ROMAINE: A SOLID U.S. ECONOMY OR CUTS TO INTEREST RATES. INVESTORS WEIGH IN ON WHICH IS MORE IMPORTANT. >> WE ARE KICKING YOU OFF TO THE CLOSING BELL HERE IN THE WEST LET'S GET A CHECK OF WHERE MARKETS STAND. DOWN FOR A THIRD DAY IN THE ROW ON THE MAJOR EQUITY INDEXES. THE S&P 500, 66 HUNDRED EVEN. NASDAQ FALLING HALF OF A PERCENT. YOU DO SEE SOME OF THE BIG TECH STOCKS DRAGGING US DOWN AND NOTABLY TESLA. I'M WATCHING THE FRONT END OF THE CURVE CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE BACKEND. UP ALMOST SIX BASIC -- ...

Hello everyone. Today we are going to deeply analyze all the current economic data with the goal of deciding whether we are bullish or bearish right now. We'll discuss the US government's new obsession with buying equity and important companies.And finally, we're going to ponder the big question of whether the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is that going to remain or not. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano. [Music] Before we get into today's episode, I need your help.My goal is to get to 1 million sub ...

Core Insights - The U.S. economy expanded at a surprising 3.8% from April to June, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3% [3][5] - Consumer spending rose at a 2.5% pace, up from 0.6% in the first quarter, indicating stronger consumer resilience amid trade uncertainties [5][6] - A notable decline in imports at a 29.3% pace contributed over 5 percentage points to the second-quarter growth, reversing the trend from the first quarter [4][5] Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP rebounded from a 0.6% drop in the first quarter, which was the first decline in three years, primarily due to increased imports [3][4] - The underlying strength of the economy, measured by a specific GDP category, grew by 2.9% from April to June, up from 1.9% in the first quarter [6][7] - Private investment fell, including a 5.1% drop in residential investment, and federal government spending also decreased at a 5.3% annual pace [7][12] Labor Market - Job creation has slowed significantly, with an average of 53,000 new jobs added per month since March, down from an average of 147,000 previously reported [12][13] - The Labor Department is expected to report a modest addition of 43,000 jobs in September, with unemployment likely remaining at 4.3% [14][15] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since December, with expectations of two more cuts this year, although strong GDP growth may influence their decision [15][16] - The Fed will closely monitor the upcoming personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for inflation trends [15]

Market Overview - Stocks experienced further downside on Thursday, continuing a pullback after reaching record closing highs earlier in the week. The Nasdaq fell by 113.16 points (0.5%) to 22,384.70, the S&P 500 declined by 33.25 points (0.5%) to 6,604.72, and the Dow dropped by 173.96 points (0.4%) to 45,947.32 [1] Economic Indicators - The Labor Department reported a decrease in initial jobless claims, falling to 218,000, down by 14,000 from the previous week's revised level of 232,000, contrary to economists' expectations of an increase to 235,000 [3] - Jobless claims have now pulled back from a nearly four-year high, reaching the lowest level since July 19th when they hit 217,000. Additionally, there was an unexpected surge in durable goods orders for August and stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter [4] Sector Performance - Airline stocks saw a significant decline, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index dropping by 2.9% to its lowest closing level in over a month. Pharmaceutical stocks also faced weakness, as indicated by a 2.0% slump in the NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index, which ended at a one-month closing low [6] - Biotechnology, healthcare, and computer hardware stocks experienced considerable weakness, while gold stocks performed well amid an increase in gold prices [7] Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve's September dot plot suggested potential rate cuts in the upcoming meetings in late October and December, although the likelihood of consecutive cuts remains uncertain [5] - The bond market showed continued weakness following positive U.S. economic data, with the yield on the benchmark ten-year note rising by 2.5 basis points to 4.172% [9]

Joining me now is the Wall Street Journal's chief economics correspondent, Nick Timmeros. It's great to have you back. Nice to see you.>> Thanks for having me, Scott. >> Seems like Mr. . Griffin is aligned with many on on the Fed right now.Maybe you'll get one. But there seems to be caution expressed by many of the Fed speakers we've heard this week, including today Austin Goulby said, quote, "I'm just a little uneasy with too much frontloading until we're sure that inflation is is coming down." >> Yeah, th ...

