the unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.4% [6][7] - The labor market's condition is a primary concern for the Federal Reserve, influencing its decisions on interest rate adjustments [6][9] Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Retail sales data is crucial as it reflects consumer demand, which is vital for an economy heavily reliant on consumer spending; stronger retail sales are expected during the holiday season [8] - The CPI is forecasted to increase by 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, serving as a key inflation gauge [8] Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Strategy - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting interest rates if the labor market shows weakness and inflation remains subdued, as lower rates can stimulate economic growth [9][10] - The Fed aims to avoid stagflation, where high inflation coincides with rising unemployment, complicating its ability to support the labor market [10]

Economic Outlook - The US is experiencing record highs of debt and a shrinking job market with surging unemployment [1] - A fiscal situation similar to the post-2008 recession is anticipated [1] - Lower interest rates will likely send risk-on assets higher [2] Monetary Policy - The idea of getting rates to 1% is a concern due to potential inflation [1] - Rates near or sub 2% next year could be on the table, pending the Fed chair [1] - Companies are able to borrow capital at a low cost with low rates [2] Investment Strategy - Higher rates for longer are expected sooner rather than later [2]

Economic Indicators - U.S. payrolls are expected to have increased by 35,000 in November, according to a Reuters poll, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggesting that the actual average could be a loss of 20,000 per month instead of the reported average gain of 40,000 since April [1][7] - Marvin Loh, a senior global macro strategist at State Street, indicated that negative job prints would lead to discussions about a potential recession [1] Stock Market Performance - Wall Street faced pressure as the S&P 500 fell by 1.1% from its all-time high, marking its worst day in three weeks, while the Nasdaq composite dropped by 1.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 245 points, or 0.5% [2][4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has less emphasis on technology stocks, rose by 1% over the past week, contrasting with the Nasdaq composite's decline of 1.6% [5][7] Bond Market Influence - The yield on the 10-year Treasury increased to 4.18% from 4.14%, which can deter investors from paying high prices for stocks, especially when valuations are perceived as excessive [4]

Core Viewpoint - Stifel projects a 9% upside for the S&P 500 in 2026 under stable economic conditions, but warns of a potential 20% decline if a recession occurs [1][7]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has increased its growth forecast for 2026, with Stifel assigning a 25% probability of a recession occurring [2]. - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with rising unemployment and layoffs, which could negatively impact consumer spending that constitutes 68% of GDP [3]. Market Conditions - Stock valuations are historically high, with the median pullback during recessionary periods since World War II averaging 20% [4]. - The S&P 500's equity risk premium is nearing levels seen during the dot-com bubble, indicating potential overvaluation [8]. Investment Strategy - Stifel recommends building hedge positions with defensive stocks to mitigate risks associated with a potential bear market [9]. - Speculative assets have already seen significant declines, suggesting a broader market downturn could follow [5].

Core Viewpoint - Visa Inc. is considered one of the best companies for investors to include in their portfolios due to its high-quality operations [1] Company Analysis - Visa Inc. is recognized for its strong market position and quality, making it a favorable choice for long-term investment [1] Investment Strategy - The focus is on dividend investing in quality blue-chip stocks, with an emphasis on building investment portfolios that can provide financial independence [2]

Core Viewpoint - Stifel projects a 9% upside for the S&P 500 in 2026 if the US economy remains stable, but warns of a potential 20% decline in the event of a recession [1][2] Economic Outlook - A recession is not the base case for Stifel or other major banks, with a 25% chance assigned to a downturn occurring next year [2] - The Federal Reserve has increased its growth forecast for 2026, indicating a more optimistic economic outlook [2] Labor Market Concerns - The labor market shows signs of instability, with rising unemployment and layoffs, which could lead to reduced consumer spending [3] - Consumer spending accounts for 68% of GDP, making its decline a significant concern for economic health [3] Stock Valuation Risks - Current stock valuations are historically high, with median pullbacks during recessions averaging 20% and average drops at 23% since World War II [4] - The S&P 500 is considered expensive, and P/E ratios may become critical in a downturn [4] Speculative Assets and Market Behavior - In the event of a bear market, speculative assets are expected to decline first, followed by the broader market [5] - A basket of seven highly-volatile stocks has already seen significant declines, indicating a shift in market sentiment [5] Defensive Investment Recommendations - Despite a positive base case for the S&P 500, Stifel recommends building hedge positions with defensive stocks [6] - Suggested funds for exposure to defensive assets include Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), and iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) [6]

Tracey Ryniec and Zacks Chief Equity Strategist, John Blank, look at the US economy and 5 stocks to buy in 2026. Visit our website: https://www.zacks.com Visit our Stocktwits account: https://stocktwits.com/ZacksResearch Check out our weekly promotion: https://www.zacks.com/promo If you're interested in our services, please check out Zacks Ultimate: https://www.zacks.com/ultimate/?adid=YOUTUBE&cid=sm-YOUTUBE ...

CREDIT FIRM. VICTOR, WHAT YEAR IT HAS BEEN FOR CREDIT. THIS IS AN INDUSTRY THAT HAS BEEN IN FEARS DEFENSE OF ITSELF, BLUE OWL VOCALLY SAYING YOU ARE WRONG, JAMIE DIMON.THINGS ARE NOT WRONG. YOU MAY BE SIDE A LITTLE MORE WITH JAMIE DIMON IN THIS ARGUMENT. VICTOR: WE ARE LIVING IN A WORLD WHERE IT IS TRULY A K-SHAPED WORLD.TECH, DATA CENTERS, FINANCING THEM, BUILDING THEM, GOING OUT WITH THESE VALUATIONS, THAT IS A VERY HOT MARKET. THERE IS A WHOLE OTHER PIECE OF THE INDUSTRY, THE BOTTOM PART OF THE K. WHEN W ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic landscape is characterized as a K-shaped economy, where certain sectors, particularly technology and data centers, are thriving, while others, such as manufacturing and chemicals, are experiencing significant downturns [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The manufacturing sector in the U.S. has faced nine consecutive months of negative growth, indicating a recessionary trend [4]. - Despite the challenges in manufacturing, there is no expectation of an imminent large-scale recession, as the overall economic outlook remains cautious but stable [4][17]. - The leveraged credit market is under pressure due to higher interest rates and stagnant earnings in many businesses, necessitating a focus on capital restructuring [5][10]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There are numerous companies with significant debt levels, particularly those with debts exceeding $2 billion, which are now trading at distressed prices, indicating potential investment opportunities for restructuring [9][13]. - Many businesses are over-leveraged and require additional capital to stabilize their balance sheets, presenting opportunities for private credit investments [11][13]. - The high-yield market is expected to see increased supply as hyperscalers are borrowing, which may lead to widening spreads in the absence of a recession [18]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - There is growing attention from regulators regarding the need for stress testing in the credit market, similar to banking regulations, which could impact alternative lenders [14][15]. - The competitive landscape among lenders is shifting, with banks gaining more flexibility, potentially affecting the dynamics of private credit markets [15][16].