Market Volatility & Seasonality - August is typically a high volatility month and not favorable for bulls, with the VIX potentially rising by 18% [2][3] - Markets are exhibiting cautiousness due to seasonality and other factors [4] Meme Stock Frenzy & Market Breadth - The current meme stock frenzy is less widespread and contained compared to previous instances post-COVID [5][6] - Benchmark FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) hasn't been observed yet, indicating a lack of widespread panic buying [9] Sector Rotation & Underlying Market Dynamics - Significant rotations are occurring between factors like momentum versus value, but are masked by benchmark performance and concentration risk [13][14] - The market is likened to a paddling duck, with furious activity underneath a seemingly calm surface, indicating massive rotations [12][13] Nvidia Sentiment - Ahead of August 27th, there's bearish sentiment towards Nvidia, contrasting with the exuberance seen in May 2021 [8]

Market Volatility & Trends - August 5th is statistically the most volatile day for U S stocks based on the average move in the VIX since 1990, but the current August shows calmness [1] - Summer markets typically drift higher but are prone to sudden sell-offs, sometimes due to inexplicable moves [3] - Positive price action at the beginning of the week should be viewed with caution due to lower trading volumes, with S&P 500 volumes being approximately 23% below the 22-day average [4] Catalysts & Concerns - Tariffs remain a slow-moving catalyst with potential for negativity [5] - The market is awaiting CPI data next week, anticipating a positive drift this week [6] - Concerns exist regarding material damage from last Friday's data and Trump's actions against bailout measures [6] Investment Strategy & Outlook - The speaker remains long-term bullish on global equities due to abundant liquidity worldwide, including increasing liquidity from China [7] - US stocks are expected to continue to underperform, a trend observed since the end of January [7] - There is a short-term window for a "Sell America" narrative in August due to shifting growth narratives, particularly negative for the US [8][9]

Hello and welcome to Ask Me for a Trend. I'm Josh Lipton and for the next half hour, we are breaking down the trends of today that'll move stocks tomorrow. There's a lot to keep track of, so we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve. Here's some of the trends we're going to be diving into.Stocks jumped Monday as investors clawed back losses from Friday's trading. At the end of the session, all major indices ended the day higher. And it is a hot summer for investors.We're taking a dee ...

Market Sentiment & Risk Appetite - The US stock market is perceived as a "casino" driven by retail zeroday option trading, accounting for approximately two-thirds of daily option volumes [1] - Extreme greed is currently measured in the market, as indicated by the fear and greed index [2] - Risktakers are seeking volatility and high dopamine, favoring short-term gains over long-term investments [3] - There is significant risk-taking behavior driven by retail investors [4] Investment Trends & Market Performance - Goldman Sachs nonprofitable tech index has increased by 66% since its April low [2] - Berkshire Hathaway is underperforming the S&P 500 by almost 23 percentage points since Buffett's retirement announcement [3] Economic Factors - Accelerated devaluation of the dollar is pushing individuals to invest in assets [2]

The volatility has significantly gone down on #Bitcoin in this cycle, as we're stagnant in ranges for long periods of time.I don't think we'll be seeing a clear-cut case that we'll be peaking with the markets in Q4 of 2025.There's nothing comparable to the previous cycle during this cycle, making it more relevant that we'll have a significantly longer cycle than the standard 4-year cycle, resulting in way higher rewards.I would assume we'll see a peak in Q4 2026 or perhaps even 2027. ...

Market Reaction and Data Trust - The market is likely to react to the surprise in data, potentially leading to back and forth trading sessions [2][3] - The industry continues to trust the data, despite recent revisions and estimations in inflationary reports [5] - Every report needs scrutiny due to the coinciding turn in Fed policy, requiring an overall mosaic approach [6] Fed Policy and Labor Market - The Fed might have acted differently on rate policy with correct data, but full consensus for a cut last week was uncertain [8] - The market perceives the labor market as more important than inflation, a view telegraphed by the Fed [8][9] - Fears of the Fed being behind the curve are expected to escalate into September [9] - Political challenges of elevated unemployment are considered more acute to the Fed historically [11] Investment Strategy - Current guidance advises clients to stay overly diversified, which has driven performance across risk spectrums this year [12] - Fixed income acted as a ballast during the equity drawdown, and some foreign markets have been supportive [12][13] - The industry is constantly looking for opportunities to add or incrementally take down risk depending on the environment [13]

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7/ This reflects that volatility has declined significantly with daily changes ranging from –1.2 to +1.6 percentage points, compared to swings of up to 16 percentage points in earlier years.This begs the question: will $BTC surpass 70% or are altcoins primed for another cycle? ...