Let's get more on that burst of positive economic news out this morning. Refllies inflation adjusted GDP for the second quarter came in at a healthy 3.8%. That was stronger than the 3.3% figure that was previously reported.And meanwhile, in a sign of strength for the labor market, initial jobless claims edged lower to 218,000 and July existing home sales, which just crossed ticked higher to just over 4 million. So, how does the US economy keep chugging along amid what seems like a drum beat of dire predicti ...

Front and center this hour, the state of the AI trade. Many of the biggest names down again today. Has it left this market vulnerable to a larger pullback.We will discuss that with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour today, Josh Brown, Joe Cheranova, Bill Baroo, and Jim Leenthal. So, we've said stocks are down again, which they are across the board.Not by a large amount obviously, but nonetheless, uh the consistency of today's move uh is one that we're watching. Rates are an issue, and they re ...

Market Outlook - Piper Sandler expects improving EPS breadth to take over after three years of PE expansion [2] - The market has priced in very little macro risk, making further multiple expansion difficult, earnings will need to drive growth [3] - Stable to slightly lower interest rates over the last two and a half years provide tailwinds to the economy [5] - Globally, there have been approximately 95 rate cuts in the last several quarters [5] - Analyst estimates are starting to broaden out, and housing data is stabilizing to slightly improve [6] - Rising small cap and midcap earnings estimates are observed for the first time in three years [7] Economic Indicators - The current backdrop is considered a Goldilocks scenario, with a soft enough labor market to allow gradual rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] - Broadening of earnings estimates has been strong across mid, small, and large caps in the last two months [10] - Green shoots are appearing in housing data, with purchase applications and refi activity continuing to grind higher [10] - The Fed funds rate is 125 basis points lower and is expected to be another quarter point lower by year end [11]

Economic Overview - The US economy grew at a revised annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years [2][9][12] - Jobless claims fell to 218,000, down from an expected 233,000, indicating a stronger labor market [11][12] Trade and Tariffs - The Trump administration is considering additional tariffs on imports, including robotics and medical devices, which could increase costs for consumers and manufacturers [3][6] - A recent tariff reduction from 25% to 15% on EU cars and parts is expected to ease concerns in the European car sector [23][24] Company News - Starbucks announced a billion-dollar restructuring plan, which includes cutting 900 jobs and closing unprofitable stores [3][31] - CoreWeave expanded its partnership with OpenAI, increasing the total contract value to approximately $22.4 billion for AI model training [32] - CarMax shares dropped 18% after reporting a surprise decline in comparable sales, attributed to consumers rushing to buy vehicles before tariffs were imposed [33] Market Trends - The tech sector is experiencing a pullback, with concerns about a potential tech bubble as major companies engage in multi-billion dollar deals [35][36] - Analysts suggest a barbell strategy for investment, balancing high-growth tech stocks with more defensive, lower-volatility stocks [41][44]

Economic Indicators - The US Q2 GDP was revised upward to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), exceeding expectations of no change at +3.3% [2] - Q2 personal consumption was also revised upward to +2.5%, stronger than the anticipated +1.7% [2] - The Q2 core PCE price index was unexpectedly revised upward to +2.6%, surpassing expectations of no change at +2.5% [2] Labor Market - Weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -14,000 to a 2-month low of 218,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected increase to 233,000 [3] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid noted that the labor market remains largely in balance despite signs of cooling [4] Capital Spending - August core capital goods new orders (excluding defense and aircraft) rose by +0.6% month-over-month, stronger than expectations of no change [3] Federal Reserve Policy - Comments from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid suggest that the Fed may not need to lower interest rates soon, maintaining a "slightly restrictive" policy stance to combat high inflation [4] - Markets are pricing in an 84% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [4] Currency Market - The dollar index (DXY) increased by +0.43% to a 3-week high, driven by hawkish US economic reports and liquidity demand due to stock market weakness [1] - The EUR/USD pair decreased by -0.44% to a 2-week low, influenced by the dollar's strength and central bank divergence, with the ECB seen as nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle [5]